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20Jul2015 Market Update: NASDAQ Set New High, Oil Falling Again, Gold Quiet After Plunge, Bearish Indicator Flags Flying

Written by Gary

Markets opened higher then fell into the red on low volume. By 11 am Mr. Market had enough and started to push upward where the Nasdaq set, again, a new historic high in an 8-day bull run for $SPX futures and CFDs. Matches longest run in 17mths: Last 9-day plus July 2013. Short-term indicators are modestly bearish and a downturn would delight traders.

Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

North and South American markets are mixed today. The IPC is up 0.68% while the S&P 500 gains 0.18%. The Bovespa is off 2.05%.

Gold prices plunged as much as 4 percent to their lowest in more than five years today as sellers in top consumer China offloaded the metal. Oil is seriously challenging its support and the U.S. dollar is making wide swings, sea-sawing at its old support remaining at the low 98 range. Prospects of dollar moving higher is projected.

Traders Corner - Health of the Market

Index Description Current Value Members Sentiment: % Bullish (the balance is Bearish) 75%
CNN's Fear & Greed Index Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear 31%
Investors Intelligence sets the breath Above 50 bullish 48.1% Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold.

27.97 NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($NYA200R) $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Dropping below 40%-35% signals serious continuing weakness and falling averages. 46.60% NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. 54.30% S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction. 56.60% 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) ten year note index value 23.72 Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) As long as the consumer discretionary holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy 79.26 NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors 10,985

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Gold hits five-year low under $1,100 on Chinese selling

LONDON (Reuters) - Gold prices plunged as much as 4 percent to their lowest in more than five years on Monday as sellers in top consumer China offloaded the metal.

Wall St higher as earnings boost confidence

(Reuters) - Wall Street was higher in early afternoon trading on Monday as better-than-expected earnings from big companies overshadowed a fall in commodities.

Morgan Stanley beats estimates as trading revenue jumps

(Reuters) - Morgan Stanley reported a stronger-than-expected second-quarter profit as its bond and equities trading businesses handily outperformed those of its Wall Street rivals.

Wall Street's Incessant Rose-Colored Glasses

Submitted by Joseph Calhoun via Alhambra Investment Partners,

All that we see or seem is but a dream within a dream.

Edgar Allan Poe

All things are subject to interpretation. Whichever interpretation prevails at a given time is a function of power not truth.

Friedrich Nietzsche

I was walking down the street wearing glasses when the prescription ran out.

Steven Wright

I think one of the hardest things to learn as an investor is that your opinion isn't worth all that much. You can believe anything you want but the market doesn't care. The only thing that matters at any given moment is what the majority believes and is willing to bet their hard earned dollars on. You can think the "Chinese stock bubble" doesn't matter and you can believe that the "Greek debt crisis" doesn't matter but if everyone else thinks those things matter then you are going to have to accept that and the market volatility that comes with it. People believe what they want to believe, see what they want to see and at times it seems as if everyone you pass is wearing Steven Wright's glasses. But that's the way things are, the reality in which we have to operate and you might as well get used to it.

I don't know whether the "Chinese stock market bubble" was a bubble or not or whether it was important to the global economy or markets. My logical side says probably not on the latter but I don't think most people would agree with that perception and as the Chinese market stabilized last week, US stocks found a bid, up over 2% on the week. Considering the lengths to which the Chinese ...

Fed to adopt new capital surcharges for eight largest U.S. banks

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve will meet on Monday to adopt a new rule for the eight largest U.S. banks to hold more equity capital, amid fears on Wall Street that the measure may make it less profitable.

New Disclosure Rules for Shell Companies in New York Luxury Real Estate Sales

The changes, spurred in part by a recent investigation by The New York Times, will help remove a "veil of secrecy" in high-end sales, a city official said.

Greece reopens banks, starts repaying some debts

ATHENS (Reuters) - Greece reopened its banks and ordered billions of euros owed to international creditors to be repaid on Monday in the first signs of a return to normal after last week's deal to agree a tough new package of bailout reforms.

Lockheed to buy Sikorsky for $9 billion; reviews options for IT business

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Lockheed Martin Corp said Monday it would buy Sikorsky Aircraft, the helicopter unit of United Technologies Corp , for $9 billion, and would review the possible sale or spinoff of $6 billion in other information technology and services businesses.

Last Night's Gold Slam So Furious It Halted The Market Not Once But Twice, And The Funniest "Explanation" Yet

Yesterday, just before the Chinese market opened, precious metals but mostly gold, flash crashed in milliseconds with a violent urgency never before seen. We documented the unprecedented event last night, but for those who missed it, the following chart from Nanex clearly lays out just how sudden the "out of nowhere" selling was, which led to not one but two 20-second halts in the gold futures market spaced out precisely 30 seconds apart as a result of a Velocity Logic (or lack thereof) event.

For those following the gold market, last night's event was not surprising: after all just on this website we have documented at least three occasions when furious algorithmic gold selling broke the gold futures market for at least 10 seconds, to wit:

September 12, 2013: Vicious Gold Slamdown Breaks Gold Market For 20 Seconds

October 11, 2013: "Stop Logic" Gold Slam Was So Furious It Shut Down CME Trading Again

and January 6, 2014: Gold Flash Crashes, Halts Trading As "Velocity Logic" Circuit Breakers Triggered

What was most notable about the last "velocity logic" ...

Pearson exploring sale of Financial Times: Bloomberg

LONDON (Reuters) - British publisher Pearson is exploring the sale of its Financial Times newspaper after receiving interest from potential buyers, Bloomberg reported on Monday, citing people familiar with the matter.

PayPal returns to market with $52 billion valuation

(Reuters) - PayPal Holdings Inc shares jumped as much as 11 percent in their highly anticipated return to the Nasdaq after more than a decade in eBay Inc's fold, valuing the digital payment processor at about $52 billion.

Blackstone, Corsair clinch $4 billion deal for First Eagle

(Reuters) - Private equity firms Blackstone Group LP and Corsair Capital have agreed to acquire a majority stake in First Eagle Investment Management, valuing the company at around $4 billion including debt, First Eagle announced on Monday.

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