econintersect.com
       
  

FREE NEWSLETTER: Econintersect sends a nightly newsletter highlighting news events of the day, and providing a summary of new articles posted on the website. Econintersect will not sell or pass your email address to others per our privacy policy. You can cancel this subscription at any time by selecting the unsubscribing link in the footer of each email.



14Oct2015 Market Close: Markets Close Down, DOW Slips Triple Digits Again, U.S. Dollar Pauses Its Precipitous Slide

Written by Gary

U.S. stocks closed down with the DOW off almost one percentage point. The whole session was all about Wal-Mart's poor forecast and the Fed's Beige Book. The main thrust of the declining session was Mal-mart warning earnings per share would decline as much as 12 percent next fiscal year due to investment in technology, higher wages and lower prices. U.S. stocks were little changed after Fed's beige book, but offered few clues in a rate hike decision adding to investors worries.

Todays S&P 500 Chart

The Market in Perspective

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Wall St. falls, Wal-Mart drags down retailers

(Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell on Wednesday as Wal-Mart skidded after issuing a weak profit forecast, dragging down other big retailers, and as JPMorgan slipped after disappointing results.

Wal-Mart shares slide on forecast of earnings drop next year

(Reuters) - Wal-Mart Stores Inc said earnings per share would decline as much as 12 percent next fiscal year due to investment in technology, higher wages and lower prices, sending its shares down more than 8 percent.

Not a pretty day. The first column is what was reported this morning. The second column is what was forecast and the third is the last report.


http://www.dailyfx.com

Weak U.S. retail sales, inflation data cloud rate hike outlook

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. retail sales barely rose in September and producer prices recorded their biggest decline in eight months, raising further doubts about whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year.

BlackRock profit falls in third quarter but tops expectations

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Investors piled into BlackRock Inc bond ETFs and paid more in hedge fund fees in the third quarter, helping the world's largest asset manager beat Wall Street's earnings forecasts and offsetting a higher tax hit that cut profits 8 percent from a year earlier.

BofA's cost cuts cushion blow from weak rates, muted trading

(Reuters) - Bank of America Corp reported a profit for the third quarter, compared with a year-earlier loss, as Chief Executive Brian Moynihan's cost-cutting efforts helped the bank mitigate the impact of weak revenue in three of its four main businesses.

Could Stocks Lose 90% in the Next Two Years?

In the early 2000s, Alan Greenspan was worried about deflation. So he hired Ben Bernanke, the self-proclaimed expert on the Great Depression from Princeton. The idea was that with Bernanke as his right hand man, Greenspan could put off deflation from hitting the US. Indeed, one of Bernanke's first speeches was titled "Deflation: Making Sure It Doesn't Happen Here"

The US did briefly experience a bout of deflation from late 2007 to early 2009. To combat this, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke unleashed an unprecedented amount of Fed money. Remember, Bernanke claims to be an expert on the Great Depression, and his entire focus was to insure that the US didn't repeat the era of the '30s again.

Current Fed Chair Janet Yellen is cut of the same cloth as Bernanke. And her efforts (along with Bernanke's) aided and abetted by the most fiscally irresponsible Congress in history, have recreated an environment almost identical to that of the 1920s.

Let's take a quick walk down history lane.

In the 1920s, most of Europe was bankrupt due to after effects of WWI. Germany in particular was completely insolvent due to the war and due to the war reparations foisted upon it by the Treaty of Versailles. Remember, at this time Germany was the second largest economy in the world (the US was the largest, then Germany, then the UK).

Germany attempted to deal with the economic implosion created by WWI by increasing social spending: social spending per resident grew from 20.5 Deutsche Marks in 1913 to 65 Deutsche Marks in 1929.

Since the country was broke, incomes and taxes remained low, forcing Germany to run massive deficits. As its debt loads swelled, the county cut interest rates and began to print ...

Bonds Ain't Buying The Cyclical Bounce Off Black Monday's Lows

Submitted by Byrce Coward via Gavekal Capital blog,

Given the cyclical leadership dynamics since the 8/24 low in stocks, one would have guessed that bonds would have sold off in lockstep with stocks rising. One would have been wrong.

Since 8/24 it's been energy, tech, materials discretionary and industrial leading the way with health care, telecom and utilities bringing up the rear. That is pretty strong cyclical leadership, as the chart below shows, and the type of sector rotation that would be expected in an environment of rising growth or inflation expectations.

Pic3

As chart below shows, the S&P 500 is up about 5.5% since 8/24. Yet, the US 10-year bond is back trading at exactly the same level as it was when stocks were shunned in late August and "safety" was bid - about 2%. Bonds are if anything saying that growth and inflation expectations remain weak.

This tells us something about the rally in stocks and at the very least calls into question the sustainability of the recent rotation to the most cyclical groups.

A Third Of All Containers Shipped From Long Beach Port Are Empty

In the past several months, it has been virtually impossible to make any sense of the conflicting trends involving US and global trade. On one hand, there is global trade, which as we have covered since the spring, has been in a state of consistent decline. Some example of this:


World Trade Slumps By Most Since Financial Crisis

Something Just Snapped: Container Freight Rates From Asia To Europe Crash 23% In One Week

Global Trade In Freefall: Container Freight Rates From Asia To Europe Crash 60% In Three Weeks

South Korea Exports Crash Most Since 2009

And of course China's terrible trade data for the past 5 months, which has seen the longest stretch of import declines since the financial crisis.

In short: only an economist, either a tenured one or one employed by CNBC, is unable to see that the world is sinking into a global trade recession, with a economic one soon to follow.

Where things get more complicated, however, is when looking at the US. Here, macro data throughout the summer had suggested more or less smooth sailing in the trade space, and it was only a week ago that the facade started to crack, following the ugly advance trade report, when as we reported there was a "16% Surge In August Trade Deficit; Imports Jump As Exports Drop."

But what really co ...

Wal-Mart Warning Hits U.S. Stocks

U.S. stocks’ losses deepened Wednesday after Wal-Mart issued a gloomy earnings forecast, sending its stock tumbling. The company’s announcement came after data showed weaker-than-expected U.S. retail sales growth of 0.1% in September.

U.S. 10-Year Bond Yield Drops Below 2%

The yield on the 10-year U.S. government debt fell below the 2% mark again and settled at a five-month low on Wednesday as fresh signs of tepid consumer spending and low inflation boosted demand for haven assets.

BlackRock CEO Warns About Strong Dollar

The head of giant money manager BlackRock warned Wednesday that a deeper slump in commodity prices and an even stronger dollar pose the greatest threats to global markets.

September 2015 Beige Book: Economy Continues to Grow (But At a Slower Rate?)

The consolidated economic report from the 12 Federal Reserve Districts (Beige Book) "point to continued modest expansion in economic activity during the reporting period from mid-August through early October". The previous report said "economic activity continued expanding across most regions and sectors during the reporting period from July to mid-August". My interpretation is that the Fed is saying economic expansion marginally slowed.

The Tell: Why Wal-Mart's record plunge is bad news for the broader market

The shares of the largest retailer on the planet just tanked and that may be terrible news for stocks overall, according to research firm Asbury Research.

The Tell: Risky business: The upside (and downside) to timing the stock market

Interest in timing the stock market, rather than just investing for the long term, has picked up along with the recent rise in volatility, but that is a risky proposition as missing the market’s best days when trying to avoid the worst days could be costly.

Summary of Economic Releases this Week

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

Earnings Summary for Today

Earnings Calendar provided by Investing.com.

leading Stock Positions

Leading Stock Quotes powered by Investing.com

Current Commodity Prices


Commodities are powered by Investing.com

Current Currency Crosses

The Forex Quotes are powered by Investing.com.



To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

Click here for Historical Releases Listing










Make a Comment

Econintersect wants your comments, data and opinion on the articles posted.  As the internet is a "war zone" of trolls, hackers and spammers - Econintersect must balance its defences against ease of commenting.  We have joined with Livefyre to manage our comment streams.

To comment, using Livefyre just click the "Sign In" button at the top-left corner of the comment box below. You can create a commenting account using your favorite social network such as Twitter, Facebook, Google+, LinkedIn or Open ID - or open a Livefyre account using your email address.



You can also comment using Facebook directly using he comment block below.





Econintersect Live Market

search_box

Print this page or create a PDF file of this page
Print Friendly and PDF


The growing use of ad blocking software is creating a shortfall in covering our fixed expenses. Please consider a donation to Econintersect to allow continuing output of quality and balanced financial and economic news and analysis.


Take a look at what is going on inside of Econintersect.com
Main Home
Analysis Blog
Big Mess in Italy
Are You Feeling the Economic Surge?
News Blog
Early Headlines: Asia Stocks Up, Oil Down, GOP Healthcare, Trump Not Reagan Redux, EU Ending?, UK Lost Decade, Putin Taking Over Mid-East, Yuan 'Flash' Crash And More
December 5, 2016 Weather and Climate Report - December Update - Zonal Prevails
Irish Births And Baptisms Visualised
What Happens In The Smartphone Afterlife
Water Intoxication: Are We Drowning In Advice To Drink More Fluids?
The Worldwide Virtual Reality Market Is Set To Be Huge
Average Gasoline Prices for Week Ending 05 December 2016 Rose Over 5 Cents
What We Read Today 05 December 2016
Why We Have Different Blood Types
November 2016 Conference Board Employment Index Improved.
November 2016 ISM and Markit Services Index Mixed
Are All Collateralized Loan Obligations Equal?
A Third Of Homes Sold For The List Price Or More In August 2016
Investing Blog
Momentum Issues A Warning
The Great Bond Crash Of 2016: 05 December Update
Opinion Blog
The Shale-War Is Over
Fake Science
Precious Metals Blog
Silver Prices Rebounded Today: Where They Are Headed
Live Markets
05Dec2016 Market Close: US Markets Close Higher, WTI Crude Settles At $51.09, US Dollar Drops Below 100 Temporally
Amazon Books & More






.... and keep up with economic news using our dynamic economic newspapers with the largest international coverage on the internet
Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government



Crowdfunding ....






























 navigate econintersect.com

Blogs

Analysis Blog
News Blog
Investing Blog
Opinion Blog
Precious Metals Blog
Markets Blog
Video of the Day
Weather

Newspapers

Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government
     

RSS Feeds / Social Media

Combined Econintersect Feed
Google+
Facebook
Twitter
Digg

Free Newsletter

Marketplace - Books & More

Economic Forecast

Content Contribution

Contact

About

  Top Economics Site

Investing.com Contributor TalkMarkets Contributor Finance Blogs Free PageRank Checker Active Search Results Google+

This Web Page by Steven Hansen ---- Copyright 2010 - 2016 Econintersect LLC - all rights reserved