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02Oct2015 Market Close: Markets Closed Higher Breaking Out Of The Downward Trend, Oil Closes Higher, Is This Enough To Break The Downward Spiral

Written by Gary

The averages closed almost 1.5% higher on relatively heavy volume with the DOW peaking at 200. The sideways channel still remains as does the China and global financial worries. Way too early to jump in with shorts or long positions.

Todays S&P 500 Chart

The Market in Perspective

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Crude futures turn higher as U.S. oil drilling-rig count drops

Oil futures turned higher after data from Baker Hughes BHI, +2.09% showed that the number of active U.S. oil-drilling rigs fell by 26 to 614 as of Friday. The total active U.S. rig count, which includes natural-gas rigs, was at 809, down 29 rigs. Compared to last year, the total rig count has fallen by 1,113, with the oil rig count down 977.

Why the jobs report isn't nearly as bad as you think

The jobs report is not as bad as you think. Not for the economy, and not even for interest rates. The details of what happened Friday morning point to the timing of a first interest rate hike by the Federal reserve coming in March — pretty much what a realistic appraisal would have predicted before the way-below-forecast news came out.

The details are familiar: The economy added 142,000 jobs in September, missing the 200,000 consensus estimate, and flat hourly wages didn't make the expected 0.2% climb. Bonds jumped, rates spiked lower, and stocks dipped by about 1%. All that is the headline.

But if you eschew riding today's news wave in favor of spotting the bigger one behind it, consider news that hit 26 minutes after the 8:30 a.m. Eastern jobs report.

Read More >>

Financial stability should be added to Fed goals, Rosengren says

Congress may want to add financial stability as an explicit goal of Federal Reserve monetary policy, a new paper co-wrote by Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren suggests.

At the moment, the Fed has two mandates: stable prices and low unemployment levels that don't stoke inflation. Even having two is controversial: Many central banks, including the European Central Bank, are concerned mainly with keeping inflation low and stable. But in a paper published Friday to coincide with a conference on financial risks and interest rate policy, Rosengren suggested that the Fed should add a third.

"There are reasons to believe that financial stability should be an explicit consideration of monetary policy makers," he wrote.

Rosengren said he found evidence that past Fed policy makers altered policy decisions based on concerns about financial turmoil.

Read More >>

The first column is what was reported this morning and created the lower market opening at the bell. The second column is what was expected and the third is the last report.

This is the 4th month in a row that initial NFPs print has missed the consensus forecast. First time since June 2012 http://t.co/9YOqzPg0EI

Crude Surges After US Oil Rig Count Collapses To May 2002 Lows

For the 6th week in a row, Baker Hughes reports a decline in US oil rig counts. With a huge 29 rig drop - the largest in over 5 months - the total oil rig count is 809, the lowest since May 2002. The reaction is a stick-save buying panic surging crude into the green on the day.

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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