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11Sep2015 Market Update: Markets Melting Upwards, Solidly In The Green, But For How Long Investors Ask As Oil Creeps Up And The U.S. Dollar Slips

Written by Gary

U.S. Markets recovered nicely from the morning negative slump up to a respectable plus 0.3% only to fall off the noontime high and start a trend sideways that has just started to melt upwards. WTI oil was trading near its support and is now climbing with the markets along with the U.S. dollar aggressively testing its support.

There is little news that can support this bullish rise. Volume is falling and many investors are looking to sell or at least reduce their exposure.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

North and South American markets are mixed. The IPC is higher by 0.01%, while Brazil's Bovespa is off 0.39%. Shares in U.S. are unchanged with the S&P 500 at 1,952.12.

Goldman warns that crude could collapse to $20 a barrel and explained, "The oil market is even more oversupplied than we had expected and we now forecast this surplus to persist in 2016," although it also said that $20 isn't its base case scenario. Isn't this the same company that predicted in the not so distant past that oil would hit $150-$200 a barrel? My 'guess' is that we will see another attempt at the recent low of the mid 37's.

The University of Michigan Confidence came in at 85.7 actual vs 91.1 estimate, 91.9 prior.

  • Curtin: Consumers less positive on current income; Consumers still positive on buying cars, durables and see prices rising for more luxury goods.
  • Curtin: Confidence firm is global turmoil not linked to U.S.
  • Curtin: Turmoil puts focus on negative developments; Fed rate hike could add risk to outlook.

Traders Corner - Health of the Market

Index Description Current Value
Investors.com Members Sentiment: % Bullish (the balance is Bearish) 61%
CNN's Fear & Greed Index Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear 13%
Investors Intelligence sets the breath Above 50 bullish 30.1%
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold. 10.24
StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($NYA200R) $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Dropping below 40%-35% signals serious continuing weakness and falling averages. 21.59%
StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. 36.60%
StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction. 36.00%
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) ten year note index value 21.94
StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) As long as the consumer discretionary holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy 75.29
StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors 10,006

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Wall St. Up Mildlly as Oil Prices Slump Again

Energy industry companies were hurt, with shares of Transocean falling 6 percent.

04 September 2015: ECRI's WLI Growth Index Slides Marginally Deeper Into Contraction

ECRI's WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward - slid further into negative territory. This index had spent 28 weeks in negative territory then 15 weeks in positive territory - and now is in its fourth week in negative territory.

Preliminary September 2015 Michigan Consumer Sentiment Lowest Since September 2014

by Doug Short, Advisor Perspectives/dshort.com

The University of Michigan Preliminary Consumer Sentiment for September came in at 85.7, a decrease from the 91.9 Final August reading. Investing.com had forecast 91.2 for the September Preliminary. This 6.2 point decline is the largest since September 2013 and the current preliminary sentiment is at its lowest level since September of 2014

Wealth Matters: When Family Members Run Foundations, Scrutiny Never Ends

The I.R.S. and state attorneys general pay extremely close attention to the compensation of family members who run private charities.

August 2015 Producer Prices Year-over-Year Deflation Unchanged

Written by Steven Hansen

The Producer Price Index year-over-year deflation continued - and deflation was unchanged relative to last month. The intermediate processing continues to show a large deflation in the supply chain.

Fed's Balance Sheet 09 September 2015 Again Essentially Unchanged

Total Fed Balance Sheet:

Fed's Balance Sheet week ending balance sheet was $4,439 trillion..

The Age Of Drones Has Arrived Quicker Than The Laws That Govern Them

from The Conversation, The Conversation

-- this post authored by Gbenga Oduntan, University of Kent

Just because you may not have seen a drone overhead doesn't mean it hasn't seen you. And, as was demonstrated by the killing of two British jihadis in Syria recently, these unmanned aerial vehicles are increasingly deployed by the West as frontline weapons of war.

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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