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23Jul2015 Pre-Market Commentary: U.S. Futures Mixed And Flat, Oil And Gold Falling As Fears Of Recession And Fed Raising Rates Becomes Center Stage

Written by Gary

U.S. stock futures were mixed, but mostly fractionally higher this morning as investors considered a flood of corporate earnings reports and two day of losses. The weekly jobless numbers were in the green, plunging to lowest level in 42 years, but futures remained quiet and unmoved on the reports. The Euro fell after the report while gold, oil and copper also fell. The markets are expected to open up fractionally.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

European markets are mixed today. The FTSE 100 is up 0.09% while the CAC 40 gains 0.03%. The DAX is even.

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

U.S. Stock Futures Waver

U.S. stock futures were mixed Thursday as investors considered a flood of corporate earnings reports.

June 2015 CFNAI Super Index Improves and Nears Historical Trend Rate of Growth.

Written by Steven Hansen

The economy was growing faster last month based on the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) 3 month moving (3MA) average - but continues to grow (now insignificantly) below the historical trend rate of growth (but well above levels associated with recessions).

Australia Weighs Steps to Rein In Sydney Property

Fast-rising house prices are prompting regulators in New Zealand and Australia to try, or consider, measures to prick nascent bubbles in single cities, an unusual move for any country.

Greece faces recession warning as bailout talks set to open

ATHENS (Reuters) - Greece's most influential think tank warned on Thursday of a sharp drop back into recession in a report that came hours after parliament approved a second package of reform measures aimed at securing a new bailout from international lenders.

Exclusive: Japan eyes British help to sink German bid for Australian submarine

TOKYO/SYDNEY (Reuters) - A Japanese government team is in talks with at least two top British firms to help a Japanese consortium land one of the world's most lucrative defense contracts, sources in Tokyo said, a $50 billion project to build submarines for Australia.

GM earnings more than doubles on U.S. truck demand; shares jump

DETROIT (Reuters) - General Motors Co shares surged in premarket trading Thursday after the automaker reported adjusted net income that more than doubled in the second quarter, driven by North American truck sales and continued strength in China.

18 July 2015 Initial Unemployment Claims Rolling Average Improves

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims

The market was expecting the weekly initial unemployment claims at 275,000 to 300,000 (consensus 279,000) vs the 255,000 reported. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average moved from 282,500 (reported last week as 282,500) to 278,500. The rolling averages generally have been equal to or under 300,000 since August 2014.

U.S. jobless claims lowest since 1973

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits last week fell to its lowest level in more than 41-1/2 years, suggesting job growth remained solid despite slowing in June.

Jobless Claims Fall to Lowest Level Since 1973

The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits last week fell to its lowest level in more than 41-1/2 years, suggesting job growth remained solid despite slowing in June.

McDonald's quarterly profit falls 13 percent

(Reuters) - McDonald's Corp's second-quarter profit fell 13 percent, hurt by a decline in global same-store sales as fewer customers ate at its restaurants.

Bristol beats forecasts, raises profit view, shares jump

(Reuters) - Bristol-Myers Squibb Co on Thursday reported far better than expected quarterly results thanks largely to delayed reimbursement for two hepatitis C treatments in France and demand for other leading company medicines.

EU charges Sky, U.S. studios with limiting pay-TV access

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The European Commission charged Sky UK and six major U.S. film studios on Thursday with illegally limiting access across the European Union to movies shown on pay-TV channels.

Caterpillar Sales Plummet, Outlook Slashed, Says "Stagnant" Global Economy Shows No Signs Of Improvement

For those surprised by today's abysmal CAT Q2 results, we can only assume this is because our post from yesterday "Forget Recession: According To Caterpillar There Is A Full-Blown Global Depression" slipped through the cracks.

Here are the two visual punchlines:

This is how we summarized it: 'after an increasingly shallower series of dead CAT bounces in the past year, first thanks to Latin America, and then the US, global retail sales just dropped by 14% - marching the biggest Y/Y decline since the financial crisis."

Fast forward to today when we learn that in the second quarter sales dropped by, drumroll, 14% - the worst tumble in two years, driven almost entirely (but nott exclusively) by China and Latin America. Although every other part of the world was pretty bad too.

But as always the best insight comes from CAT's commentary of what is going on around the globe. Some excerpts from what is essentially a China bash fest:

The economic and industry conditions that were expected at the beginning of the year are occurring. World economic growth is about as the company expected: severe weakness in mining continues, construction-related ...

Diesel Prices Tank Amid Global Glut

Pump prices are cheaper than regular gasoline in 21 states.

United Airlines profit rises, announces $3 billion buyback plan

(Reuters) - United Continental Holdings Inc on Thursday reported a 51 percent rise in quarterly profit, helped by lower fuel and maintenance costs, and announced a $3 billion buyback plan.

Grexit Remains Most Likely Outcome For JPMorgan

On Wednesday evening, Greece took another step toward transforming itself into a vassal state of Brussels when lawmakers passed a second set of prior actions ahead of formal discussions around a third program for Athens. The vote itself was largely a formality, as the measures under consideration - which included EU rules on bank resolutions and civil justice reform - weren't as contentious as those Tsipras crammed through parliament last Thursday.

Nevertheless, the vote was important as a litmus test for Syriza. Tsipras executed a cabinet reshuffle late last week after 39 members of his coalition failed to support the first set of bailout prior actions, and analysts were watching Wednesday's vote closely to see if more Syriza MPs rebelled.

While the number of defectors fell, 31 still failed to support the measures, betraying a still-divided party heading into what are expected to be weeks-long negotiations between Athens and Brussels on the final terms of the third bailout. Here's more color from BBC:

After another long debate, and plenty of angry exchanges, parliament approved the new reforms in the early hours of the morning.

More than 30 MPs from the governing coalition voted against the measures - but crucially for Alexis Tsipras the number of rebels was slightly lower than last week.

Mr Tsipras was defiant telling parliament that he didn't really approve of the deal that had been imposed upon him by the rest of the eurozone. But he stressed that it was the only way to keep Greece in the sing ...

Dow Chemical profit beats estimates as margins continue to expand

(Reuters) - Dow Chemical Co reported a better-than-expected quarterly profit as the company's operating margins rose for the eleventh quarter in a row, helped largely by low raw material costs at its plastics-making business.

Rail Week Ending 18 July 2015: Rail Data Continues to be Soft

Econintersect: Week 28 of 2015 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) contracted according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. Intermodal traffic expanded year-over-year, which accounts for approximately half of movements - but weekly railcar counts continued in contraction.

Bank of America replaces CFO in management shake-up

(Reuters) - Bank of America Corp said on Wednesday it would replace its chief financial officer and some other top executives in a management shakeup, four months after the bank barely scraped by in a U.S. Federal Reserve stress test.

Japan Investors Use China Market Rout as a Chance to Buy

Some Japanese investors have used the recent market rout in China as a buying opportunity, reasoning that growth opportunities there make battered Chinese equities worth acquiring.

Frontrunning: July 23



Greek PM keeps lid on party rebellion to pass bailout vote (Reuters)

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras Remains Popular Despite Tough Bailout Deal (WSJ)

Beijing's stock rescue has $800 billion bark, small market bite (Reuters)

Capital exodus from China reaches $800bn as crisis deepens (Telegraph)

Why Investors Shy Away From China's $6.4 Trillion Bond Market (WSJ)

Oil Rigs Left Idling Turn Caribbean Into Expensive Parking Lot (BBG)

Bank of America replaces CFO in management shake-up (Reuters)

The Financial Buzz? Pearson to sell Financial Times (Reuters)

Doctors Object to High Cancer-Drug Prices (WSJ)

Global CEOs Who La ...

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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