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19Jun2015 Market Update: Averages Mixed, Oil Down, Trading Mostly Sideways

Written by Gary

U.S. stocks were down and mixed in early afternoon trading today, a day after a strong rally pushed the Nasdaq Composite index to a record high, but the major indexes were still on track for their strongest weekly performance in about two months.

China shares suffered their worst week in over seven years amid rising fears of an equity bubble.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

North and South American markets are mixed. The IPC is higher by 0.04%, while the Bovespa is leading the S&P 500 lower. They are down 1.14% and 0.28% respectively.

Crude oil fell about 2 percent on Friday, the first decline after three days of gains, as worries over the Greek fiscal crisis, weaker oil products prices and pre-weekend profit taking undercut the market.

Traders Corner - Health of the Market

Index Description Current Value
Investors.com Members Sentiment: % Bullish (the balance is Bearish) 60%
CNN's Fear & Greed Index Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear 36%
Investors Intelligence sets the breath Above 50 bullish 55.2%
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold. +9.76
StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($NYA200R) $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Dropping below 40%-35% signals serious continuing weakness and falling averages. 55.15%
StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. 61.05%
StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction. 62.00%
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) ten year note index value 22.72
StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) As long as the consumer discretionary holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy 77.84
StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors 11,068

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

News Corp must face Dial, Heinz ad monopoly class action - judge

(Reuters) - News Corp has been ordered by a Manhattan federal judge to face a class action lawsuit accusing it of monopolizing the market for in-store promotions at some 52,500 retail stores across the United States.

Greek Leader, Pressuring E.U. Lenders, Cozies Up to Putin in Russia

Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras shared a stage with President Vladimir V. Putin at an annual economic forum in St. Petersburg.

ECB boosts emergency funding as Greek banks bleed, Tsipras calm

ATHENS/LUXEMBOURG (Reuters) - The European Central Bank expanded emergency funding for Greek banks as savers pulled out 1.2 billion euros in a single day on Friday, bankers said, but Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras insisted the nation's future in the euro was secure.

Wall Street dips but indexes on track for best week in two months

(Reuters) - U.S. stocks were down in early afternoon trading on Friday, a day after a strong rally pushed the Nasdaq Composite index to a record high, but the major indexes were still on track for their strongest weekly performance in about two months.

China Shares Suffer Worst Week Since 2008

China shares suffered their worst week in over seven years amid rising fears of an equity bubble.

Fed's Williams says wants stronger inflation data before hiking rates

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - A top Federal Reserve policymaker signaled Friday that despite a "nearly healed" U.S. labor market, he will not support raising U.S. interest rates until he sees stronger signs of inflation.

Comcast founder, cable industry leader Ralph Roberts dies at 95

(Reuters) - Comcast Corp founder and prominent cable industry executive Ralph Roberts died on Thursday at the age of 95, the company said.

Hayes tried to influence colleagues after joining Citi, Libor trial hears

LONDON (Reuters) - Tom Hayes, the former star trader on trial for alleged Libor-rigging, tried to build up relationships at Citigroup soon after joining from UBS , hoping to influence the rate-setting process there, according to evidence presented in a London court on Friday.

Europe Has Never Been Riskier

Europe's VIX has never been higher relative to the US' VIX... ever.

Europe's VIX is now trading 2.2 times that of US' VIX...

How much longer can US equity vol ignore the rest of the world?

Charts: Bloomberg

Cocoa Prices Climb as Crop Falls Short

Ghana may not be able to deliver enough cocoa to fulfill its contracts as dry weather and the late application of pesticides and fungicides on cocoa trees have caused the crop to shrink by nearly a third.

Helicopter makers upbeat on market despite oil-led slump

PARIS (Reuters) - Top U.S. and European helicopter executives said this week that the oil price-led commercial helicopter market slump would be temporary and that they will keep investing in new technologies given the sector's positive long-term outlook.

Oil down 2 percent on Greek worries, weaker products markets

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Crude oil fell about 2 percent on Friday, the first decline after three days of gains, as worries over the Greek fiscal crisis, weaker oil products prices and pre-weekend profit taking undercut the market.

Carl Icahn: Donald Trump Is Completely Correct That "We Are In A Bubble Like You've Never Seen Before"

Yesterday during an interview on MSNBC, presidential candidate Donald Trump said he has some big names in mind for the Treasury secretary if he wins the White House. "I'd like guys like Jack Welch. I like guys like Henry Kravis. I'd love to bring my friend Carl Icahn." He also opined on the economy and the stock market, admitting that the Fed has benefited people like him but that the economy and is in a "big fat economic and financial bubble like you've never seen before."

Moments ago Carl Icahn decided to use his Shareholders' Square Table as the venue in which to respond to his quasi-nomination for Treasury Secretary (he politely declines), and also to opine on Trump's warning that the market is "one big fat bubble" (he agrees).

My comments re Donald Trump running for President & wanting to nominate me for the Secretary of Treasury

I was extremely surprised to learn that Donald was running for President and even more surprised that he stated he would make me Secretary of Treasury. I am flattered but do not get up early enough in the morning to accept this opportunity.

There are others much more knowledgeable than I concerning Presidential elections. I will therefore decline to opine on his chances. But I am knowledgeable concerning markets and believe Donald is completely correct to be concerned that we have "a big fat bubble coming up. We have artificially induced low interest rates."

I personally believe we are sailing in dangerous unchartered waters. I can only hope we get to shore safely. Never in the history of the Federal Reserve have interest rates been arti ...

Retiring: Variable Annuities With Guaranteed Income Riders Require Careful Scrutiny

A guaranteed income for life that can increase may sound too good to resist, but investors should be certain they understand the terms and the costs.

E.C.B. Agrees to Extend Lifeline to Greece

The European Central Bank has decided to keep Greece's financial system on life support with more funding as anxious depositors accelerated withdrawals.

U.S sets 24 percent fuel efficiency goal for big trucks

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. regulators on Friday proposed a 24 percent improvement in fuel efficiency for heavy trucks by 2027 as part of the Obama administration's plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Gold on Track for Second Weekly Rise

Gold is on track for its second weekly rise aided by a softer dollar, the Greek debt debacle and the U.S. Federal Reserve chairperson, Janet Yellen's, dovish comments from this week's monetary policy statement.

gold-usd-goldcore-19-06-2015
Gold in USD - 1 Week

The Fed said yesterday that a rate hike would come only after further improvement in the U.S. labor markets and more confidence that inflation would rise. The Fed is estimating lower rates now in 2016-2017, than those which had been forecasted in March. In addition, most policy makers are in favor of hiking rates only once this year or waiting until next year.

Shanghai Gold Exchange premiums were at $2 an ounce to the global benchmark, from a premium of about $1-$2 yesterday. In China, surging stock markets appear to have drawn investors away from the yellow metal in recent months but the recent sharp falls in the Chinese stock market may lead to renewed Chinese demand.

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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