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03Jun2015 Pre-Market Commentary: U.S. Futures Higher, Not Expected To Hold As U.S. Dollar Rises

Written by Gary

U.S. stock futures rose this morning as investors focused on upbeat news out of Europe but that euphoria isn't expected to last for long.

Greece threatened to miss a loan repayment to the IMF this week, opening the way for possible default and the U.S. only added 201 K jobs in May, statistically the same as last month (which was revised downward) - and pundits were disappointed with last month's weak numbers.

Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

European markets are broadly higher today with shares in France leading the region. The CAC 40 is up 1.29% while Germany's DAX is up 1.27% and London's FTSE 100 is up 0.57%.

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

ECB Leaves Rates Unchanged

The European Central Bank kept its key interest rates unchanged at record lows amid signs that the eurozone's economy is slowly recovering.

Bits Blog: Whitman Paints a Vague Picture of HP Enterprise

At a meeting of HP's biggest corporate customers, Meg Whitman gave some details of the enterprise business she'll create Nov. 1. She's counting on making her company a big consulting partner.

May 2015 ADP Job Growth at 201,000 - At Expectations

Written by Steven Hansen

ADP reported non-farm private jobs growth at 201,000. The year-over-year rates of growth is statistically the same as last month (which was revised downward) - and pundits were disappointed with last month's weak numbers. The rolling averages of year-over-year jobs growth rate for the last year remain around 2.4%. Therefore there is likely seasonality issues with this data series.

U.S. private sector adds 201,000 jobs in May: ADP

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. private employers added 201,000 jobs in May, compared with a downwardly revised 165,000 jobs in April which were the fewest since January 2014, a report by a payrolls processor showed on Wednesday.

Greece threatens to skip IMF payment; Tsipras set for EU talks

ATHENS (Reuters) - Greece threatened to miss a loan repayment to the IMF this week, opening the way for possible default, just hours before creditors were expected to present an ultimatum offering Athens funds in return for economic reform.

OPEC to pump flat-out for months more

VIENNA (Reuters) - OPEC is set to carry on pumping oil nearly flat-out for months more, content that last year's shock market therapy has revived demand and knocked back growing competition.

Hamburger chain Wendy's to buy back $1.4 billion of shares

(Reuters) - Hamburger chain Wendy's Co said it would buy back $1.4 billion of shares by the end of 2016, including $211 million from Nelson Peltz's Trian Group, its largest shareholder.

ECB to focus on roll out of QE as Greece deadline looms

FRANKFURT (Reuters) - European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is set to reaffirm his commitment to quantitative easing and may call on Greece to finally agree a fresh aid deal with its creditors after the ECB left interest rates on hold as expected on Wednesday.

Greece Admits It Will Not Make IMF Payment On Friday, No Deal Expected Wednesday

For days, Greek officials have been insistent that the country will make a €300 million payment to the IMF this Friday and thus avoid a default.

Last month, we heard the same rhetoric out of Athens and as it turns out, the government had prearranged an end-around whereby Greece tapped its IMF SDR reserves to stay current. In other words, the IMF paid itself. We suspected that some similar arrangement might be in the offing this month when economy minister George Stathakis said bundling June's payments would not be necessary because Greece was looking at a "technical solution" to make the June 5 payment.

On Tuesday evening we noted that some Greek officials seemed to be suggesting that the "technical solution" was simply a veiled reference to securing a deal that would allow the country to use a portion of its aid disbursement to pay the Fund at the end of the week. That now appears to have been confirmed with a Syriza spokesman saying that if Tsipras does not ink a deal in the next 48 hours, Greece will miss Friday's payment.

Via Reuters:

Greece will not make a June 5 repayment to the International Monetary Fund if there is no prospect of an aid-for-reforms deal with its international creditors soon, the spokesman for the ruling Syriza party's lawmakers said on Wednesday.

The payment of 300 million euros ($335 million) is the first of four this month totaling 1.6 billion euros from a country that depends on foreign aid to stay afloat.

Frontrunning: June 3

Obama signs bill reforming surveillance program (Reuters)

Tsipras to meet Juncker in Brussels for talks on agreement (AFP)

Spot the irony: OECD cuts global growth forecast, says recovery taking hold (Reuters)

The Secret Money Behind Vladimir Putin's War Machine (BBG)

Companies' Borrowing Spree Darkens Stock Market Future (BBG)

How OPEC Hurt Big Oil (WSJ)

What's OPEC Going to Do With Iran's Million Barrels a Day? (BBG)

Draghi's Europe Looks Healthiest for Years Despite Greece (BBG)

Bund yields inch higher, euro holds ahead of ECB (Reuters)

Greece will not pay IMF on Friday without prospect of a deal (

Futures higher ahead of ECB meeting, private jobs data

(Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures were higher on Wednesday ahead of the European Central Bank's monetary policy meeting and the release of private sector job numbers.

How OPEC Hurt Big Oil

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' gathering in Vienna amounts to a counseling session of sorts between global oil companies and the cartelâ€"but no one expects the good times to return soon.

Futures Rise, Bund Rout Pauses On "Cautious Optimism" Ahead Of Greek Endgame

With the Greek IMF payment just 48 hours away, and Europe having submitted its best and final offer to Greece in a battle of "deal proposals", today Greek PM Tsipras will meet with European Commission President Juncker to discuss the recently submitted reform proposals by the Greek premier. However, a Greek government spokesman says that Greek PM Tsipras will not meet Eurogroup's Dijsselbloem despite several reports suggesting that they would do so later today. Last night it was reported that the EU, ECB, IMF agreed on terms for a cash-for-reform plan to be presented to Greece. However, a senior EU official has said that they are concerned that the stringent measures of the proposal could be met with rejection by Greece.

As a result, European markets, which have been following the Greek drama closely, are mixed, as are US equity futures. Price action in Europe thus far has taken place in a considerably more confined range than in recent days with participants pausing for breath ahead of upcoming key risk events. Equities currently trade with no sustained direction with a modest bout of underperformance in the FTSE 100 with miners leading the way lower for the index amid softness in metals markets.

More importantly in the European bond market after yesterday's latest historic one-day rout, Bunds have managed to temporarily halt their recent decline after trading relatively sideways as attention turns towards the upcoming ECB press conference.

Indeed, it is not only Greece on the calendar today but so is the ECB's monthly press conference. According to SocGen, with deflation fears largely averted, expect no policy action from Mario Draghi in just over two hours and only small adjustments to staff projections. Most of the interesting points are likely to emerge during the press conference (in which reporters will be screened far more carefully this time), with questions focused on the solvency of Greek banks (especially in case of the potentia ...

Peer-to-Peer Lending Takes Off in China

Peer-to-peer lenders have taken off in China, filling a demand for credit from consumers and partly solving a longstanding problem of getting financing to small businesses.

Bund yields inch higher, euro holds ahead of ECB

LONDON (Reuters) - German debt yields added to their biggest jump in almost three years and the euro held on to its gains on Wednesday, as investors waited to hear the ECB's view of a turbulent run for markets and its hopes for a Greek aid deal.

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