The market was expecting the weekly initial unemployment claims at 265,000 to 295,000 (consensus 282,000) vs the 281,000 reported. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average moved from 279,250 (reported last week as 279,500) to 282,500. The rolling averages generally have been equal to or under 300,000 since August 2014.
ATHENS (Reuters) - Greece awoke with a political hangover on Thursday after parliament approved a stringent bailout program, thanks to the votes of the pro-European opposition, amid the worst protest violence this year.
A 3rd Greek bailout "Fix", an unchanged ECB with Draghi preparing to reiterate "whatever it takes" - apart from for Greece, and The Fed appearing more hawkishly tilted to a September liftoff (no matter what happens in Greece).... The result - EURUSD is collapsing...
FRANKFURT (Reuters) - The European Central Bank was set to hold emergency funding to Greek banks steady on Thursday, delaying an increase that would have allowed banks to partially reopen as it waits for European leaders to finalize a financial backstop.
By all accounts, Mario Draghi should remain "largely on message" in Thursday's ECB presser, with the deal struck in Brussels last weekend having spared him the inconvenience of convening a tense discussion about imminent Grexit.
Draghi (who may or may not have personally helped orchestrate the currency swaps with Goldman in 2001 that are largely responsible for Greece's current predicament) should reiterate the central bank's commitment to implement PSPP in full and the market will no doubt be looking for any color the ECB cares to add about the event risks surrounding the implementation of a third Greek program and the recent turmoil in Chinese equity markets.
Wildcards for today's press conference include: completely unexpected, market destabilizing commentary about persistent volatility and of course, glitter.
More from the sellside below.
* * *
Thursday should be a holding-pattern press conference with Mario Draghi largely repeating the policy message from the last meeting, that is, that the ECB is fully committed to its QE programme through to September 2016 and the risks are tilted to more QE, not less.
There is some potential for a mildly more dovish message on inflation given the decline in oil prices over the last couple of months, but this should not affect the medium-term view. We would be a little less surprised by this than a more positive message on the recovery.
The first message we would expect is a repeat of the Council's "prudent optimism" on the economic recovery and the chances of inflation returning sustainably to ...
And so the 2015 season of the Greek drama is coming to a close following last night's vote in Greek parliament to vote the country into even more austerity than was the case before Syriza was voted into power with promises of removing all austerity, even with Europe - which formally admits Greece is unsustainable in its current debt configuration - now terminally split on how to proceed, with Germany's finmin still calling for a "temporary Grexit", the IMF demanding massive debt haircuts, while the rest of Europe (and not so happy if one is Finnish or Dutch) just happy to kick the can for the third time.
The following tweet probably best captures the surreal nature of the "deal":
They all disagree to agree that this unsustainable deal is sustainable.
â€" Olivier Drot (@OlivierDrot) July 16, 2015
Which means that nothing is really fixed, Greece will remain a pass-through vehicle for the Troika to pay into so it can repay itself, while the Greek economy continues to disintegrate, and this whole theater will repeat itself in X months, just with a different set of players.
For, stocks, however kicking the can is the best possible news as it means even more debt will be layered, which will force the ECB to keep rates at zero and/or negative for longer, and nowhere is this seen better than in European equities, currently at 6 week highs, and US futures, both of which are surging this morning with Europe in the green across the board: Eurostoxx 50 +1.2%, FTSE 100 +0.5%, CAC 40 +1.4%, DAX +1.5%, IBEX +1.3%, FTSEMIB +1.2%, SMI +1%.
European equities trade in the green (Euro Stoxx: +1.5%) as exporters outperform amid the weaker EUR. In company specific news, Bloomberg sources suggest Volkswagen's (+2.4%) Audi abandoned their plans to sell 600,000 cars in China thi ...
LONDON, (Reuters) - Stocks rose and euro zone bond yields fell on Thursday as investors welcomed Greek parliamentary approval of a bailout plan, while the dollar hit a six-week high after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen reinforced expectations for a U.S. rate hike.
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