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08Sep2015 Pre-Market Commentary: U.S. Stock Futures Index Up 2%, Crude Climbing Higher, Volatility Expected

Written by Gary

What a day makes, China closed up almost 3% last night with fairy tale promises from the PBOC. Current thinking from analysts is that today's exuberance will be short lived and caution should be exercised.

U.S. futures are up almost 2% and markets are expected to open higher.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

European markets are mixed today. The DAX is up 2.32% while the FTSE 100 gains 1.61%. The CAC 40 is off 0.54%.

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Brent oil rises on European, Chinese data; oversupply weighs

LONDON (Reuters) - Brent oil rose on Tuesday as strong European economic data and a year-on-year increase in Chinese crude imports outweighed concerns about Asia's economic growth and global oil oversupply.

Tax exemption may be key to move of Keurig's coffee buying to Switzerland

NEW YORK (Reuters) - When Keurig Green Mountain Inc said last December it was shifting its coffee buying operation to Lausanne in Switzerland from its headquarters in Waterbury, Vermont, it said the move would establish the company as a "global beverage player."

Eurozone Economic Growth Revised Higher

The eurozone economy grew more rapidly than previously estimated in the three months to June, as a pickup in exports offset a slowdown in household consumption and a decline in investment spending.

AutoNation says it won't sell cars that need safety repairs

(Reuters) - AutoNation Inc , the largest U.S. auto retailer, said on Tuesday it will not sell any new or used vehicle that has an unrepaired safety defect, in a move that could boost costs but also deflect pressure from consumers, lawmakers and regulators.

Global Stocks Push Higher

Global stocks pushed higher, helped by a late rally in Chinese equities.

Why Gold Will Rise If Stocks Collapse

from the Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks

After a long hiatus, we heard recently from an old friend, a prominent Seattle business lawyer whose thoughts have been featured here many times before. In his latest dispatch, he explains why a major stock-market selloff is imminent. Although many gold investors fear that this would trigger a liquidation of bullion-based assets, our friend believes otherwise.

Futures rise on hopes of additional Chinese stimulus

(Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures rose on Tuesday after weak economic data out of China bolstered hopes of more stimulus measures from the Chinese government.

Frontrunning: September 8



Sure, why not: China Rebounds as Trade Data Disappoints (BBG)

Oh, that's why: China's Stock-Rescue Tab Surges to $236 Billion, Goldman Says (BBG)

Can't make this up: German finmin says must avoid reliance on debt, cenbank stimulus (Reuters)

Stocks rise after contrasting China, Germany trade data (Reuters)

Euro zone second-quarter GDP revised up as Italy grows faster (Reuters)

Brent oil rises on European, Chinese data; oversupply weighs (Reuters)

Corporate Prosecution Deals Headed for a Legal Test (WSJ)

Fallon Says U.K. Will Carry Out More Syria Strikes If Necessary (BBG)

UK says more deadly drone strikes possible, despite criticism (Reuters)

Liar Loans Redux: They're Back and Sneaking Into AAA Rated Bonds (

Stocks rise after contrasting China, Germany trade data

LONDON (Reuters) - Shares rose in Europe and Asia on Tuesday while the dollar lost ground against the euro after trade data from China and Germany highlighted the divergent outlooks of the two heavyweight economies.

Futures Soar After Dramatic Chinese Last Hour Intervention Scrambles To Mask Latest Terrible Trade Data

The last time we looked at Chinese stocks, just a few hours ago, they were down 2%, and on pace to close back under 3000, following the latest collapse in official Chinese trade data (so one can imagine what the real data was), where in August exports dropped 5.5% (vs -8.3% in July) while imports tumbled -13.8% in dollar terms (worse than the -8.1% prior). As the Reuters chart below shows, this was the 10th month in a row of declines and the worst stretch since the 2008 crisis, confirming China will need far more currency devaluation to stabilize the trade pain.

The terrible Chinese trade data was enough to initially push not only Chinese, but Asian stocks broadly lower, and served to slam the USDJPY back under 119 on the heels of another ugly Japan GDP report which rose only due to another surge in inventory accumulation even as capital spending dropped, which in turn pushed the Nikkei to a -2.4% close (despite a flash smash 400 points higher at the open), wiping out all Japanese stock gains for 2015.

That was quick -> just like that, Nikkei 225 closes -433 points (-2.4%); erasing all of its gains in 2015. #Markets pic.twitter.com/Gwe5jq2trx

â€" David Ingles (@DavidInglesTV)

German finance minister says central banks powerless in face of too much debt

BERLIN (Reuters) - German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said on Tuesday that central bank policy could do little to help the economy when people and states take on too much debt.

Britain's Status As A Trading Nation Ties It To Europe

from STRATFOR

-- this post authored by Mark Fleming-Williams

At some point in the next two years, British voters will decide whether to remain a part of the European Union. This will be the first time Britons have been consulted on the subject since 1975, when 67 percent voted to stay in. If it does decide to leave, the United Kingdom will become the first country to leave the European Union since it was created as the European Community in 1957. The repercussions would be felt not just in Britain, but also across the Continent and indeed across the world. To predict the eventual result of the vote, it is first important to understand the factors that have kept the United Kingdom in the union this long.

698K Native-Born Americans Lost Their Job In August: Why This Suddenly Is The Most Important Jobs Chart

After the Fed admitted over a year ago that the US unemployment rate (which in 2012 was supposed to be a rate hike "threshold" once it hit 6.5% and is now at 5.1%) has become irrelevant in a country where a record 94 million people have left the labor force, and with the Fed poised to hike rates even though US hourly wages have not only not increased for the past 7 years, but for the vast majority of the labor force continue to decline, some have asked - is there any labor-related chart that matters any more?

The answer: a resounding yes, only it is none of the conventional charts that algos and sometimes humans look at.

The one chart that matters more than ever,has little to nothing to do with the Fed's monetary policy, but everything to do with the November 2016 presidential elections in which the topic of immigration, both legal and illegal, is shaping up to be the most rancorous, contentious and divisive.

The chart is the following, showing the cumulative addition of foreign-born and native-born workers added to US payrolls according to the BLS since December 2007, i.e., since the start of the recession/Second Great Depression.

The chart is especially important because what it shows for just the month of August will be enough to provide the Trump - and every other - campaign with enough soundbites and pivot points to last it for weeks on end: namely, that ...

August 2015 Small Business Optimism Index Only Increased 0.5 Points

The National Federation of Independent Business's (NFIB) optimism index improved from 95.4 to 95.9 - and still not above the 42 year average of 98.. The market was expecting the index between 94.8 to 97.0 with consensus at 96.0.

U.S. small business confidence rises slightly in August

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. small business confidence rose modestly in August, suggesting the economy continued to grow at a steady clip halfway through the third quarter.

In China, Fresh Signs of a Steepening Industrial Downturn

Chinese exports fell 5.5 percent in August from a year earlier, and imports declined even faster, new data showed.

China's Forex Reserves Fall by Record $93.9 Billion

China's foreign-exchange reserves fell by a record $93.9 billion in August, a result of aggressive intervention in the currency market by the country's central bank to prevent the yuan from free-falling and limit money leaving Chinese shores.

China imports sink in August, shares rally but volumes dive

SHANGHAI (Reuters) - China's imports tumbled in August, raising concerns about the health of the world's second-largest economy and its contribution to global growth.

Greek banks' bad loans at around 45 percent: local paper

ATHENS (Reuters) - Greek banks' bad loans, which peaked after capital controls were imposed in late June, have dipped to around 45 percent of their loan books and are likely to fall further, daily newspaper Kathimerini said on Tuesday, citing bankers' estimates.

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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