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21Sep2015 Pre-Market Commentary: Volatility Is Expected To Be The Norm For Today, Oil Up, U.S. Dollar Up, Traders Braced Foe An Exciting Session

Written by Gary

U.S. stock futures indexes are displaying active volatility that should carry over into the session opening. China closed in the green and the midday EU markets are solidly above the unchanged line. WTI oil has climbed into the $46 range and the U.S. dollar is also climbing making analysts wonder which is going to break down first.

By all accounts the markets will open higher and may dive to negative numbers starting a volatile session of exaggerated movements.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

European markets are broadly higher today with shares in France leading the region. The CAC 40 is up 1.47% while London's FTSE 100 is up 0.76% and Germany's DAX is up 0.26%.

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Volkswagen shares plunge on U.S. emissions scandal

BERLIN (Reuters) - Volkswagen shares tumbled more than 20 percent on Monday, their biggest ever one-day fall, as the German carmaker was plunged into turmoil by accusations from U.S. authorities that it falsified emissions data.

Deutsche Wohnen, LEG to nip at Vonovia's heels after merger

FRANKFURT (Reuters) - German real estate groups Deutsche Wohnen and LEG Immobilien aim to keep growing via acquisitions following their planned merger, racing to catch up with larger peer Vonovia.

Oil prices up 2 percent after U.S. drilling falls

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil rose by more than 2 percent on Monday after data showed U.S. drilling slowed and a report said $1.5 trillion worth of planned production was uneconomic at current prices.

Are Bank Holding Companies Mimicking The Feds Stress Test Results?

from Liberty Street Economics

-- this post authored by Angela Deng, Beverly Hirtle, and Anna Kovner

In March, the Federal Reserve and thirty-one large bank holding companies (BHCs) disclosed their annual Dodd-Frank Act stress test (DFAST) results. This is the third year in which both the BHCs and the Fed have published their projections. In a previous post, we looked at whether the Fed's and the BHCs' stress test results are converging in the aggregate and found mixed results.

Shares, dollar perk up after global growth concerns

LONDON (Reuters) - Wall Street was expected to start the week higher on Monday with a rebound in European stocks, the dollar and oil markets pointing to a tentative recovery in confidence following another difficult day in Asia.

Asia's Two-Tiered Oil Sector

Unlike Australia's privately run oil producers, China's state giants stay bloated in an era of cheap oil.

Futures higher after closing in the red last week

(Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures were slightly higher on Monday after Wall Street closed lower last week as the Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged stoked fears of slowing global economic growth.

Fed Must Now Face The Real Threat: DEFLATION

from the Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks

-- this post authored by Doug Behnfield

[Forward from Rick: With the Fed's decision not to raise rates, investors are more likely to return their focus to the deflationary forces that have been pushing government bond prices higher, and yields lower, for decades. Look for this trend to continue and possibly even pick up steam in the months ahead, says our good friend Doug Behnfield in the guest commentary below. A Colorado-based financial adviser, Doug's unconventional and often provocative ideas have been featured here many times in the past. He believes, as we do, that odds of a rate hike are remote and that it might have to await the next recovery cycle, which could feature inflation brought on by protectionism. (What would happen if rates go negative, as now seems quite possible? Click here for a scary rumination on the subject at ZeroHedge.)]

Frontrunning: September 21



Fed is out so...BOJ brainstorms stimulus overhaul as options dwindle (Reuters)

And... Yellen Pause Ups Pressure on Draghi as Global Pessimism Mounts (BBG)

But... Eurozone Nears Limits of What Monetary Policy Can Do (WSJ)

Global shares struggle on global growth concerns (Reuters)

VW's Emissions Cheating Found by Curious Clean-Air Group (BBG)

David Cameron allegedly fucked a dead pig's head (Mirror)

U.S. to Boost Refugee Intake by 30,000 Over Two Years (WSJ)

Apple's iOS App Store suffers first major attack (Reuters)

Tsipras returns to power to fight for Greek debt relief (Reuters)

Tsipras's Syriza Set to Return to Power After Resounding Greek Election Vict ...

US Equity Futures Hit Overnight Highs On Renewed Hope Of More BOJ QE

After sliding early in Sunday pre-market trade, overnight US equity futures managed to rebound on the now traditional low-volume levitation from a low of 1938 to just over 1950 at last check, ignoring the biggest single-name blowup story this morning which is the 23% collapse in Volkswagen shares in the aftermath of the company's emissions lying scandal which has cost the company €15 billion in market cap and has dragged Germany's Dax lower...

... and instead have piggybacked on what we said was the last Hail Mary for the market: the hope of more QE from either the ECB or the BOJ. Tonight, it was the latter and while Japan's market are closed until Thursday for public holidays, its currency which is the world's preferred carry trade and the primary driver alongside VIX manipulation of the S&P500, has jumped from a low of just over 119 on Friday morning to a high of 120.4, pushing the entire US stock market with it.

As Reuters reported over the weekend, sources suggest that the BoJ is again contemplating an overhaul of its QQE program with an increase in its JPY 80 trillion monetary base as its main option to achieve its inflation goal, adding that it has not ruled out moving away from its money printing program in the long term due to a lack of success in reaching the price goal. "QQE is not a programme intended to last another five, 10 years," said a former BOJ policymaker with knowledge of current monetary ...

Russians Buy 1 Million Ounces of Gold Bars In August

Russia's gold reserves rose to 42.4 million troy ounces as of September 1 compared with 41.4 million troy ounces a month earlier, the Russian central bank announced on Friday.

The monthly accumulation of 1 million ounces in just one month was one of the more sizeable monthly purchases by Russia and equates to 31.1 metric tonnes in August alone.

The value of the bank's holdings rose to $47.68 billion from $44.96 billion a month earlier, Russia said in a statement on its website.

The amount bought was more than the 30.5 metric tons that Russia purchased in March, then the highest amount in six months.

Russia is now the seventh biggest holder of gold reserves after the U.S, Germany, the IMF, Italy and France and the rising gold power China. Russia has more than tripled its reserves since 2005 and holds the most gold bars since at least 1993, International Monetary Fund data shows.

Nations globally have been increasing their gold holdings in recent years, a reversal from two decades of selling. China, Kazakhstan, Ukraine and Belarus are among other nations that have been accumulating gold.

Gold remains a large part of many central banks' reserves, decades after they stopped using it to back paper and the electronic currency of today.

Russia has been steadily buying bullion since 2007 and the advent of the global financial crisis. Russia was accumulating gold even prior to tensions with the West and international sanctions over the Ukrainian conflict.

Gold has protected the Russian reserves and ac ...

Lennar profit and revenue beat as home sales, prices rise

(Reuters) - Lennar Corp, the No.2 U.S. homebuilder by volume, reported better-than-expected quarterly profit and revenue as it sold more homes at higher prices.

GE's Immelt says more U.S. jobs likely to move overseas over Exim Bank policy

NEW DELHI (Reuters) - General Electric Co Chairman Jeff Immelt said more jobs are likely to move overseas from the U.S. unless its government changes policy on its Export-Import Bank.

Volkswagen shares plunge the most in six years on U.S. emission issue

BERLIN (Reuters) - Shares in Volkswagen plunged the most in almost six years in early Monday trading after U.S. authorities accused the German carmaker of falsifying emissions data, which means it could face penalties of up to $18 billion.

Fed Reins In the Dollar

The Federal Reserve's decision to hold short-term interest rates steady in the face of deteriorating global economic growth is expected to limit gains this year in the U.S. dollar. That is good news for exporters and emerging-market countries.

Zurich ditches RSA takeover after losses in general insurance

ZURICH (Reuters) - Zurich Insurance Group AG abandoned its proposed 5.6 billion pound ($8.7 billion) bid for British insurer RSA Insurance Group PLC on Monday after forecasting a $200 million loss in its general insurance business due to explosions at the Chinese port of Tianjin.

StanChart was still reviewing Iran-related clients in 2013: FT

LONDON (Reuters) - Standard Chartered was still reviewing if some of its clients were Iranian or Iran-connected entities in 2013, the Financial Times said, saying it had identified transactions that could put the bank at risk of more U.S. penalties.

Early Headlines: Syriza Wins, Asian And European Stocks Weak, Savage Capitalism, Much Ado About Fed, China Pushes For WTO And IMF Status And More

Written by John Lounsbury

Early Bird Headlines 21 September 2015

Econintersect: Here are some of the headlines we found to help you start your day. For more headlines see our afternoon feature for GEI members, What We Read Today, which has many more headlines and a number of article discussions to keep you abreast of what we have found interesting.

early-bird-301-180

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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