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09Oct2015 Pre-Market Commentary: World Markets All In The Green, U.S. Futures Up Fractionally, WTI Crude Trading In Low 50's

Written by Gary

U.S. stock futures index's are up fractionally and world markets are green across the board, giving hope to investors the previous several months of 'corrections' is finally over and on renewed hopes the fed will keep monetary policy loose for a bit longer.

Markets are expected to open higher on lower volume and volatility.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

European markets are sharply higher today with shares in Germany leading the region. The DAX is up 1.38% while France's CAC 40 is up 1.16% and London's FTSE 100 is up 1.11%.

Oil prices are advancing into the $50s, pushing past a key level to record a gain of nearly 9% this week. Support appears to be coming from a variety of factors, including recent OPEC comments on tackling the global overhang, expectations of shrinking U.S. production and concerns about Russia's military operations in Syria. Crude futures +2.5% to $50.64/bbl, the commodity's highest level since July 22.

What Is Moving the Markets

U.S. import prices barely decline in September

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. import prices barely declined in September, with oil prices rebounding and the drag on prices from a weak global economy appearing to moderate, Labor Department data showed on Friday.

Oil extends gains, set for biggest weekly rise since 2009

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil extended gains on Friday and was set for its biggest weekly rise in over six years after U.S. Federal Reserve minutes suggested it was in no hurry to raise interest rates and an influential forecaster predicted a price rally.

Apple Pay to expand to Starbucks, Chili's, KFC

HALF MOON BAY, Calif (Reuters) - Starbucks Corp coffee shops will begin accepting Apple Inc's mobile payment system in a pilot program starting this year, Apple Vice President Jennifer Bailey said on Thursday.

Futures flat day after Fed minutes spark rally

(Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures were little changed on Friday, a day after the S&P 500 closed at a seven-week high as investors bet the Federal Reserve would keep rates at near-zero levels until at least the next year.

House slams regulators for not catching VW for years

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Volkswagen AG's U.S. chief executive blamed "individuals" for using software to cheat on diesel emissions at a House hearing on Thursday as lawmakers attacked federal environmental regulators for failing to catch the fraud for years.

Exclusive: StanChart CEO plans to cut about 1,000 top staff - memo

SINGAPORE/LONDON (Reuters) - Standard Chartered's new Chief Executive Bill Winters plans to cut up to a quarter of the bank's most senior staff to reduce costs, according to a memo sent to staff, which is likely to see about 1,000 top jobs go.

EMC-Dell talks highlight Elliott's clout across tech sector

(Reuters) - Acquisition talks between EMC Corp. and Dell Inc. are significant not just for the size of the potential transaction but also for a common element behind this and dozens of other major tech deals over the past decade: Elliott Management.

Fed awaiting evidence global chill not knocking U.S. off track

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve thought the economy was close to warranting an interest rate hike in September but policymakers wanted firmer evidence a global economic slowdown was not knocking America off course.

"It's Not A Risk-On Rally, This Is The Biggest Short Squeeze In Years" Says Bank Of America

Several days ago, we pointed out a startling fact: short interest in the NYSE had risen to match the record level seen just before the collapse of Lehman!

We said that just as likely presaging another major leg down in equities, this move may simply mean the following: "a central bank intervenes, or a massive forced buy-in event occurs, and unleashes the mother of all short squeezes, sending the S&P500 to new all time highs."

While a central bank did not directly intervene, it did so indirectly when the September payrolls was a complete disaster, slamming any possibility of a rate hike in 2015, largely confirmed by yesterday's FOMC minutes which showed that the "no hike" decision wasn't close at all, and that as we first presented, a rate hike is now mid-2016's business, if ever.

Today, we got confirmation that what the rally of the past week has been all about is precisely that: a massive short-covering squeeze, when Bank of America's Mike Hartnett looked at the latest weekly fund flow data and noted a "monster $53bn MMF inflows vs redemptions from equity ($4.3bn) & fixed income funds ($2.4bn)...rising cash levels indicate big risk rally (from intraday lows last week SPX +7.7%, EEM +13.5%, HYG +4.2%) driven primarily by short-covering rather than fresh risk-on."

Here is the asset class flow breakdown using EPFR data;


Equities: $4.3bn outflows (3 straight weeks) (alm ...

EM Currencies See Biggest Daily Surge In Years As Dovish Fed Trumps Fundamentals

Well, what goes up must come down, which also means that what goes down must come up we suppose, which is why once again, the previously hapless ringgit and rupiah are heavily bid.

The two currencies have of course been caught up in the global EM turmoil, but as we documented extensively on Wednesday, the tide has turned a bit this week.

When things are going especially poorly, sometimes all it takes is the slightest glimmer of hope to ignite a rally, and between a poor NFP report in the US (and yes, EM FX is clearly one place where bad news in the US economy is most definitely good news as it forestalls an FOMC liftoff), “better†than expected trade data in Malaysia, a deceptively low read on capital outflows from China, and dovish FOMC minutes, this week has brought several such glimmers and so, everyone has apparently begun backing up the truck on Asia EM optimism.

Here are some highlights from Bloomberg:


Indonesia’s rupiah and Malaysia’s ringgit lead Asian currencies higher as Dollar Index holds overnight losses; sovereign bonds drop in Australia, while interest-rate swaps decline in Singapore.

Rupiah heads for 8.7% gain this week versus dollar; 13,500/dollar is a competitive level for exports and to manage inflation: Bank Indonesia’s Adityaswara; says markets have responded positively to policies that have sought to add FX supply onshore and to government’s commitment to structural reform

Rupiah move due to external and domestic factors, such as Fed minutes and confidence in govt’s structural reforms, Senior Deputy Governor Mirza Adityaswara tell ...

Frontrunning: October 9



Global stocks eye biggest rally in four years on Fed relief (Reuters)

FOMC Minutes Sap Confidence in Fed's 2015 Rate Hike Resolve (BBG)

Glencore to cut annual zinc production by a third (FT)

Tea Party wave that lifted Republicans threatens to engulf them (Reuters)

Why Kevin McCarthy Came to Quit Speaker Race (WSJ)

A U.S. Recession Just Got a Little More Likely (BBG)

White House Is Weighing a Syria Retreat (BBG)

Gentlemen May Prefer Bonds, But More Traders Take Stocks (WSJ)

Senior Iranian Revolutionary Guards general killed in Syria: IRGC (Reuters)

China’s Heft Gives It Ammunition Against the Trans-Pacific Partnership Trade Deal (WSJ)

If You Thought China's Equity Bubble Was Scary, Check Out Bonds (

Debt Markets Hold Key to Dell's Bold EMC Bid

Dell is pressing ahead with partner Silver Lake on a $50 billion-plus acquisition of data-storage giant EMC, a bold but risky deal that would require massive debt financing at a time when credit markets have become less hospitable to mergers.

Rail Week Ending 03 October 2015: September Monthly Rail Movements Contract 2.0%

Week 39 of 2015 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) and monthly total rail traffic (from same month one year ago) declined according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. Intermodal traffic moderately expanded year-over-year, which accounts for approximately half of movements. but weekly railcar counts continued in contraction.

The Liquidity Mirage. Sixth In A Six-part Series.

from Liberty Street Economics

-- this post authored by Dobrislav Dobrev and Ernst Schaumburg

Market efficiency is often pointed to as a main benefit of automated and high-frequency trading (HFT) in U.S. Treasury markets. Fresh information arriving in the market place is reflected in prices almost instantaneously, ensuring that market makers can maintain tight spreads and that consistent pricing of closely related assets generally prevails. While the positive developments in market functioning due to HFT have been widely acknowledged, we argue that the (price) efficiency gain comes at the cost of making the real-time assessment of market liquidity across multiple venues more difficult.

Need to Know: No home run yet in this market rally

The S&P 500 is eyeing a sizable 3% gain for the week, zinc has suddenly soared this morning and the Cubs might even have a shot at winning it all. But there are plenty of warnings about getting too impressed by the latest action.

Women are more likely than men to go to college, but they still get paid less

For the first time ever, American women are more likely than American men to have a college degree.

Landlords will hike rents by 8% this year

The rental market is getting even tougher for tenants.

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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