Markets almost predictable today. Averages sink and rise to flat status and will probably sink modestly towards the close. Not much to report this afternoon.
U.S. stocks slipped this morning, weighed down by the deepening crisis in Greece and by a rout in commodities markets. We really won't know much for a couple of sessions, but a declining market seems reasonable.
Here is the current market situation from CNN Money
$NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Dropping below 40%-35% signals serious continuing weakness and falling averages.
BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras launched a desperate bid to win fresh aid from skeptical creditors at an emergency euro zone summit on Tuesday, before his country's banks run out of money.
Everyone was expeting today's "hope" headlines, and as usual, they were not disappointed, courtesy of Reuters and MNI:
GREECE PROPOSES INTERIM SOLUTION TO COVER JULY BEFORE LONG-TERM DEAL - GREEK GOVERNMENT OFFICIAL
TSIPRAS, MERKEL, HOLLANDE, JUNCKER DISCUSSED 'ROAD MAP' - OFFICIAL
GREECE GOV WILL PRESENT COMMON GROUND' FOR VIABLE DEAL WED - OFFICIAL
IRISH MINISTER SAYS GREECE MOVING TOWARD APPLYING FOR LARGE REQUEST FROM ISM
IRISH MINISTER SAYS NO REQUEST FOR HAIRCUT ON GREEK DEBT AT EUROGROUP MEETING
Is anyone surprised?
There is, as always, a footnote: "The proposal of the Greek side is for a settlement until the end of the month ... in order to prepare the big, viable deal during this brief period," the official said. And more:
GREECE OFFL: MUST FIND WAY TO PAY ECB JULY 20
GREECE OFFL: DEAL PROVIDED THAT ECB MAINTAINS STABILITY
GREECE OFFL: CANT GET DEAL IN 24 HRS BUT CAN SEND SIGNAL
The problem is that the ECB's immovable maturity is now due in less than 2 weeks, and if there is one thing the ECB has shown an unwillingness to do, it is to budge.
In any event, stocks promptly soared back into the green following Europe's close, the latest batch of "hope" and, of course, Goldman's bottom-ticking inflection point.
With all the equity excitement from China to Europe to the US, it was easy to forget that the US has some $24 billion in budget deficit and debt rollovers to find in the form of 3 Year paper. And moments ago the US Treasury priced the first of the week bond issue when it sold 3 Year notes at a 0.932% yield, the lowest since April, and stopping through the When Issued 0.936%. While the Bid to Cover came in at a lowish 3.156, the weakest since last August, the internals made up for it, as the Direct take down jumped from 9.7% to 13.9%, and Indirects ended up with 47.7% of the issue leaving 38.4%, or 3% below the TTM average of 41.3%.
Perhaps not surprisingly, the 3Y OTR was, alongside the 10Y, the only maturity that was trading negative in repo, thereby once again hinting that today's auction would come in stronger than some had expected, as it just did.
Despite the ups and down of the last few weeks, 'relative' stability in US equities has confirmed talking heads' bias that 'Greece is contained'. However, Bloomberg's Smart Money flow indicator suggests that the big money (that trades at the open and close) is anything but believing and has in fact been selling since Greferedum...
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