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09Jul2015 Market Update: Markets Slipped Off Morning Highs, Moving Towards The Unchanged Line As Investors Seek Shelter

Written by Gary

U.S. markets opened higher after Chinese Markets rose over 5% and the hope of a debt resolution in Greece has stimulated investors. However, the averages have been melting down since the opening, although ­still in the green the prospect of the major indexes closing flat is a distinct possibility.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

North and South American markets are mixed today. The IPC is up 0.77% while the S&P 500 gains 0.53%. The Bovespa is off 1.40%.

Traders Corner - Health of the Market

Index Description Current Value
Investors.com Members Sentiment: % Bullish (the balance is Bearish) 54%
CNN's Fear & Greed Index Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear 11%
Investors Intelligence sets the breath Above 50 bullish 47.1%
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold. -37.00
StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($NYA200R) $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Dropping below 40%-35% signals serious continuing weakness and falling averages. 38.89%
StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. 53.19%
StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction. 54.60%
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) ten year note index value 22.91
StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) As long as the consumer discretionary holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy 76.67
StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors 10,727

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

U.S. Stocks Rally

U.S. stocks rose, though pulled back from their earlier highs, on the heels of gains in Chinese and European shares.

Apple's Early iPhone Call

Reports of a bigger production run show Apple is more bullish on the next iPhone than Wall Street.

China Stocks Make Biggest Daily Gain in Six Years

Chinese shares made their biggest daily gain in six years, a tentative step toward restoring confidence in Beijing's suite of measures to rescue its stock market.

Wall St. rebounds after Chinese stocks stem slide

(Reuters) - U.S. stocks were higher in early afternoon on Thursday as Beijing's efforts to halt a rout in Chinese stocks lifted markets around the world.

P&G to sell beauty business to Coty in $12.5 billion deal

(Reuters) - Coty Inc has sealed a deal to buy Procter & Gamble Co's beauty business, which includes brands such as Clairol and Wella, in a $12.5 billion transaction that will make Coty the world leader in perfume and hair care.

EU's Tusk urges debt relief as part of Greek deal

LUXEMBOURG/ATHENS (Reuters) - The European Union's chairman joined growing international calls for Greece to be granted debt restructuring as part of any new loan deal if it delivers convincing reforms to avert imminent bankruptcy.

Fed May Fly into Slack Over China, Greece

The global economy may be even more at risk from China and Greece than global markets.

NYSE says problem with new software led to trading outage

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The New York Stock Exchange said on Thursday that the nearly four-hour trading halt on the exchange on Wednesday was due to a technical problem that stemmed from new software that was rolled out the previous evening.

NYSE Issues Official Explanation Why Its Was Offline For Nearly 4 Hours, Blames Software Upgrade

Moments ago the NYSE released its explanation why its was offline for nearly 3.5 hours. Here is the official narrative:

On Tuesday evening, the NYSE began the rollout of a software release in preparation for the July 11 industry test of the upcoming SIP timestamp requirement. As is standard NYSE practice, the initial release was deployed on one trading unit. As customers began connecting after 7am on Wednesday morning, there were communication issues between customer gateways and the trading unit with the new release. It was determined that the NYSE and NYSE MKT customer gateways were not loaded with the proper configuration compatible with the new release.

Prior to the market open, gateways were updated with the correct version of software and stocks opened at 9:30am. However, the update to the gateways caused additional communication issues between the gateways and trading units, which began to manifest themselves mid-morning. At 11:09am, NYSE issued a Market Status message that a technical issue was being investigated. At 11:32am, because NYSE and NYSE MKT were actively trading but customers were still reporting unusual system behavior, the decision was made to suspend trading on NYSE and NYSE MKT. NYSE ARCA, Arca Options and NYSE AMEX Options were not impacted by this event and continued to trade normally.

NYSE and NYSE MKT began the process of canceling all open orders, working with customers to reconcile orders and trades, restarting all customer gateways and failing over to back-up trading units located in our Mahwah, NJ datacenter so trading could be resumed in a normal state. In consultation with regulators and industry, w ...

"Wall Street Has Been A World Of Pain Trades Since The End Of QE"

In his latest "Twilight Zone" comment piece, BofA's Michael Hartnett notes that YTD global asset returns, paltry as they are, are as follows: US dollar 7.3%, stocks 2.0%, cash flat, fixed income -3.0%, commodities -3.8%, and are summarized in the table below:

But most curious was the following:

These mediocre asset returns disguise treacherous trading conditions in past six months. Indeed, Wall Street has been a world of Pain Trades ever since the Fed signaled the end of QE early last year (Table 2). The end of Max Liquidity means the end of Minimum Volatility, and the lack of strong economic growth in recent quarters has caused the cyclical upside to asset prices to fade.

Which is why when the Fed's members say:

BRAINARD: FED WATCHING DEVELOPMENTS IN GREECE, CHINA CLOSELY

What they mean is they are watching both the 200DMA and any surges in cross-asset vol, which in the aftermath of China, and Greece, has been surging, and what's worse, cross-asset correaltion is soaring and rapidly on its way to 1.000.

Which is why those more cynical inclined have been asking: since the only reason the Fed is hiking rates is to have an "economic" alibi to justify QE4, ...

Fed's Brainard Backs Surcharge in Stress Tests

Federal Reserve governor Lael Brainard said it is important for the regulator to consider including a new capital surcharge for the biggest banks in its annual "stress tests."

P.&G. Sells 43 Beauty Brands to Coty

The deal includes hair products like Nice & Easy and VS Salonist, as well as cosmetics and fine fragrances from Gucci and Dolce & Gabbana.

Saipem's Russia Blow Dents Recovery Hopes --Heard on the Street

The cancellation of a pipeline contract by Gazprom merely adds to long list of potential concerns for the Italian oil-field services company.

Nissan to export Rogue for U.S. market from Japan plant

DETROIT (Reuters) - To meet robust U.S. demand for its Rogue small crossover vehicle, Nissan Motor Co said on Thursday it will export the model from Japan to North America, beginning next year.

Can You Tell the Difference Between a Robot and a Stock Analyst?

Wall Street is trying out artificial-intelligence services that use software to produce research reports.

Bits Blog: Facebook Gives Users More Control Over Their News Feeds

Facebook announced a set of features that will give users more control over what they want to see in their news feed. In essence, you get to reprogram the social network's algorithm.

Five Years Of Glorious IMF "Hockey Stick" Comedy

The topic of IMF's comedic forecasts and resulting disastrous policy errors has been discussed extensively, and repeatedly, over the years both elsewhere, and here. And while it does no justice to the human tragedy that ordinary Greeks have had to go through as part of 5 years of failed "bailouts" designed to preserve the wealth of German bankers, Greek oligarchs and a few corrupt politicians, the quarterly World Economic Outlook update affords even the most bankrupt Greeks, not to mention everyone else, an opportunity to laugh at what are now 5+ years of truly hilarious economic forecast hockeysticks, even as the reality continues to deteriorate with every passing year.

Case in point: earlier today the IMF released its latest forecast. In it, 2015 global GDP was cut from 3.5% to 3.3% due to previously unforeseen "risks from Greece to China". Or rather we should say cut again. Here is the history of the IMF's 2015 global GDP forecast started with July 2014:

But who cares about constantly being wrong right here, right now (aside from 11 million Greeks that is) ...

Fed's Brainard cites need for biggest U.S. banks to shrink

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The eight most important U.S. financial institutions may still cast too large of a shadow over the banking system, according to a Federal Reserve official on Thursday, and the firms could realize it's in the best interest of stakeholders to shrink.

Iron Ore Got You Down? Try Nuclear Waste

Hit by tumbling iron-ore prices, mining companies deep in the Australian outback are exploring a new strategy for cash: storing nuclear waste.

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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