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07Jul2015 Pre-Market Commentary: Asia, EU Markets In The Red, U.S. Futures In The Green, But For How Long As Greece Tries To Get A Reform Deal

Written by Gary

Mixed signals this morning as WTI oil falls, U.S. dollar rises and the the U.S. stock futures index is up fractionally. Chinese stocks closed in the red, EU markets currently in the red and the Greeks are running around the EU in hopes of securing a reform deal.

Markets are expected to open higher, then make the morning dip lower.

Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

European markets are lower today with shares in France off the most. The CAC 40 is down 0.74% while Germany's DAX is off 0.50% and London's FTSE 100 is lower by 0.18%.

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

U.S. Stock Futures Edge Higher

U.S. stock futures rose slightly Tuesday as eurozone officials were meeting in an effort to find a solution to the Greek financial crisis.

Is This a Coffee Shop or a Bank?

Some newer Capital One locations resemble cafes more than they do traditional bank branches. That is part of banks' broader struggle to maintain a connection with customers in the age of digital banking.

U.S. Trade Deficit Widens on Fall in Exports

The United States trade deficit widened in May, fueled by a drop in exports that could heighten concerns over weak overseas demand and a strong American dollar.

Greece faces last chance to stay in euro as cash runs out

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras had a final chance to present credible reform proposals to an emergency euro zone summit on Tuesday to persuade skeptical creditors to reopen aid talks before his country's banks run out of money.

Energy Credit Risk Re-Surges As WTI Crude Extends Losses To Worst Since November

Overnight hope has faded and WTI crude prices have retumbled as Iran deal expectations rebuild and China economic collapse fears grow. The last few days have seen crude break crucial support levels and tumble to 3 month lows, down over 12% - the biggest losing streak since November. Credit risk for HY energy names is resurgent, crushing the mal-investment dream in a double-whammy for the industry as cost of capital rises and incomes shrink.

As Cride re-tumbles...

So credit risk surges...

Following recent regulatory pressure to reduce exposure to E&P loans, one wonders who will catch this falling knife.

Charts: Bloomberg

China stocks fall again despite support measures

SHANGHAI (Reuters) - Chinese stocks fell on Tuesday, taking little comfort from a slew of support measures unleashed by Beijing in recent days, and unnerved by Chinese Premier Li Keqiang's failure to mention the market chaos in a statement on the economy.

No Crisis of Interest in Greek Islands

Vacation properties on the Greek island of Mykonos are drawing interest from global investors, but sales remain subdued.

Bears Dominate Blogger Sentiment Entering July 2015

Econintersect: The latest Blogger Sentiment Poll released 07 June 2015 by Ticker Sense shows bullish bloggers are have mostly disappeared .

China Shares Fall Amid Doubts Over Beijing's Rescue

Chinese stocks fell Tuesday, casting doubt on the government's ability to stem the slide.

Frontrunning: July 7

Greece faces last chance to stay in euro as cash runs out (Reuters)

Tsipras Begins Brussels Campaign to Keep Greece Inside the Euro (BBG)

Greek Crisis Shows How Germany's Power Polarizes Europe (WSJ)

Eurogroup Head Dijsselbloem Calls for â€'Credible' Greece Package (BBG)

Europe Not Playing â€'Domino Theory' Leaves Markets Calm on Greece (BBG)

China stocks fall again despite support measures (Reuters)

Chinese Trading Suspensions Freeze $1.4 Trillion of Shares Amid Rout (BBG)

Crude Creeps Higher After Downturn (WSJ)

Central Banks Across the World Pressured to Fight Against Euro Depreciation (BBG)

Big U.S. Banks Refile 'Living Wills' After Regulatory Rebuke (

U.S. futures higher ahead of Greece summit

(Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures rose on Tuesday ahead of a euro zone leaders summit at which Greece will bring a proposal in a last-ditch bid to secure an aid package to keep the country in the currency club.

US Stock Futures Rebound On "Hope" Although China Has Big Trouble As Market Begins To Freeze

When it comes to Greece, and Europe in general, "hope" continues to remain the driving strategy. As Bloomberg's Richard Breslow summarizes this morning, "if you were looking for a word to describe the general feeling of equity markets today, you might well pick hopeful. U.S. equity futures opened higher and have been up all day. European bourses opened cautiously higher as they await word, any word, from the European finance ministers or more importantly, Chancellor Merkel. Equity markets will continue to be very reactive to European headlines, but so far, no news has been taken as a reason for hope." Which incidentally, has been the general investment case for the past 6 years: "hope" that central banks know what they are doing.

Today's latest Eurogroup meeting at which Greece is expected to somehow provide a new deal proposal that will re-engage the European finmins after Greece resoundingly said "Oxi" to the last, more permissive proposal, is just the latest indication that nothing else but hope remains.

We'll know in hours if the hope was again in vain, because as the ECB quite clearly hinted yesterday, no deal and the ELA haircuts continue only the next time it will be a bail in, especially since overnight the ECB issued a new document where the debt monetizing bank quite amusing, decried the danger of moral hazard warning that the ELA could be {a threat to the financial independence of the NCB, for instance if ELA was not provided against sufficient collateral to safeguard such independence, an obvious concern about a possible breach of the monetary financing prohibition, or provision of ELA at overly generous conditions, which, in turn, could increase the risk of moral hazard on the side of financial institutions or responsible authorities." One just has to laugh at the hypocrisy.

A place where there is no laughter this morning, and almost no hope was China where after rebounding modestly by a lit ...

How Chinese Stocks Fell to Earth: 'My Hairdresser Said It Was a Bull Market'

After Chinese shares hit a seven-year high in June, new investors opened millions of brokerage accounts to play the rally. Many now face big losses despite Beijing's battle to stem a stock selloff.

The Greek Vote And The EU Miscalculation


-- this article authored by George Friedman

In a result that should surprise no one, the Greeks voted to reject European demands for additional austerity measures as the price for providing funds to allow Greek banks to operate. There are three reasons this should have been no surprise. First, the ruling Coalition of the Radical Left, or Syriza party, is ruling because it has an understanding of the Greek mood.

Muted Response to Greece Reflects Change in Markets

Financial markets' quiet response to the latest Greek crisis shows how much things have changed since worries about Greek debt helped disrupt global markets in 2011 and 2012.

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