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15Jul2015 Market Update: Oils Fall Sharply, Averages Off Morning Highs, Yellen Double Talks Worrying Investors

Written by Gary

WTI oil has fallen sharply to its support and has stopped temporally while crude has a way to go to its support. The U.S. dollar climbed above its 97 dollar resistance and is sea-sawing sideways. The averages opened flat and climbed to highs not seen since June 25 this year and now have fallen off, melting down to match falling oil.

Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

North and South American markets are mixed. The S&P 500 is higher by 0.13%, while the Bovespa is leading the IPC lower. They are down 0.65% and 0.07% respectively.

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said the turmoil abroad was unlikely to affect the U.S. economy and that the Fed was on track to raise interest rates this year and is leaving the door open for a September rate increase, but investors still don't think the Fed will go through it.

Traders Corner - Health of the Market

Index Description Current Value Members Sentiment: % Bullish (the balance is Bearish) 68%
CNN's Fear & Greed Index Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear 27%
Investors Intelligence sets the breath Above 50 bullish 47.7% Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold.

46.73 NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($NYA200R) $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Dropping below 40%-35% signals serious continuing weakness and falling averages. 48.41% NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. 54.24% S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction. 56.80% 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) ten year note index value 23.58 Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) As long as the consumer discretionary holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy 78.93 NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors 10,973

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Chinese Arms Dealer Stuck in Real- Estate Quagmire

China Poly Group, a one-time wing of the People's Liberation Army that has delved into real estate, is taking flak from angry home buyers who say the developer has failed to deliver on promised amenities.

Yellen stands by Fed transparency as lawmakers turn up heat

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen on Wednesday resisted calls for more congressional oversight and intervention into the U.S. central bank, as members of a House of Representatives panel criticized her and other policymakers for failing to be more accountable.

Reluctant Tsipras fights to pass reforms in Greek parliament

ATHENS (Reuters) - Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras fought to contain a backlash from his own leftwing party on Wednesday as parliament prepared to vote on a sweeping austerity package European partners have demanded for a new bailout to keep Greece in the euro.

Bank of America's Profit Climbs

Bank of America said its quarterly profit surged as the second-largest U.S. bank by assets put most of its legal woes behind it. Results beat estimates.

Rep. Sean Duffy Crushes Yellen: "If Anyone Is Trying To Sweep This Leak Under The Rug - It's The Fed"

We said previously that today's "Humphrey-Hawkins" testimony Q&A would be punchy and sure enough while Chairman Hensarling took an early swing, Wisconsin Rep. Sean Duffy was the man to go toe-to-toe with Janet "I am the law" Yellen over the Fed's stunning ignorance of Congressional legal proceedings. "You did nothing," he begins, "you're so concerned about bringing the leaker to the forefront that what will you do? Nothing!" Yellen replies, reading from a seemingly prepared statement, The Fed has "clear rules" for leak investigations and Duffy cuts her off with a sharp upper cut, "That's true, you did not follow those rules.. if anyone is trying to sweep this under the rug, it is The Fed!" We suspect somewhere Pedro da Costa is smirking...


* * *

Not quite what we expected (but close)...

Analysis: IMF threat to pull out of Greek bailout challenges Germany

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund's threat to pull out of bailouts for Greece unless European partners grant Athens massive debt relief poses a stark challenge to Germany, the biggest creditor, which insists on IMF involvement in any future rescue.

Yellen's Rates Message Falls on Deaf Ears

Fed chief Janet Yellen is leaving the door open for a September rate increase, but investors still don't think the Fed will go through it.

Yellen's Contradictory Message On Upcoming Rate Hikes

Yellen, in an important sequence in her semiannual testimony to Congress, according to WSJ's Jon Hilsenrath, tipped her hand to the benefit of raising short-term interest rates sooner rather than later.

If the Fed waits much longer to raise rates - as some institutions like the IMF want it to do - it might be forced to move aggressively once it starts. However, if it moves sooner, that could allow it to proceed gradually and observe how the economy and markets respond.

"An advantage to beginning a little bit earlier is that we might have a more-gradual path of rate increases." A gradual path, she added, is a "prudent approach to take."

As Hilsenrath concludes, that adds weight to the argument the Fed might move rates for the first time in September, and explains why long-term bond yieldsd and stocks just rolled over...

So to summarize this outright inconsistency - The Fed (to a man or woman) swear up and down that all rate hikes will be slow and gradual and data dependent and yet here she is saying that unless they move sooner (rather than later) they may have to raise rates considerably more aggressively (but how does the Fed know what the data will be?)

On other words - The Fed already knows the lessons the Chinese just learned - once you lose control, it's all over!

BofA profit soars as expenses fall to lowest since 2008

(Reuters) - Bank of America Corp , the No. 2 U.S. bank by assets, reported its biggest quarterly profit in nearly four years on Wednesday as mortgage banking revenue soared and expenses fell to their lowest since the financial crisis.

U.S. producer inflation firming; industrial output rises

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. producer prices rose more than expected in June as the cost of gasoline and a range of other goods rose, indicating the recent oil-driven downward spiral in prices was abating.

Yellen Warns Congress Against Adding to Fed's Oversight

The central bank chairwoman says additional scrutiny, backed by Republicans, could cause collateral damage to the broader economy.

Delta no longer plans on 60 Boeing orders due to pilot vote: CEO

(Reuters) - Delta Air Lines Inc no longer plans to purchase 20 used and 40 new single-aisle aircraft from the Boeing Co now that its pilots rejected a tentative contract proposal, according to Delta's Chief Executive Officer Richard Anderson.

'Paper' Gold ETF Tumbles To 5-Year Lows

Last night we asked "is the paper gold selling over?" Judging by today's plunge in GLD - the biggest Gold ETF - to 5 year lows, it has a way to go...

For some context...

Charts: Bloomberg

China Stocks Tumble as Investors Doubt Beijing's Help

Stocks in China fell a second straight day, with a government-engineered recovery proving fleeting and surprisingly strong growth data dimming hopes for more stimulus.

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