Averages continue to melt upwards on low volume after morning opening lows. Crude Oil trying to maintain trend support, US dollar hangs on by a thread near its support. Yesterday's reversal spinning top candle seems to have been correct once again, but today's indicators are very murky about any upwards market continuation as the Greek drama goes on.
Here is the current market situation from CNN Money
North and South American markets are mixed today. The IPC is up 0.69% while the S&P 500 gains 0.43%. The Bovespa is off 0.05%.
$NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Dropping below 40%-35% signals serious continuing weakness and falling averages.
Early Tuesday, nine civil liberties and consumer advocate groups announced that they were withdrawing from talks with trade associations over how to write guidelines for the commercial use of face recognition technology on consumers.
ATHENS/BERLIN (Reuters) - Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras lashed out at Greece's creditors on Tuesday, accusing them of trying to "humiliate" Greeks, as he defied a drumbeat of warnings that Europe is preparing for his country to leave the euro.
PARIS (Reuters) - The boom in commercial plane orders of recent years appears to be giving way to a more sustainable pace of demand at the 2015 Paris air show, with jetmakers increasingly focused on lifting production to meet their record backlog of sales.
(Reuters) - Kirk Kerkorian, the son of poor Armenian immigrants who used his gambler's instincts to become a multibillionaire Las Vegas casino tycoon, Hollywood mogul, airline owner and auto industry investor, died at age 98.
Submitted by Anthony Saunders, via The Burning Platform blog,
At last. Residential mortgage (1-4 unit) lending is almost back to zero percent growth!
It has been a tough time for mortgage lenders since the passing of Dodd-Frank and the creation of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB). The Urban Institute has this chart showing that the absence of risky loans in the economy is the answer
Now, hold on one second! I am unclear as to how Laurie Goodman and company define "risky," but low down payment loans are more risky than 20% down payment loans empirically. I don't know if the Urban Institute counts 3-5% down payment loans as risky in their chart.
Why mention loan down payment lending? Because Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are the primary purchaser of single-family mortgages since the housing bubble burst. The FHA is an insurer, not a loan purchaser.
Here is some empirical evidence from Fannie Mae mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Here is the average loan-to-value (LTV) ratio for Fannie Mae 4% coupon MBS:
The Census Bureau is no stranger when it comes to reporting absolute gibberish "data": recall one month ago the bureau reported the biggest housing starts print in the Northeast since June of 2008 on what many tried to "justify" as weather-deferred construction, but which will soon be revised far lower.
As it turns out, that was nothing compared to the even more outrageous print that the good staffers at HUD reported in the latest, May, housing data. And while it was once again all about the Northeast, this time it wasn't starts, it was permits.
Spot the outlier in housing permits among the four US census regions. Hint: at an annual change of 165.8%, it has never been higher.
Here is the same ridiculous "data" only instead of Y/Y% change, we show actual permits in SAAR terms:
What is most amusing is that Ron Griess of the Chart Store who brought this paranormal data point to our attention, called the Census bureau and HUD employees assured him the "data was correct."
If that "data" is correct one would hate to see ...
(Reuters) - U.S. stocks were up on Tuesday, after two straight sessions of losses, as deal activity picked up in the consumer and healthcare sectors and investors waited for the outcome of a two-day Federal Reserve meeting.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. permits for future home construction surged to a near eight-year high in May, suggesting a building up of momentum in housing and the broader economy after a dismal performance at the start of the year.
Corrections do not happen all at once. Normally when stocks break a major trendline, they usually bounce soon thereafter. If the bounce brings stocks back up above the former trendline, (reclaiming it) then the trend remains intact.
If, however, stocks are rejected by the former trendline, then the breakdown is confirmed and you're heading down.
Take a look at the market today.
As you can see, the S&P 500 was rejected by former support. The uptrend has been broken. The first downside target is 2,050 or so. If that doesn't hold then the door is open to a more serious breakdown (more on this in a moment).
This breakdown is not a minor development. That lower trendline actually runs all the way back to late 2013. We've only broken it once before in early October 2014. And it took considerable Fed intervention to create a bounce at that time.
Unfortunately for stocks, this time around the Fed isn't engaging in QE anymore... so that market prop won't be in place.
If stocks don't hold at 2,050 then the ultimate downside target established by the series of lower lows in 2014 is a very REAL possibility.
If you've yet to take action to prepare for this, we offer a FREE investment report called the Financial Crisis &q ...
As Chinese stock market capitalization topped $10 trillion for the first time in history, so the spectre of total and utter speculative mania looms as the balance of margin loans tops $2.2 trillion and remains among the most obvious early warning systems for an increasingly fragile government-sponsored equity bubble. The problem, as Bloomberg reports, is that any pullback by margin traders would undercut one of the biggest drivers of the rally leaving the "regulator trying to slow down the growth without triggering panic," as Bocom's chief China strategist explains.
As Bocom's Hao makes clear in the following chart...
"If margin loan growth starts to decelerate notably, the market will slow down. If non-compliant margin lending accounts must be closed, the market will crash."
The China Securities Regulatory Commission is planning to curb the amount of margin finance and short selling to no more than four times a brokerage's net capital, according to draft rules posted on its website June 12. There is currently no ceiling. The CSRC is also considering allowing brokerages to roll over margin trading and short-selling contracts, instead of closing them out after six months, which may quell volatility if the rally falters.
There were two notable developments in the latest BofA European fund managers survey. The first is that unlike recent months when everyone was convinced the latest Greek episode would have a quick and simple happy ending, now there is an identical split when it comes to expectations of what the fate of Greece will be with the same number of respondents (43%) saying a last minute Greek deal will be cobbled together to kick the can once again, as the managers who think Greece defaults (first to the IMF then to everyone else) but is not kicked out of the Eurozone. Only 15% still believe a full-blown Grexit is in the cards. BofA's comment appears superfluous: "We believe a peaceful Greek outcome is a necessary condition for a rally."
But while the optimistic bias is shifting, if slowly, one place where the "fund managers" are at least admitting that things are changing for the worse in Europe is their latest, June, estimation of the biggest tail risks. Here, while "geopolitical crisis" and a behind-the-curve Fed still remain in the top two "tail risks", at 21% and 20% respectively, just as they were last month, what is concerning is the third most prevalent fear which, at 18%, is a Eurozone breakup.
It is notable that one month ago this fear did not even register, suggesting just how fragile the Eurozone was and still re ...
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