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26Oct2015 Market Update: Averages Mixed, Volume Low, Texas Tea Looks Weak And May Fall Below 44, Short-Term Session Indicators Bearish

Written by Gary

US markets opened fractionally lower, Large caps mostly in the red, small caps flat but in the green. Volume is lacking indicating not all investors are on the recent bullish train to nowhere.

WTI oil slipped to 43.95, but rejected falling any further and is showing some strength for now while the US dollar is trending down albeit slowly. Short term-indicators are bearish signaling averages could end in the red by the close.

Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

North and South American markets are lower today with shares in Brazil off the most. The Bovespa is down 0.43% while Mexico's IPC is off 0.35% and U.S.'s S&P 500 is lower by 0.16%.

Traders Corner - Health of the Market

Index Description Current Value Members Sentiment: % Bullish (the balance is Bearish) 69%
CNN's Fear & Greed Index Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear 61%
Investors Intelligence sets the breath Above 50 bullish 44.7% Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold. 39.70 NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($NYA200R) $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Dropping below 40%-35% signals serious continuing weakness and falling averages. 36.60% NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. 50.44% S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction. 62.80% 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) ten year note index value 20.62 Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) As long as the consumer discretionary holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy 80.16 NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors 10,469

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Crude oil down, extending two-week slide on product glut worry

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Crude prices edged lower on Monday, staying under pressure after two straight weeks of losses, on worries that the oversupply in oil products could swell from unseasonably warm weather and the waning maintenance cycle for U.S. refineries.

U.S. new homes sales near one-year low; drop seen as temporary

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - New U.S. single-family home sales fell to near a one-year low in September after two straight months of gains, but a jump in prices suggested that housing remained on solid ground.

With global outlook weak, many U.S. companies tighten belts

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. companies are far from optimistic that next year will see them get a break from the tough economic and market conditions they have faced in 2015. And that may well hurt capital investment and jobs growth.

Wall St. slightly down as Apple, energy stocks weigh

(Reuters) - Wall Street was slightly down on Monday as energy stocks fell on concerns of a crude oil supply glut and Apple's shares retreated a day ahead of its quarterly results.

Bridgestone to buy U.S. auto parts retailer Pep Boys

(Reuters) - Japanese tire maker Bridgestone Corp said it would buy auto parts retailer Pep Boys-Manny, Moe & Jack for $835 million to expand its retail presence in the United States.

Wall Street Shocked As Feds Bring Criminal Case Against Goldman Banker Over Fed Leaks

Perhaps it was the public shaming of Iceland's diametrically opposite approach to 'dealing' with its bankers, or perhaps Janet Yellen needs a distraction from her own 'Fed Leak' problems, or finally perhaps Carmen Segarra's 2013 whistleblowing over the cozy relationship between Goldman and The New York Fed was just too conspicuous to brush under the carpet. Despite Bill Dudley's insistence that The New York Fed is not a subsidiary of Goldman, The NY Times reports, federal prosecutors are preparing to announce a criminal case this week against a former Goldman banker suspected of taking confidential documents from a source inside the government.

As we previously detailed, this is what happened in July 2014:

From his desk in Lower Manhattan, a banker at Goldman Sachs thumbed through confidential documents — courtesy of a source inside the United States government.

The banker came to Goldman through the so-called revolving door, the symbolic portal that connects financial regulators to Wall Street. He joined in July after spending seven years as a regulator at the Federal Reserve Bank o ...

NatGas Crashes To April 2012 Lows On Weather, Inventories

For once, blaming the weather is not a 'joke'. Natural gas futures fell to the lowest since April 2012 as traders reacted to near-record inventories and mild weather that’s pushing back the start of winter demand for the heating fuel.


To April 2012 lows...

As Bloomberg details

The eastern U.S. may be warmer than usual from Nov. 1 to Nov. 10, according to Commodity Weather Group. Washington might reach 74 degrees Fahrenheit (23 Celsius) on Nov. 5, 12 degrees above normal, AccuWeather data show. The city’s low on that day could be 54 degrees, 10 above normal.

Stockpiles totaled 3.81 trillion cubic feet Oct. 16, 4.5 percent above the 5-year average, according to a government report. BofA Merrill Lynch analysts lowered their year-end price target.

“The pressure is on here with the lack of weather and the storage situation,†John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC, a New York-based hedge fund, said by phone. “It’s really gotten the attention of a lot of investors suddenly just how oversupplied we are.â€

Charts: bloomberg

Moody's Says Failure To Raise Debt Limit Does Not Mean Default As Jack Lew Pleads To "Honor Our Obligations"

In an op-ed released today in the USA Today, the US Treasury Secretary takes his appeal to raise the U.S. debt target once again, this time to the $19.6 trillion number disclosed here previously, by pointing fingers at "some in Congress" who "are endangering this progress by once again manufacturing a crisis for our country. By waiting to the last minute to act on the debt limit, Congress could cause a terrible accident. This is not an abstraction; failure to raise the debt limit would mean devastating impacts for taxpayers, consumers and businesses."

The reason for his hyperventilation is that the US is within either days until the Treasury runs out of borrowing authority on Nov. 3.

Increasing the debt limit does not authorize future spending or fund new programs â€" it merely enables us to pay the obligations that Congress has already incurred. This includes paying the salaries of our troops, providing benefits to veterans and Social Security recipients, and reimbursing hospitals for taking care of the sick. One former Republican governor likened refusing to raise the debt limit to eating a meal and leaving a restaurant without paying. In this case, the full faith and credit of the United States is at stake.

Not really.

In a report released earlier today, rating agency Moody's (the one that did not downgrade the US in August 2011 and saved itself a lawsuit by Tim Geithner unlike the less lucky S&P), reported that "failure to raise the US government's (Aaa stable) statutory debt limit before the Treasury has exhausted the "extraordinary measures" that it is using to fund the government's spending, does not ...

Valeant: No Illegal Activity at Company

Valeant defended itself, saying it had properly accounted for its relationships with specialty pharmacies and had found no illegal activity at the company.

ICE to Buy Interactive Data for $5.2 Billion

Intercontinental Exchange agreed to buy Interactive Data for about $5.2 billion, a bet that corporate bonds are increasingly going to be traded on electronic exchanges and other marketplaces.

U.S. Oil Imports Rise Again

U.S. imports of foreign oil are rising again after a long decline, as the oil bust forces domestic producers to scale back.

October 2015 Texas Manufacturing Survey Manufacturing Activity Remains in Expansion.

Of the four Federal Reserve districts which have released their October manufacturing surveys - three are in contraction except the Dallas Manufacturinng Outlook which is in expansion. A complete summary follows.

Earnings Outlook: What to expect from LinkedIn's earnings

LinkedIn is scheduled to report third-quarter earnings after the bell Thursday and analysts hope to see a firmed up core business.

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