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01May2015 Market Close: Markets Closed Up, DOW Up Triple Digits, Volume Low, HFT Manipulation Suspected

Written by Gary

By 4 pm the markets closed up sucking in some badly need 'sheeples' for the coming fleecing. Oil recovered slightly, as did gold and the U.S dollar.

Markets were expected to move lower today, but the quiet times of May Day, low volume and HFT algo computers makes a perfect combination for manipulating the markets. The DOW is up triple digits just about wiping out yesterdays losses and the SP500 came out on top, but is it going to last?

Todays S&P 500 Chart

The US oil and gas rig count from Baker Hughes down for a 21st week. Situation still looking like 2008:

The Market in Perspective

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Oil Heads Lower as Iraq Exports Hit Record

Oil prices eased off 2015 highs on Friday after Iraq said its crude oil exports hit a record in April, and as the dollar strengthened.

Brent and U.S. crude rallied between 20 and 25 percent in April, helped by a weaker dollar and bets that a global supply glut would ease, following the June-to-January sell-off that halved prices from above $100 a barrel.

Friday's pullback was sparked first by news that Iraq's oil exports rose in April to a record 3.08 million barrels per day (bpd) from 2.98 million bpd in March, which served as a reminder of ample supply in the market.

OPEC supply in April rose to its highest in more than two years at 31.04 million bpd, according to a Reuters survey.

Read More >>

Tying Fed to policy rule could lead to worse outcomes: Williams

ORANGE, Calif. (Reuters) - Requiring the Federal Reserve to operate according to a monetary policy rule could generate worse economic outcomes than using a goal-based mandate like an inflation target, a top Federal Reserve official said on Friday.

A Mixed Situation?

The market is showing a "lot" of weakness, and Inflowing Liquidity levels are showing a "lot" of money coming in to support the market.

Today's Inflowing Liquidity chart shows:

1. Liquidity is still in upper Quadrant 1 which is still in Expansion territory.
2. That there was a down tick in Liquidity yesterday.
3. That the net Inflowing Liquidity amount was inside the current triangular formation and above the triangle's support line.

In spite of the weakness and scariness of the market yesterday, those who go short with this level of Inflowing Liquidity normally get hurt ... so be very careful.

Wall St. rebounds as investors buy beaten-down shares

(Reuters) - U.S. stocks bounced back sharply on Friday as investors snapped up some of this week's most beaten-down shares, including in the healthcare and technology sectors, and as data pointed to a pickup in economic activity.

Five Charts Showing the US is Back in Recession

The US economy is veering towards recession.

The "official" GDP growth number is so heavily massaged that it borders on fiction. So as far as economic growth goes, if you want a clear picture, you need to look at nominal GDP growth. The reason for this is that because the Fed greatly understates inflation, the official GDP numbers are horribly inaccurate.

By using nominal GDP measures, you remove the Feds' phony deflator metric. With that in mind, consider the year over year change in nominal GDP that has occurred.

Historically, anytime the chart drops to 4, the US has been in recession. It's been around this number ever since the recession "ended" in 2009. Small wonder this "recovery" feels like a recession to most Americans.

However, even in this weak climate, we are getting signs that the US economy is rolling over.

Consider the recent rejections of credit applications data:

Then there is the collapse in corporate profits. (h/t Societe General)

Indeed, annual corporate profits fell in 2014. The last time profits fell like this was in 2008, when the US was already in recession.

We also have the Regional Manufacturing Surveys and Dallas Fed Inventory (both H/T Not Jim Cramer) hitting levels associated with recessions.

&nb ...

Tesla moves into batteries that store energy for homes, businesses

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - Tesla Motors Inc on Thursday unveiled Tesla Energy - storage systems or batteries for homes, companies and utilities that will expand its business beyond electric vehicles and tap into a fast-growing area of the energy industry.

Daniel Loeb's Third Point Big on Yum

Daniel Loeb's Third Point has built a "significant" position in KFC and Pizza Hut parent Yum Brands, based on optimism in its growth potential in China.

Key Signals That Oil Prices Are On The Up

Submitted by Nick Cunningham via OilPrice.com,

Oil prices are showing some signs of life as key indicators start pointing in a bullish direction.

One of the big indicators to watch that will determine which way oil prices are heading is the rate at which oil producers are storing oil. As U.S. shale production surged in recent years, and demand began to slow, oil was increasingly diverted into storage. The U.S. saw oil stockpiles explode to their highest level since at least World War II over the last six months.

USCrudeOilStocks

The big question is when demand will sufficiently pick up and/or supply will sufficiently decrease so that those inventories stop rising. The speed with which inventories are increasing has indeed slowed a bit. Two weeks ago, there was a rise of just 1.3 million barrels, one of the lowest levels in months.

PIRA Energy Group, an energy research firm, is convinced that the oil markets have turned a corner. "PIRA believes that vast majority of the bearish news is already out and that the price lows for global crude oil markers are in," the company wrote in its weekly energy recap. PIRA predicts that the oil stock build will peak in May and then start to decline somewhere between June and August. U.S. oil production is already showing signs of decline, demand is picking up, and even a flood of Saudi oil has been swallowed by markets. Oil prices have risen by nearly 30 percent since March, and have appeared to stabilize for th ...

Auto Sales Drop, Miss For 5th Month In A Row; Worst Year-To-Date Performance Since 2009

Spin that Phil LeBeau...

This is the biggest miss for domestic auto sales since September (and weakest total print since last April)... This is the longest streak of missed expectations since 2008

Printing 12.88mm SAAR vs 13.40mm in March - this is the biggest year-to-date drop since 2009.

Charts: Bloomberg

Factory Activity Holds Steady, but Construction Slips

The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index was unchanged in April after falling the previous five months, but building activity slowed.

Europe Has A "Severe Case Of Low-Flation", Goldman Says

Thursday's news that eurozone inflation came in at a brisk 0% in April was cause for some to celebrate the end of disinflationary pressures across the currency bloc. The fact that, for the first time in four months, prices didn't fall on average is apparently proof that ECB asset purchases have rescued the region from deflation which, in a world built on debt, is an adversary that must be overcome at all costs. Here's Bloomberg:

Euro-area consumer prices ended a four-month streak of declines after the European Central Bank started pumping billions of euros into the bloc's economy through its quantitative-easing program…

The improvement helps ECB President Mario Draghi's case that large-scale asset purchases have already shown success in averting deflation in the 19-nation economy. Bank lending increased in March for the first time since 2012 and encouraging data from Germany to Spain point to a strengthening recovery even as the Greek crisis undermines confidence.

"The big bad deflationary spiral lasted all of four months," said Nick Kounis, head of macro research at ABN Amro Bank NV in Amsterdam. "We expect headline inflation to accelerate to above 1 percent by year end as the depressing impact of energy prices fades," while "core inflation will start to pick up as the effects of the past depreciation of the euro and the recovery of the economy feed through"...

Visa, MasterCard Get Credit Where Due

Visa and MasterCard showed with healthy first-quarter results that they can swim against the economic current.

We Just Broke 2008's Record For The Fastest Economic Unraveling!

Submitted by Thad Beversdorf via FirstRebuttal.com,

In my last piece I provided a technical analysis that signaled we are entering the first stage of a bursting bubble that we'll call the Fed Bubble. Now while I do believe technicals provide good insight to the economic landscape I see them as a necessary rather sufficient qualifier. In order to be truly confident that our technicals are providing an accurate story we need to understand the fundamentals behind the charts, as we often find the engine light comes on due to a loose wire rather than a problem with the engine.

The final Q1 GDP revision was just released and we saw that GDP has again missed expectations by such a large margin that 2015 is another write off for a 3% growth year. Almost comically we heard the same excuses we got last year. "Weather was wintery and next year is going to be the turnaround year". So in order to explain to these supposed economic and market 'experts' who seem wholly incapable of understanding economic and market forces with any sense of accuracy, let's run through a few fundamentals.

I want to hone in on the category of consumer spending that is first to go away so that we may capture the first signals of a consumer spending pull back. A good proxy for this is the Johnson Redbook Chain Store yoy sales. This captures the consumer spending taking place at large department stores (Macy's, Kohls, Walmart, Kmart, etc). This is going to be where the real discretionary retail spending takes place, as in do I have enough space on my credit card ...

McDonald's shares poised for big move; bullish bets rise

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Options traders appear poised for a big move in McDonald's Corp's shares as the world's biggest restaurant chain is set to unveil a much-awaited turnaround plan on Monday, and bullish bets have picked up in recent days.

U.S. Auto Sales Jumped in April, Again Led by S.U.V.s and Pickups

General Motors posted a 6 percent increase and Ford Motor a 5 percent rise as Americans continue to buy the larger vehicles instead of cars.

Mission Accomplished? S&P Recovers Yesterday's Losses On 30%-Below-Average Volume

BTFD... in 1-lots...

The S&P has recovered its post-FOMC losses... (for now)

Trannies already well ahead of any fear or risk from yesterday... Small Caps seem unimpressed.

and all on no volume (30% below average)

Charts: Bloomberg


A Kink in LinkedIn's Chain

LinkedIn's first-quarter stumble was costly, but the professional social network should recover.

Cyprus's Recovery Path Can Avoid Greek Pitfalls

Cyprus's bailout was highly contentious. But two years on, the outlook is brightening.

Chevron profit drops but beats expectations on refining margins

(Reuters) - Oil and natural gas producer Chevron Corp reported a 43 percent drop in quarterly profit on Friday, though results beat analysts' expectations as cost cuts and robust refining margins helped offset the impact of tumbling crude prices.

Summary of Economic Releases this Week

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Earnings Summary for Today

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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