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18Sep2015 Pre-Market Commentary: Markets Set To Open Lower After Fed's Decision Not To Raise Rates, WTI Oil Falling Sharply, U.S. Dollar Down, But Steady

Written by Gary

U.S. stock futures index's are down 1.25% at this writing after Fed Chair Janet Yellen decided to do nothing and 'evaluate' the Global 'issues' that might impact the U.S. before acting on interest rates.

U.S. Markets are set to open lower, but may climb into the green, or close to it, before noon.

Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

European markets are sharply lower today with shares in Germany off the most. The DAX is down 3.00% while France's CAC 40 is off 2.40% and London's FTSE 100 is lower by 1.49%.

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Stocks Fall After Fed Holds Rates

Global stock markets fell Friday after the U.S. Federal Reserve's decision not to raise short-term interest rates sparked fresh concerns over the state of the global economy.

Futures Drop More After Gartman Turns "Net Long Of Equities"

One week after Gartman was convinced there is 200 points of downside to the S&P and predicted a target of 1725-1750, only to be promptly stopped out 24 hours later, he has as of this morning turned "net long of equities."

There was massive confusion in the US equity market yesterday following the Fed "Nativist nondecision" on the Fed funds rate, for the market initially soared; then plunged; then soared again and the plunged, ending the day lower, but ending the day well below the day's highs. For the year-to-date, as a result, our International Index has lost 338 "points" or 3.4% while the S&P is down 70 "points" or 3.4% also.

We are, here at TGL in our retirement fund, long of Apple and long of a "tanker's" shares, whilst we are "short" of derivatives in sufficient quantity to be modestly net long of equities ...

As of this moment futures are now down 21 points.

UK Stocks Flash-Crash As BP, Banks Plunge

Chatter of a fat-finger trade, then exaggerated by the algos, has smashed UK's FTSE 100 lower instantly this morning, dragging major firms with it...



As with all these plunges, the machines BTFD but the rebound is weak.

As Bloomberg noted:


More desk chatter seems to confirm a massive seller dumped a basket of FTSE 100 stocks at 0744ET

Charts: Bloomberg

Frontrunning: September 18

The bearish dovish Fed: Shares Fall After Federal Reserve Keeps Rates on Hold (WSJ)

Developed, emerging markets diverge as Fed keeps rates steady (Reuters)

Yellen May Emulate Taper Template and Raise Rates in December (BBG)

Russia Raises Prospect of Sending Troops Into Combat in Syria (BBG)

Rigged markets 1: U.S. Said to Investigate Chicago Trader as Spoof Probes Broaden (BBG)

Rigged markets 2: Primary Dealers Rigged Treasury Auctions, Investor Lawsuit Says (BBG)

Rigged markets 3: The Man Who Took KKR's Stock for a Ride (WSJ)

Croatia closes border crossings, but migrants keep coming (Reuters)

China Stocks Cap Biggest Weekly Loss This Month as Volumes Slump (

Futures point to weaker opening post-Fed

(Reuters) - The uncertainty continues. U.S. stock index futures fell on Friday, a day after the Federal Reserve held off on raising interest rates.

Oil dips after U.S. warns on health of global economy

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices edged lower on Friday after the U.S. central bank warned on the health of the global economy and bearish signs persisted that the world's biggest crude producers would keep pumping at high levels to maintain market share.

Apple customers report devices crashing on iOS 9 update

SAN FRANCISCO/SYDNEY (Reuters) - A significant number of Apple Inc customers are reporting their mobile devices have crashed after attempting to upload the new iOS 9 operating system, the latest in a line of launch glitches for the tech giant.

Global Stocks Slide, Futures Tumble On Confusion Unleashed By "Uber-Dovish" Fed

What was one "one and done", just became "none and done" as the Fed will no longer hike in 2015 and will certainly think twice before hiking ahead of the presidential election in 2016. By then the inventory liquidation-driven recession will be upon the US and the Fed will be looking at either NIRP or QE4. Worse, the Fed just admitted it is as, if not more concerned, with the market than with the economy. Worst, suddenly the market no longer wants a... dovish Fed?

* * *

While consensus was split if the Fed was going to hike or keep rates the same (although with Goldman pushing for the latter and even urging further easing, it is no surprise for the first time ever a FOMC member suggested negative rate), everyone was expecting some hawkish component to yesterday's FOMC announcement: either the hike itself, or a hawkish "hold" in which the Fed would promise a hike is imminent any moment. After all, 7 years later, the market needed at least a little confirmation that the economy is finally starting to pick up through the lens of the Fed. Nobody expected that dovish mess that was unleashed at 2pm yesterday, in which the Fed explicitly made it clear that it now has a third mandate: responding to Chinese and global events, and that a rate hike is virtually impossible any time emerging markets are "tantruming" due to the same dollar strength that accompanies any pre-hiking intentions, thus proving what we have said all along: the Fed is trapped in a catch 22.

This is how JPM's chief economist Michael Feroli summarized the confusion unleashed by the Fed:

"While that outcome wasn't too much of a surprise - we were leaning toward a hike but thought it was basically a coin flip - what was a surprise was the dovish statement and dovish ton ...

Mexico's Disorganized Crime


-- this post authored by Tristan Reed

With the escape of infamous Sinaloa cartel boss Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman Loera in July, some speculated that his Sinaloa-based group, the Sinaloa Federation, would rise to power once again. But two months later, fissures and infighting among drug cartels continue unabated, proving that even Guzman is powerless to reverse the inevitable Balkanization of Mexico's drug trade. Ultimately, the forces that drive the evolution of organized crime are simply more powerful than any single crime boss. In fact, since Stratfor's last update in April, there has been little change in the key trends shaping Mexico's organized crime landscape.

Fed's Balance Sheet 16 September 2015 Grows

Total Fed Balance Sheet:

Fed's Balance Sheet week ending balance sheet was $4,449 trillion..

Saab CEO says trainer bid could spur co-operation with Boeing

LONDON (Reuters) - Sweden's Saab is confident of selling training jets to the U.S. Air Force, but believes its bidding partnership with Boeing could lead to further co-operation whoever wins the $11 billion contest, its chief executive said.

Developed, emerging markets diverge as Fed keeps rates steady

LONDON (Reuters) - European stocks fell on Friday and bonds rose, pushing yields sharply lower, after the U.S. Federal Reserve cited weakening global growth and the recent upsurge in financial market volatility as its reasons for not raising interest rates.

Early Headlines: Germany Struggles Processing Refugees, Top Fifa Suspension, Ukraine Corruption, Fed Repeats 1927 Mistake, Europe In Disarray And More

Written by John Lounsbury

Early Bird Headlines 18 September 2015

Econintersect: Here are some of the headlines we found to help you start your day. For more headlines see our afternoon feature for GEI members, What We Read Today, which has many more headlines and a number of article discussions to keep you abreast of what we have found interesting.


Puerto Rico businesses fret tax hikes will erode profits

SAN JUAN/NEW YORK (Reuters) - Business is tough enough already for Carlos Jimenez without having to face higher taxes. Fast Lane, his three-location car-wash chain in Puerto Rico, has laid off about half the 106 employees it had in 2007.

From Kabul With Fading Hopes: Afghanistans War Continues

from The Conversation, The Conversation

-- this post authored by Haroro J. Ingram, Australian National University

It is fighting season in Afghanistan and August was particularly bloody on Kabul's streets. In the weeks before I arrived in the city, attacks had left dozens dead, hundreds more injured and faith in the government's ability to secure the capital all but shattered.

China firms sign deal for high-speed Las Vegas-Los Angeles rail link ahead of Xi's U.S. visit

BEIJING (Reuters) - A unit of China's CRRC Corp, the world's biggest train maker by revenue, on Thursday joined a group of its domestic peers in agreeing a deal to help build a high-speed link from Las Vegas to Los Angeles, underlining the rail giant's lofty overseas ambitions.

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