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30Sep2015 Market Close: WTI Oil Very Volatile, Averages Close Up Near Session Highs, Short-Term Indicators Remain Neutral To Slightly Bearish

Written by Gary

U.S. markets closed up, but really haven't gone anywhere. Still in a down-trend within the sideways channel. Supports or resistances haven't been broken and global worries have not dissipated. U.S. equity markets closed the books on the worst quarter in four years with the DOW up 236 points, or 1.47%, the SP 500 rose 36 points, or 1.91% to 1921, while the Nasdaq Composite jumped 103 points, or 2.28 % to 4620.

Todays S&P 500 Chart

The Market in Perspective

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Chinese Domino Effect Still Threatens World Markets

Emerging markets and others continue to feel reverberations from China stocks' epic third-quarter tumble.

SEC Commissioner calls for shining light on 'dark pools'

(Reuters) - More transparency is needed in the U.S. stock market to help restore investor confidence and bring greater clarity as to how the market functions, a top member of the Securities and Exchange Commission said on Wednesday.

Retail Investors Have Never Been More Bullish Based On Record VIX ETF Selling

Back in late 2012, when the former chief of the NY Fed's markets group, aka the head of the PPT, Brian Sack was replaced with the current head of the NY Fed's trading desk, Simon Potter, we observed something curious: there was a dramatic, and record, surge in non-commercial bearish VIX bets the moment Potter took over, which courtesy of the reflexivity relationship between the VIX and the underlying market (since exposed everywhere, read: "Conspiracy "Fact" - VIX Manipulation Runs The Entire Market"), helped push stocks higher.

Ever since then, the infamous VIX slam in the last hour of trading, or during other opportune intervals in the trading day, has served as a valuable and efficient means to halt any selloff momentum and to reallign the market with its centrally-planning mandated path: higher.

In fact, it has gotten so that trading of VIX (and its close cousin, the USDJPY carry trade) has replaced trading the S&P courtesy of the far greater embedded leverage available to those two asset classes.

Fast forward to the recent surge in market volatility, when courtesy of JPM we find something curious: it is no longer the Fed, nor its capital markets proxy, Citadel, nor even the banks or hedge funds that are the primary sellers of volatility. It is retail investors themselves!

Sure, institutionals did rush to sell vol, mostly in the form of surge in the VIX ...

Volkswagen braces for hit to business from emissions scandal

BERLIN (Reuters) - Volkswagen has imposed a hiring freeze at its financing business and cut a shift at a German engine factory as it braces for a hit to business from cheating in diesel emissions tests.

U.S. business groups oppose exceptions in Pacific trade pact

ATLANTA (Reuters) - U.S. business groups have voiced their opposition to blocking specific products, like tobacco, from rules letting foreign companies sue governments over damage to investments as Pacific trade ministers gather to finalize an ambitious trade deal.

"Economics" Explained

There's your problem, right there...

h/t @NinjaEconomics

Source: SMBC-Comics.com

U.S. export bank's loss jeopardizes Boeing orders, airline says

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - South African airline Comair Ltd has told Boeing Co that the loss of U.S. Export-Import Bank financing could jeopardize a $1.1 billion order it had placed for Boeing jetliners, leading the carrier to turn to Europe's Airbus .

Fed's Yellen does not comment on policy in brief remarks to bank group

St. Louis (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen did not comment on the U.S. economy or monetary policy in brief welcoming remarks to a community banking symposium on Wednesday.

Twitter likely to name Dorsey permanent CEO: Re/code

(Reuters) - Twitter Inc co-founder Jack Dorsey, who has been acting chief executive of the company for the past three months, is expected to be named permanent CEO as early as Thursday, technology news website Re/code reported, citing sources.

Wall Street higher but set for worst quarter in four years

(Reuters) - U.S. stocks rose on Wednesday as investors picked up beaten-down stocks, but all three major indexes were on track for their worst quarter since 2011.

Want To Hear A Joke?

Overheard (allegedly) at The UN...

Source: Investors.com

Is This Why Valeant's Default Risk Is Blowing Out Today

This Monday, in the aftermath of the Turing Pharma's Martin Shkreli "price gouging" scandal, Citron Research came out with a report in which, in order to justify its "Short Valeant" thesis, it released a table which showed what it believed was the true specialty pharma culprit when it comes to rising drug prices: Valeant Pharmaceuticals.

To be sure, there was nothing scientific about the above unaudited table, which was surely meant to validate Citron's underlying thesis, which incidentally is the same as that of Hillary Clinton and many others, namely that specialty pharma companies are eager to boost prices in an environment where various social safety nets and insurance regimes make such price increases not only tolerable, but virtually invisible at least until someone like Shkreli comes along and spoils the party for everyone.

So today, a more "credible" analysis was released by Deutsche Bank, one which has essentially done precisely what Citron did in tracking the change of drug prices, not only for Valeant but the entire specialty pharma industry.

As a reminder, the main reason why the biotech space has gotten crushed in recent days is due to concerns the US government may impose price caps in the coming months.

This is what Deutsche Bank had to say:

We compiled hist ...

October 2015 Economic Forecast: Still Shows Weak Growth

Written by Steven Hansen

Econintersect's Economic Index was statistically unchanged - and remains in the low range of index values seen since the end of the Great Recession. The tracked sectors of the economy generally showed growth. Our economic index remains in a long term decline since late 2014.

Traders Seek Ways to Gain From ETF Woes

Wall Street is concocting ways to capitalize on potential weak spots in exchange-traded funds, which showed signs of vulnerability during the recent market turmoil.

For The First Time During This Business Cycle, The US Hasn't Added A Single Manufacturing Job This Year

While the headline ADP print earlier today was modestly better than expected, at +200K, one of its components posted a surprising tumble: with 14,600 manufacturing jobs lost in August, this was the worst month for the US manufacturing sector since January 2010.

Where this data becomes more disturbing, and where it can be seen in full context, is when clustering the monthlies into full year buckets. It is here that the full impact of what is now clearly at least a manufacturing, if not yet service, recession can be witnessed.

As the chart below shows, according to ADP, for the first time this decade, the US hasn't created a single manufacturing job for the entire year. In fact, it has lost some 6,600 jobs.

But don't worry: we hear "economic recoveries" driven by hiring of minimum wage retailers, low-wage teachers, and of course, waiters and bartenders, are all the rage in this business cycle.

Source: ADP

Carl Icahn says would 'keep cash' given market risks: CNBC

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Billionaire activist investor Carl Icahn said on Wednesday he would recommend investors hold cash given market risks and that he was "seriously considering" buying "a lot more" shares of Apple Inc.

Japanese Pension Funds Find New Ways To Lose Money, Will Blow Retirement Funds On Junk Bonds

Following yesterday's collapse in the Nikkei, when a 4% drop pushed it red for the year below 17,000, down 20% from a high of 21,000 hit just over a month ago, we had just one question for Japan's pension fund "fudiciaries" who have been "greatly rotating" out of bonds for the past few years as the primary sources for BOJ debt monetization, dumping trillions in fixed income yen, and promptly buying up equities: equities which have gone nowhere in 2015, and which have posted massive losses in the third quarter. The question was:

What are Japan's pension fund losses after the Nikkei wipeout from 21k to 17K?

â€" zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 29, 2015

Less than 24 hours we got the answer, when moments ago Nikkei reported thatQ3 losses at (at least one) pension funds were just under JPY 10 trillion in the third quarter.


JAPAN PENSION FUND JULY-SEPT. LOSS LIKELY 9.4T YEN: NIKKEI

With Japan's economy already sliding into its 5th recession of the past decade, once pensioners open their retirement statements in a few weeks and find a 15% plunge in their purchasing power, Japan can skip recession and proceed straight to a consumer-driven recession.

But wait, there's more: because if pensioners are angry now, wait until they learn that they have lost everything, after buying all those junk bonds that Carl Icahn is now actively selling with both hands and feet, because...


JAPAN PENSION FUND TO INVEST IN JUNK BONDS, NIKKEI SAYS

And just like that, with or without Krugman's active economic advice, Japan's fate is sealed because much to Japan's dismay, "junk" bonds are called that for a reason.

The good news for US shale companies: they just got a 6-9 month reprieve thanks to millions of J ...

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