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14Jul2015 Market Update: Averages Climbs Along With Oil As Short-Term Indicators In The Bullish Zone

Written by Gary

Markets oped flat as expected then started to climb significantly, which was unexpected. WTI oil has recovered all of its morning losses, the U.S. dollar sea-sawing sideways and the EU markets have closed in the green.

Investor short-term indicators are fractionally bullish and trader scalping looks good to the downside, but be careful.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

North and South American markets are higher today with shares in Mexico leading the region. The IPC is up 0.41% while U.S.'s S&P 500 is up 0.37% and Brazil's Bovespa is up 0.05%.

Traders Corner - Health of the Market

Index Description Current Value
Investors.com Members Sentiment: % Bullish (the balance is Bearish) 61%
CNN's Fear & Greed Index Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear 25%
Investors Intelligence sets the breath Above 50 bullish 47.4%
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold.

36.36

StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($NYA200R) $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Dropping below 40%-35% signals serious continuing weakness and falling averages. 47.30%
StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. 53.91%
StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction. 56.20%
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) ten year note index value 24.07
StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) As long as the consumer discretionary holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy 78.92
StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors 10,989

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

U.S. Stocks Turn Slightly Higher as Focus Returns to Earnings

U.S. stocks rose slightly Tuesday, adding to a rally that propelled the S&P 500 to its biggest three-day advance of the year.

J.P. Morgan's Profit Rises

J.P. Morgan's second-quarter profit increased 5.2%, topping expectations, as the firm slashed costs and benefited from strong deal-making activity that helped offset weaker trading revenue.

Wells Fargo profit drops for second straight quarter as costs rise

(Reuters) - Wells Fargo & Co, the largest U.S. mortgage lender, reported a drop in profit for the second straight quarter as employee costs and other expenses rose at a time when it is struggling with slow revenue growth.

Wall St. Rises Despite a Surprise Drop in Retail Sales

Corporate earnings were trickling in; JPMorgan Chase and Johnson & Johnson reported results that beat estimates.

JPMorgan profit beats estimates as tax bill and expenses fall

(Reuters) - JPMorgan Chase & Co , kicking off the second-quarter earnings season for U.S. banks, reported a stronger-than-expected rise in profit on Tuesday, helped by a drop in legal and restructuring expenses and a smaller tax bill.

WPX Energy enters oil-rich Permian basin with $2.35 billion buy

(Reuters) - Natural gas producer WPX Energy Inc agreed to buy privately held RKI Exploration & Production LLC for $2.35 billion, snapping up oil-rich assets in the Permian basin on the cheap amid a steep drop in crude prices.

IMF calls for Greece debt relief as Germany talks tough

ATHENS/BRUSSELS (Reuters) - A secret International Monetary Fund study showed Greece needs far more debt relief than European governments have been willing to contemplate so far, as Germany heaped pressure on Athens on Tuesday to reform and win back its partners' trust.

Diminishing Returns On Central-Planning Policy Extremes = 2016 Crash

Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog,

The problem with these policy extremes is that they are so painfully visibly acts of central-planning desperation.

It is perhaps fitting that I am posting a call for a financial crisis that fails to respond to the usual central-planning manipulations on Bastille Day. There are two main lessons for the present era we can draw from the storming of the much-hated Bastille fortress-prison by a revolutionary mob in 1789 Paris:

1. The authorities can only keep a lid on a simmering stew of injustice, inequality and structural imbalances for so long before the pot boils over.

2. Last-minute baby-step reforms designed to placate the masses (i.e. simulacra reforms that are all show and no substance) cannot resolve the crisis; rather, they only reveal the full depth of the injustices, inequalities and imbalances.

We are in the endgame of central planners' attempts to keep the lid on the simmering stew of profound imbalances that characterize the status quo. As I have described many times, Maintaining the Illusion of Stability Now Requires Ever-Greater Extremes of central-planning policies.

Mortgage/housing market melting down due to systemic fraud? Nationalize the mortgage market. This is what the federal/Federal Reserve central planners did post-2008, as 97% of all mortgages were guaranteed by federal agencies and the Fed bought $2 trillion of the $10 trillion outstanding mortgages in the U.S.--fully 20% of the entire mortgage market.

Stock market bubble popping? Ban short-selling, criminal ...

China's Tsinghua prepares $23 billion bid for U.S. chip maker Micron: sources

By Sneha Banerjee, Noel Randewich, Peter Henderson, Paul Carsten and Gerry Shih

Dow Tops 18,000 As Bad-News-Is-Good-News Meme Is Back

Because nothing says buy the dip like almost the worst retail sales print since Lehman...

Cash rallied out of the gate...

as the initial dip was bought aggressively...

Weak U.S. retail sales hint at slower economic growth

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. retail sales unexpectedly fell in June as households cut back on purchases of automobiles and a range of other goods, which could raise concerns the economy was slowing again.

Wall St. slightly higher as oil prices recover

(Reuters) - U.S. stocks edged higher, trading in a narrow range, early on Tuesday as investors focus on U.S. corporate earnings and oil prices pared some losses after a steep fall earlier in the day.

May 2015 Business Inventories and Sales Continue to be Soft.

Written by Steven Hansen

Econintersect's analysis of final business sales data (retail plus wholesale plus manufacturing) shows unadjusted sales declined compared to the previous month. Even with inflation adjustments, business sales is in contraction. The inventory-to-sales ratios remain at recessionary levels.

JPMorgan's Profit Rises 5% as Its Expenses Fall

The banking giant bolstered profits despite revenue declines in several divisions, including mortgage banking and fixed-income trading.

May Business Inventories-to-Sales Ratio Remains Stubbornly In Recession Territory

With a 0.3% rise MoM (as expected), Business Inventories grew for the 4th month in a row (but growth slowed in May from April). Sales rose slightly more MoM (+0.4%) but this left the crucial inventories-to-sales ratio deep in recession territory.

Highest level of inventories-to-sales since Lehman...

Charts: Bloomberg

Earnings Summary for Today

Earnings Calendar provided by Investing.com.

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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