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15Sep2015 Market Update: DOW Up Triple Digits In Unexpected Move Higher, WTI Oil Sliding Again, Expect More Volatility

Written by Gary

U.S. Stocks rose off the morning lows because of persistent rumors that the Fed is NOT going to raise interest rates. Oil also rose on the same speculation and is currently sliding back down after failing at the 45 resistance.

The Federal Reserve's decision on raising interest rates is difficult because after six years into the recovery, manufacturers are still struggling to raise prices.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

North and South American markets are broadly higher today with shares in U.S. leading the region. The S&P 500 is up 1.03% while Mexico's IPC is up 0.61% and Brazil's Bovespa is up 0.57%.

Traders Corner - Health of the Market

Index Description Current Value
Investors.com Members Sentiment: % Bullish (the balance is Bearish) 62%
CNN's Fear & Greed Index Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear 15%
Investors Intelligence sets the breath Above 50 bullish 30.3%
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold. -1.67
StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($NYA200R) $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Dropping below 40%-35% signals serious continuing weakness and falling averages. 21.70%
StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. 36.96%
StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction. 37.00%
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) ten year note index value 22.55
StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) As long as the consumer discretionary holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy 75.63
StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors 10,062

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Why Morning Is the Worst Time to Trade Stocks

Rising stock-market volatility is proving especially costly for retail investors who typically buy and sell stocks soon after the market open often the most perilous time of the trading day.

US stocks move higher a day ahead of crucial Fed meeting; odds of rate rise seen as slipping

NEW YORK (AP) — U.S. stocks rose on Tuesday, a day ahead of the start of a crucial Federal Reserve policy meeting. Fed policymakers will convene a two-day meeting on Wednesday and could decide to raise interest rates for the first time in close to a decade.

Energy stocks rose more than the rest of the market as the price of crude oil moved higher. KEEPING SCORE: The Dow Jones industrial average gained 157 points, or 1 percent, to 16,528 as of 12:13 p.m. Eastern time Tuesday. The Standard & Poor's 500 index climbed 16 points, or 0.8 percent, to 1,969. The Nasdaq composite rose 36 points, or 0.8 percent, to 4,842.

VOLATILE MARKETS: The stock market has recovered some of the ground that it lost in August and early September, but is still down from its peak of the year as traders and investors fret about the possible impact of slower growth in China and other emerging markets. The S&P 500 is down 7.5 percent from its record close set in May.

Russian watchdog says finds food-safety violations at Burger King restaurants

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russian consumer protection watchdog Rospotrebnadzor said on Tuesday it had found food-safety violations at two Burger King restaurants in Moscow.

UAW, FCA still negotiating under 'hour-by-hour' contract extension

DETROIT (Reuters) - Negotiators for the United Auto Workers and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles were still bargaining at midday on Tuesday over wages and benefits for about 40,000 U.S. workers as the union delayed calling for strikes at the company's most profitable operations.

Steen Jakobsen Sums Up In 1 Word What We've Learned In The 7 Years Since Lehman

"Nothing... We've learned nothing since the collapse of Lehman Brothers seven years ago today," according to Saxo's Steen Jakobsen.

He argues the emergency measures brought in in 2008 have been in place for far too long and, like a broken arm that's kept for too long in plaster, economic muscle has withered.

Jakobsen predicts lean times ahead, but that's not necessarily a bad thing as central bank funding has acted like a sugar diet on the global economy. Reforms to improve productivity are desperately needed and he considers whether an imminent interest rate rise in the States could be catalyst for a new normalisation.

In bringing ad-blocking to mobiles, Apple gives itself a boost

PARIS (Reuters) - Apple Inc's move to make ad-blocking software available on the iPhone is a double-barrelled effort to boost the health of the so-called app economy, while undermining arch rival Google Inc , which dominates the $120 billion online advertising market.

2-Year Treasury Yield Highest Since April 2011

2 Year Treasury yields have jumped 4.5bps today, breaking to 77.4bps - the highest since April 2011 as it appears (despite the 30% odds of a rate hike priced into the ED curve) Fed jawboning is creating front-end selling (in the face of weak data). Notably this is the same level that 2Y rates traded at in Dec 2008 after the initial tumble post-Lehman.

Charts: Bloomberg

But...

Forget 2s, 12 Month T-Bill going a bit vertical pic.twitter.com/w9GtBY14So

— Not Jim Cramer (@Not_Jim_Cramer) September 15, 2015

Target challenges Amazon, enters grocery delivery with Instacart

CHICAGO (Reuters) - Target Corp said on Tuesday it has partnered with Instacart Inc to deliver groceries for as little as $3.99 per order, as it overhauls its food business and competes with Amazon.com Inc's grocery delivery service.

Wall St. higher in cautious trading ahead of Fed

(Reuters) - U.S. stocks rose in cautious trading on Tuesday after data showed retail sales continued to climb in August, strengthening the case for an interest rate increase when the Federal Reserve meets this week.

GE to move turbine jobs to Europe, China due to EXIM bank closure

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - General Electric Co said on Tuesday it will move 500 U.S. power turbine manufacturing jobs to Europe and China because it can no longer access U.S. Export-Import Bank financing after Congress allowed the agency's charter to lapse in June.

Gartman Does It Again: 30Y Tops 3.00%, Stocks Surge After "Bad News"

Oops, he did it again... Gartman: Sell Stocks, Buy Bonds

And this morning's terrible array of data was just what the doctor ordered to send stocks higher and bonds lower (because you sell stocks on recession-inspiring data because there is no safety bid)...

With USDJPY at 120.00 and Europe closing - we wonder how long this algo stop-run to yesterday's highs in stocks will last?

Charts: Bloomberg

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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