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07Jul2015 Market Update: Afternoon Markets Flat In Quiet Trading Look For Further Declines

Written by Gary

Markets almost predictable today. Averages sink and rise to flat status and will probably sink modestly towards the close. Not much to report this afternoon.

U.S. stocks slipped this morning, weighed down by the deepening crisis in Greece and by a rout in commodities markets. We really won't know much for a couple of sessions, but a declining market seems reasonable.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

Traders Corner - Health of the Market

Index Description Current Value
Investors.com Members Sentiment: % Bullish (the balance is Bearish) 52%
CNN's Fear & Greed Index Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear 12%
Investors Intelligence sets the breath Above 50 bullish 49.6%
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold. -24.60
StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($NYA200R) $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Dropping below 40%-35% signals serious continuing weakness and falling averages.

42.74%

StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash.

53.74%

StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction. 54.60%
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) ten year note index value 22.15
StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) As long as the consumer discretionary holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy 77.15
StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors 10,751

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Greece faces last chance to stay in euro as cash runs out

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras launched a desperate bid to win fresh aid from skeptical creditors at an emergency euro zone summit on Tuesday, before his country's banks run out of money.

Stocks Storm Into The Green (Again) As Greek "Hope" Returns

Everyone was expeting today's "hope" headlines, and as usual, they were not disappointed, courtesy of Reuters and MNI:


GREECE PROPOSES INTERIM SOLUTION TO COVER JULY BEFORE LONG-TERM DEAL - GREEK GOVERNMENT OFFICIAL

TSIPRAS, MERKEL, HOLLANDE, JUNCKER DISCUSSED 'ROAD MAP' - OFFICIAL

GREECE GOV WILL PRESENT COMMON GROUND' FOR VIABLE DEAL WED - OFFICIAL

IRISH MINISTER SAYS GREECE MOVING TOWARD APPLYING FOR LARGE REQUEST FROM ISM

IRISH MINISTER SAYS NO REQUEST FOR HAIRCUT ON GREEK DEBT AT EUROGROUP MEETING

Is anyone surprised?

There is, as always, a footnote: "The proposal of the Greek side is for a settlement until the end of the month ... in order to prepare the big, viable deal during this brief period," the official said. And more:


GREECE OFFL: MUST FIND WAY TO PAY ECB JULY 20

GREECE OFFL: DEAL PROVIDED THAT ECB MAINTAINS STABILITY

GREECE OFFL: CANT GET DEAL IN 24 HRS BUT CAN SEND SIGNAL

The problem is that the ECB's immovable maturity is now due in less than 2 weeks, and if there is one thing the ECB has shown an unwillingness to do, it is to budge.

In any event, stocks promptly soared back into the green following Europe's close, the latest batch of "hope" and, of course, Goldman's bottom-ticking inflection point.

Strong 3 Year Auction Despite Lowest Bid To Cover Since August

With all the equity excitement from China to Europe to the US, it was easy to forget that the US has some $24 billion in budget deficit and debt rollovers to find in the form of 3 Year paper. And moments ago the US Treasury priced the first of the week bond issue when it sold 3 Year notes at a 0.932% yield, the lowest since April, and stopping through the When Issued 0.936%. While the Bid to Cover came in at a lowish 3.156, the weakest since last August, the internals made up for it, as the Direct take down jumped from 9.7% to 13.9%, and Indirects ended up with 47.7% of the issue leaving 38.4%, or 3% below the TTM average of 41.3%.

Perhaps not surprisingly, the 3Y OTR was, alongside the 10Y, the only maturity that was trading negative in repo, thereby once again hinting that today's auction would come in stronger than some had expected, as it just did.

The 'Smart' Money Has Been Dumping Stocks Since Greferendum

Despite the ups and down of the last few weeks, 'relative' stability in US equities has confirmed talking heads' bias that 'Greece is contained'. However, Bloomberg's Smart Money flow indicator suggests that the big money (that trades at the open and close) is anything but believing and has in fact been selling since Greferedum...

Charts: Bloomberg

U.S. trade deficit widens; weakness abroad fuels export drop

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. trade deficit widened in May, fueled by a drop in exports that could heighten concerns over weak overseas demand and a strong U.S. dollar.

Oil Prices Steady After Selloff

Oil prices pared losses Tuesday but held near multimonth lows on concerns about a growing glut of crude oil and turmoil in the Chinese stock market.

Greece Delays Offering New Plan on Debt

As eurozone finance ministers met in Brussels, the new Greek finance minister arrived without a new bailout proposal.

Earnings Summary for Today

Earnings Calendar provided by Investing.com.

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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