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19Oct2015 Market Update: Morning Session Highs Slip As Mr. Market Says, 'Not So Fast', Oil Prices Slip Further, Green Afternoon Session In Doubt

Written by Gary

U.S. Markets spent the morning session climbing out of the lower opening to the green side only to see the Sp500 fail to move higher than 1234 short of the 1245 resistance. Maybe the markets are pausing before climbing higher. Slipping oil prices and the U.S. dollar trying to melt-up are keeping investors in check awaiting a test of the SP500 test of the 2020 support.

Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

North and South American markets are mixed today. The IPC is up 0.14% while the Bovespa gains 0.04%. The S&P 500 is off 0.17%.

Traders Corner - Health of the Market

Index Description Current Value Members Sentiment: % Bullish (the balance is Bearish) 72%
CNN's Fear & Greed Index Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear 48%
Investors Intelligence sets the breath Above 50 bullish 40.7% Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold. 55.56 NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($NYA200R) $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Dropping below 40%-35% signals serious continuing weakness and falling averages. 32.29% NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. 47.03% S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction. 53.60% 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) ten year note index value 20.46 Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) As long as the consumer discretionary holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy 78.54 NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors 10,383

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Weight Watchers shares soar after Oprah investment

(Reuters) - Oprah Winfrey and Weight Watchers International Inc are teaming up in an attempt to transform the dieting company into a broader health and fitness brand, sending the company's shares up almost 90 percent.

Morgan Stanley's weak results send its shares plunging

(Reuters) - Wall Street bank Morgan Stanley reported a quarterly profit that fell far short of market expectations and offered little hope that things would improve anytime soon, capping a generally gloomy quarter for big U.S. banks.

Halliburton revenue misses on weak drilling in North America

(Reuters) - Halliburton Co , the world's No.2 oilfield services provider, reported a bigger-than-expected 36 percent drop in quarterly revenue, hurt by weak drilling and pricing in North America.

Dow, S&P 500 fall after Morgan Stanley results; oil slips

(Reuters) - The Dow and S&P 500 indexes were lower on Monday after a slide in oil prices and a swathe of weak quarterly results led by Morgan Stanley but a recovery in healthcare and biotech stocks pushed the Nasdaq Composite up.

Hasbro revenue misses as sales of games, girls' toys fall further

(Reuters) - Toymaker Hasbro Inc reported lower-than-expected quarterly revenue, hurt by a strong dollar and lower sales of its games and toys for girls.

Oil down 3 percent; tumbling gasoline adds to China, Iran worries

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Crude oil fell 3 percent on Monday as tumbling gasoline prices deepened a selloff sparked by China's slowing growth and signs that a nuclear deal waiving sanctions on Iranian oil will be implemented this year.

Valeant CEO sees new drug pricing environment ahead

(Reuters) - Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc , which has come under fire for raising drug prices and is being investigated by the U.S. government, predicted on Monday that lower price increases are ahead for the whole industry.

Spain's public prosecutor pushes for VW investigation

MADRID (Reuters) - Spain's public prosecutor has asked the country's High Court to investigate German carmaker Volkswagen and the scandal surrounding its rigging of diesel emissions tests, according to a court document seen by Reuters.

United says to release more details about CEO's hospitalization

(Reuters) - United Continental Holdings Inc said it expected to release more details about the hospitalization of its chief executive officer, Oscar Munoz, later on Monday or on Tuesday.

Traders Are Panic-Selling T-Bills After Jack Lew Warns Of "Terrible" Debt Limit Accident

The one-month-ish Treasury Bills that mature November 18th are collapsing. Following comments this morning by Treasury Secretary Jack Lew that the US will run out of cash on November 3rd and his warning of a "terrible" debt limit accident, the 11/18/15 T-Bills have seen yields explode from -1bp to 7bps - an unprecedented 8bps spike as investors panic-sell beyond the deadline.

WI 1month bills are over 11bps!

"Our best estimate is November 3rd is when we'll exhaust what we call extraordinary measures; those are things we can do to manage things. I will run out of things that I can manage on November 3rd," Lew told CNBC's "Squawk Box."

Lew insisted that a hike is not a commitment to new spending but an ability to pay the bills on money already spent. Conservatives have in the past targeted the borrowing limit as leverage in budget negotiations.

Lew dismissed the idea that the government could prioritize what bills to pay. "Once you no longer consider all of your obligations rock solid, you're no longer the full faith and credit of the United States."

"It's also not possible to pick and choose. We have about 80 million transactions a month. Our system wasn't set up not to pay," he added.

So that leaves less then 2 weeks for the dysfuncti ...

The Greatest Central Banking Con Job in History...

One of the greatest con jobs in history was convincing ordinary people that Central Bankers care about the "economy" or Main Street.

Aside from the complete lack of relevance that Main Street has for Central Bankers from a professional perspective (more on this in a moment), when do you think was the last time that Janet Yellen or her ilk spent an evening with non-banker/financial types? Years ago? Decades ago?

Yellen lives in a super-affluent, gated part of Washington DC. And even within that subset of the US population she lives in a higher echelon: her entourage of security annoys her wealthy neighbors... though I suspect part of the annoyance stems from jealousy.

Regarding professional significance... why would Janet Yellen care about ordinary people? They're just data points in her financial models. Ordinary people didn't place her at the Fed (the big banks did). And they didn't place her as Fed Chair (the financial/ political elite did... with the express intent of gaining future favors).

Think of it this way... imagine there was a super cartel of English Professors who controlled what words you or I could use in daily conversation. These individuals literally could change the structure of the human language if they wanted... removing words or adding words at random.

Now imagine that they randomly pick out a low level English Professor who they elevate to being the face of their organization. Do you think this professor would give a damn about how her decisions/ words affected speech? She literally was made one of the most powerful people in the world by this cartel.

This is case worldwide. Most Central Bankers came up from the Too Big To Fails or Primary Dealers (or they are academics like Yellen or Bernanke who get their first taste of the "real wo ...

Oil Market Showdown: Can Russia Outlast The Saudis?

Submitted by Dalan McEndree via,

"Two men enter, one man leaves, two men enter, one man leaves, two men enter..."

Mad Max: Beyond Thunderdome

November 27, oil consuming countries will celebrate the first anniversary of the Saudi decision to let market forces determine prices. This decision set crude prices on a downward path. Subsequently, to defend market share, the Saudis increased production, which exacerbated market oversupply and further pressured prices.

While the sharp decline in crude prices has saved crude consuming nations hundreds of billions of dollars, the loss in revenues has caused crude exporting countries intense economic and financial pain. Their suffering has led some to call for a change in strategy to "balance" the market and boost prices. Venezuela, an OPEC member, has even proposed an emergency summit meeting.

In practice, the call for a change is a call for Saudi Arabia and Russia, the two dominant global crude exporters, which each daily export over seven-plus mmbbls (including condensates and NGLs) and which each see the other as the key to any "balancing" moves, to bear the brunt of any production cuts.

Both, it would seem, have incentive to do so, as each has lost over $100 billion in crude revenues in 2015—and Russia bears the extra burden of U.S. and EU Ukraine-related economic and financial sanctions. Yet, while both publicly profess willingness to discuss market conditions, neither has shown any real inclination to reduce output&mda ...

Weight Watchers Supersize Short-Squeezed After Oprah Gobbles Up Stake

Weaight Watchers' shorts were the biggest losers this morning as Oprah Winfrey unveils a 10% stake in the greed-is-not-good company. WTW rose 100% on the news as Oprah takes a board seat and has begun a 'program' to lose weight. With 57% of the float short, (and Oprah with an option to take 5% more), all she has to do is convince 30% of investors to pull their borrow and the 100% gains suddenly become a "Volkswagen"-situation...

WTW could use a boost...

As Bloomberg reports,

The company has suffered from falling sales and profit as consumers migrate to free, digital methods for counting calories and keeping in shape. With the Winfrey partnership, Weight Watchers is broadening its mission to helping people live a "healthier, happier life" instead of just helping them lose weight, Chief Executive Officer Jim Chambers said in the statement.

“I believe in the program so much I decided to invest in the company and partner in its evolution,†said Winfrey, who’ll also serve as an adviser to the company, helping with program development and execution.

Weight Watchers, about 51 percent of which is owned by Luxembourg-based Ar ...

Morgan Stanley Disappoints on Trading Revenue

Morgan Stanley’s bid to make its earnings less prone to market swings sputtered in the third quarter after drops in the trading and private-equity businesses led the New York firm to miss analysts’ estimates.

Big Banks to U.S. Companies: We Don't Want Your Cash

Banks are going to new lengths to fend off a surprising threat to their financial well-being: large cash deposits made by financial companies.

Deutsche Bank Shakes Up Management Amid Restructuring

Deutsche Bank AG announced sweeping changes to its senior management ranks and a broad restructuring of key units Sunday as new co-CEO John Cryan put his stamp on the giant German lender.

London Markets: FTSE 100 ends lower as commodity shares crunched

Commodity shares are hurt after China’s gross domestic product highlights the growth challenges facing a key market for commodity companies.

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