A closing market spinning top candle with the upper wick touching the upper boundary of a descending Bollinger band is a pretty good indicator that the markets will turn down tomorrow, but I wouldn't base my fortune on it happening.
The DOW closed Up 104 points, WTI oil recovered somewhat and the U.S. dollar rose appreciably. U.S. stocks were lifted today by gains in health-care and financial shares as well as optimism (Hopium) Greece will reach a bailout deal with creditors.
NEW YORK (AP) — U.S. stocks are closing higher on optimism that there will be a breakthrough in bailout talks between Greece and its lenders this week. Stocks also got a boost from deal news in the health care and energy sectors. The Dow Jones industrial average climbed 103 points, or 0.6 percent, to 18,119 on Monday. The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 12 points, or 0.6 percent, to 2,122. The Nasdaq composite gained 36 points, or 0.7 percent, to 5,153.
Hope triumphed over experience (and facts) as a slow leak turned into panic buying athe European open and then again after decent housing data and the US Open... weakness hit the moment Europe closed...
Cash equity indices opened gap up, rallied into the EU close... Nasdaq record high close
Then drifted weaker into the close... (performance from EU close)...
Despite US equity weakness and EUR retracement, Greek stocks held gains after the European close...
Perhaps Taylor Swift should cost AAPL millions more often...
BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Greece took a step back from the abyss on Monday when it presented new reform proposals that euro zone finance ministers cautiously welcomed as a possible basis for an agreement in the coming days to avert a looming default.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. home resales surged to a 5-1/2-year high in May as first-time buyers stepped into the market, the latest indication that housing and overall economic activity were gathering steam in the second quarter.
Stock markets in the US and Europe are in for a correction, while the euro is set to rise, according to Saxo Bank's Chief Economist Steen Jakobsen, nomatter what happens between Greece and its creditors. Steen also looks at the impact a rate hike from the US Federal Reserve would have on USD and what currencies could gain once the Fed decides to move on rates, noting that "the consensus has it wrong on the timing of US rate hike," as the credit cycle topped in June 2014. He believes that commodities and metals in particular offer opportunities for investors.
As he warns, "Change is Gonna Come..."
The consensus has it wrong on the timing of US rate hike
The marginal cost of capital is still rising
We need to accept a new period of lower growth is coming
Bonds market is rising without the economic growth to support it
The credit cycle peaked in June 2014
WTI crude will rise to set up excellent energy returns
Gold is still set to outperform this year
First, my analysis of the Federal Open Market Committee. There remains only one question of relevance for the future cost of capital.
NEW YORK (Reuters) - When JPMorgan Chase Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon had cancer last year, banker Jimmy Lee came to his office every day to give him a hug and tell him that he loved him like a brother.
If it seems like it was only yesterday (in trading days) when the ECB boosted its latest Greek ELA by â‚¬1.8 billion to a record high â‚¬85.9 billion, it's because it was.
Fast forward to Monday morning, when following a Friday bank run which sucked out another â‚¬1.6 billion coupled with another â‚¬1.6 billion withdrawn over the weekend and today, and perhaps the only question is why did the ECB not hike its latest "emergency" ELA disbursement more than just another â‚¬1.9 billion to a new record high of â‚¬87.8 billion: after all it will have no choice but to increase its emergency liquidity for Greece's increasingly more insolvent banks (because the collateral against which the ECB is lending after a modest haircut would be worth precisely zero if the ECB were to pull its backstop to the Greek banking system) tomorrow, or else engage Goldman's plan B in which a Greek terminal bank run ends up in a default and as a result the ECB proceeds to boost its QE to "regain credibility", send the EUR plunging (to assist the internal revaluation), and assure another year of record bonuses for Goldman.
This is how the now daily ELA increases have looked like for Greece since the arrival of the Syriza government:
But perhaps what is even more important is that net of the latest ELA increase, when adding some â‚¬38 billion in collateralized EFSF bonds and other collateral usage, we find that we have not only reached parity but crossed it: as of this moment Greek deposits, which are generously estimated at â‚¬120 billion but in reality are lower, are less than the total ECB claims on Greek banks and the Bank of Greece, amounting to â‚¬126 billion.
Homeownership has been one of the most significant issues in recent financial history. It first came to the forefront in 2002, when President George W. Bush spoke about the importance of homeownership and the American Dream. He announced policies like the American Dream Downpayment Initiative, which would pay the down payment for poor people. The resulting surge in homeownership pushed housing prices to unsustainable levels, and then it all came crashing down in 2008 in one giant national margin call. When Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson gave Bush the tap on the shoulder, he wondered, "How did we get here?" Now, seven years later, first-time urban home buyers are asking the same question.
If you have ever looked at real estate prices in San Francisco, you probably wondered if there were some kind of typo in the listing price. The median sales price of a home in San Francisco is $1.1 million.
These aren't mansions either. The median price per square foot is $958, which means that $1.1 million will get you a place that's only 1,150 square feet. This particular h ...
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