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29Jun2015 Market Update: DOW Down 200 Points, U.S. Dollar Testing Support, WTI Oil Down, But Stable

Written by Gary

Markets headed lower as does the U.S. dollar. Global stocks fell sharply after a tumultuous weekend in Greece's debt crisis, but the broader impact on markets was limited because Greece is no longer so enmeshed in the region's financial system.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

North and South American markets are sharply lower today with shares in Brazil off the most. The Bovespa is down 1.99% while Mexico's IPC is off 1.56% and U.S.'s S&P 500 is lower by 1.28%.

Stunned Greeks faced shuttered banks, long supermarkets lines and overwhelming uncertainty on Monday as a breakdown in talks between Athens and its international creditors plunged the country deep into crisis.

Contracts to buy previously owned U.S. homes rose to their highest level in just over nine years in May, in a further boost to the housing market and the broader economic outlook.

Traders Corner - Health of the Market

Index Description Current Value
Investors.com Members Sentiment: % Bullish (the balance is Bearish) 58%
CNN's Fear & Greed Index Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear 34%
Investors Intelligence sets the breath Above 50 bullish 64.4%
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold. -19.13
StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($NYA200R) $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Dropping below 40%-35% signals serious continuing weakness and falling averages. 50.94%
StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. 60.08%
StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction. 60.40%
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) ten year note index value 23.55
StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) As long as the consumer discretionary holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy 76.88
StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors

10,872

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Oil Stocks Hit Two-Year High in Europe Hub

More than 60 million barrels were stored at a network of storage tanks in the Dutch ports of Amsterdam and Rotterdam and Belgium's Antwerp in June.

U.S. repo rate rises on Greece debt jitters

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The borrowing cost on a key source of overnight loans for Wall Street rose on Monday as a breakdown in talks between Greece and its creditors caused a mad dash for cash to fund trades in advance of the end of the second quarter.

Global stocks move lower as investors worry about fallout from Greece's escalating debt woes

NEW YORK (AP) — Global stock markets are stumbling as investors worry about fallout from Greece's deepening debt troubles as talks between the country and its creditors broke down over the weekend. Greece has shuttered its banks to prevent nervous depositors from pulling their money out, and the country faces a deadline Tuesday to may a big debt payment. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 213 points, or 1.2 percent, to 17,733 as of 11:45 a.m. Eastern time Monday. The Standard & Poor's 500 gave up 24 points, or 1.2 percent, to 2,076. The Nasdaq fell 71 points, or 1.4 percent, to 5,009.

Puerto Rico governor warns island can't pay $72B public debt, report released on economy

SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico (AP) — The governor warned that Puerto Rico can't pay its $72 billion public debt as international economists released a critical report Monday on the island's economy. The news from Gov. Alejandro Garcia Padilla delivered another jolt to the recession-gripped U.S. island, as well as a world financial system already worrying over Greece's collapsing finances. Garcia is scheduled to air a pre-recorded televised address late Monday afternoon as legislators continue to debate a $9.8 billion budget that calls for $674 million in cuts and sets aside $1.5 billion to help pay off the debt. The budget has to be approved by Tuesday. The governor hopes to defer debt payments while negotiating with creditors, spokesman Jesus Manuel Ortiz said late Sunday, confirming comments by Garcia that appeared in a report in The New York Times published that evening.

Lancashire Council in Britain Deals Blow to Shale Industry

A request by the shale gas explorer Cuadrilla Resources to drill four wells and test them with hydraulic fracturing was rejected.

Puerto Rico Urges Concessions From Creditors

Puerto Rico on Monday released a report calling for concessions from the island's creditors in order to stave off a looming crash crunch and take steps toward achieving fiscal health.

Exclusive: ECB rejects bumper Greek plea but existing support to stay - sources

ATHENS/FRANKFURT (Reuters) - The European Central Bank rejected Greece's request for 6 billion euros of extra emergency funds on Sunday, but is expected to continue limited support for Greek banks until the July 5 referendum, people with knowledge of the matter said.

European Bank Risk Spikes Most In 5 Years To 19-Month Highs

Europe's Senior Financial credit index traded a stunning 20bps wider at the open to 97bps before giving a little back and holding at around 90bps. This is the biggest spike in European bank risk since May 2010... and is the highest level of risk since December 2013.

Is faith in central bank omnipotence faltering?

Charts: Bloomberg

Dow Tumbles 200 Points - Gives Up 2015 Gains

Trannies touched unchanged and instantly reversed but Dow Industrials only managed a modest bounce of opening lows.

However, the momo did not last and there's no Nike to save the day today - The Dow is now down over 200 points and has tumbled back into the red for 2015.

Unleash The Bullard!!

China Struggles to Balance Volatile Markets

Last week's moves by the PBOCâ€"and the market's responseâ€"underline not just investors' dependency on signals from a central bank that often fails to clarify its intentions but also how hard it is for China's leaders to steer credit.

Chances of Greece euro exit balancing on a knife's edge: Reuters Poll

LONDON (Reuters) - Greece is almost certain to miss a 1.6 billion euro payment to the International Monetary Fund on Tuesday but it's touch-and-go whether it will have to leave the euro zone, a snap Reuters poll found.

Dow Jones falls more than 200 points as Grexit fears grow

(Reuters) - Most U.S. stocks fell on Monday after Greek bailout talks collapsed, intensifying fears that the country could be the first to exit the euro zone.

U.S. Pending Home Sales Hit Nine-Year High

Contracts to buy previously owned U.S. homes rose to their highest level in just over nine years in May, in a further boost to the housing market and the broader economic outlook.

German prosecutor launches new rate inquiry at Deutsche Bank: FT

FRANKFURT (Reuters) - German prosecutors have launched preliminary inquiries into the roles individuals may have played in connection with Deutsche Bank's participation in the interest rate-rigging scandal, the Financial Times reported online on Monday.

U.S. pending home sales hit nine-year high

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Contracts to buy previously owned U.S. homes rose to their highest level in just over nine years in May, in a further boost to the housing market and the broader economic outlook.

An Inadvertent Warning From BlackRock - Get Your Money Out Of Mutual Funds ASAP

Via Investment Research Dynamics,

BlackRock Inc. is seeking government clearance to set up an internal program in which mutual funds that get hit with client redemptions could temporarily borrow money from sister funds that are flush with cash. - Bloomberg News

We may have been early on warning about leaving your savings in the financial system. It's okay to be too early getting your money out of the system but it's fatal to be just one second too late. The gates are already in place in money market funds just waiting for the signal to be lowered

BlackRock's filing with the SEC to enable "have cash" funds to lend to "heavy redemption" funds should send shivers down the spine of anyone with funds invested in any BlackRock fund. In fact, it should horrify anyone invested in any mutual fund.

Larry Fink, BlackRock's chief executive officer, said in December that U.S. bond funds face increased volatility, adding that he expected a "dysfunctional market" lasting days or even weeks within the next two years. - Bloomberg

I warned last summer when the money market funds received authorization to put redemption gates in place that it was time to remove your money from these instruments. The only reason a gate would be needed is if the people running the funds believed ...

Lufthansa eyes Eurowings as platform for consolidation

FRANKFURT (Reuters) - (This version of the story was refiled to correct spelling of Dolomiti in paragraph 1)

Mission Accomplished SNB: Euro Storms Back To Unchanged

Because nothing of import happened this weekend. And if it did, the central banks "got it covered."

Charts: Bloomberg


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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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