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25Jun2015 Market Update: Markets Becoming Quiet As Investors Watch The Greek Drama Move Towards Default

Written by Gary

Afternoon trading has started to melt down to the opening lows on relatively low volume. Markets are flat and are expected to melt into the red before the closing bell. WTI oil is continuing to trend down towards it support and the U.S. dollar is sea-sawing sideways along with gold as investors are monitoring developments in Greek debt talks.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

North and South American markets are mixed today. The IPC is up 0.12% while the S&P 500 gains 0.09%. The Bovespa is off 1.38%.

Traders Corner - Health of the Market

Index Description Current Value
Investors.com Members Sentiment: % Bullish (the balance is Bearish) 64%
CNN's Fear & Greed Index Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear 39%
Investors Intelligence sets the breath Above 50 bullish 55.3%
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold. -3.44
StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($NYA200R) $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Dropping below 40%-35% signals serious continuing weakness and falling averages. 53.48%
StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. 60.98%
StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction. 62.40%
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) ten year note index value 24.09
StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) As long as the consumer discretionary holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy 77.92
StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors 11,065

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Greece's Slippery Grip on Global Markets

Greece and its creditors are still hunting an agreement. Markets, however, are showing signs that they don't want to wait for one. Greece isn't the only thing to think about, after all.

China Tips Cap to More Bank Lending

Scrapping a loan-to-deposit cap on lending should actually make China's banks safer.

No deal for Greece, creditors; top-level talks resume Saturday

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Greece failed again to clinch a deal with its international creditors on Thursday, setting up a last-ditch effort on Saturday to avert a default next week amid fears of financial market turmoil.

Common Sense: An Echo of Argentina in Greek Debt Crisis

The Greek debt crisis has similarities to Argentina's default in 2001. But experts say a default would be much worse for Greece.

Limited Progress Seen on Greek Debt Talks as Ministers' Meeting Ends

European Union policy makers are pushing for an agreement to prevent the impasse overshadowing a summit meeting of the bloc's national leaders.

"Red Is The New Green" For NFLX As Stock Split Deja Vu Continues

"House of Cards" indeed...

Deja vu?

Charts: Bloomberg

Robust U.S. consumer spending buoys economic growth outlook

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. consumer spending recorded its largest increase in nearly six years in May on strong demand for automobiles and other big-ticket items, further evidence that economic growth was accelerating in the second quarter.

Greek pledges rest on hard-to-keep promise of tax reforms

ATHENS (Reuters) - When Greece's tax police squad raided a busy cafe-restaurant in an upscale central Athens district earlier this year, it discovered two cash registers and an elaborate system of issuing fake receipts -- at least 15,000 of them, over four years.

Health Care Companies Move Shares Upward

Shares of health care companies were significantly higher after the Supreme Court's ruling in favor of the Affordable Care Act's insurance subsidies.

Merkel "Won't Be Blackmailed By Greece", Demands Deal Before Market Open On Monday

The Eurogroup meeting between EU finance ministers has broken up for the day and will reconvene on Saturday according to reports.

As noted earlier, Greece is now refusing to agree to the IMF's hardline stance on pension cuts and the VAT, while the IMF isn't interested in a deal that sees Athens escaping long-term fiscal reform by resorting to short-term, unenforceable solutions such as tax hikes.

As EU leaders convene for a two-day summit in Brussels (where it will be all Greece, all day, despite what anyone says), German Chancellor Angela Merkel now looks to be leaning towards drawing a line in the sand consistent with her finance minister, her lawmakers, and her central bank chief.


GERMANY'S MERKEL TOLD EU PARTY LEADERS THERE MUST BE DEAL ON GREECE BEFORE MARKETS OPEN ON MONDAY -PARTICIPANTS

MERKEL ALSO TOLD CONSERVATIVE EPP LEADERS "WE WON'T BE BLACKMAILED" BY GREECE -PARTICIPANTS

This marks a critical turn of events. Until now, Merkel had been relucant to fold under pressure from Wolfgang Schaeuble as the Chancellor viewed the geopolitical risks of Grexit as too great given the situation in Ukraine and recent friction between Europe and Russia including the extension of economic sanctions, an anti-trust suit against Gazprom, and the seizure of Russian state assets in France, Belgium, and Austria.

Now, it appears Merkel's patience has run out, and understandably so given not only the fact that sending a strong message to Greece is critical ...

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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