24Apr2015 Market Close: SP500 Sets New High On Low Volume, Investors Not Very Excited As Volume Was 'Normal'
Written by Gary
The SP500 squeaked past yesterday's high by 0.43 cents, again on very low volume and then fell to close at a new closing high. The only excitement for today's session was the volatility giving some traders room to trade.
By 4 pm the markets closed in the green, the $NDX up 1.33% and the $RUT down 0.3%.
Todays S&P 500 Chart
WTI oil is at 57.16 falling from morning highs of 57.87 (Chart Here), Brent has fallen to 65.30 from its high of 65.76 (Chart Here), and the U.S. Dollar lost ground now at 97.14, up from its high at 97.73 (Chart Here).
Our medium term indicators are leaning towards SELL portfolio of non-performers and the session market direction meter (for day traders) is 6 % bearish down from 21 % bearish during the morning. We remain mostly conservatively bullish, but with a bearish slant. I am very concerned any downtrend could get very aggressive in the short-term and any volatility may also promote sudden reversals that will only please the day traders. The SP500 MACD has turned flat, but remains above zero at +8.31. Watch the WTI oil prices as anything below $50 will be the first sign of a declining market in the works. Below $44 you had better put on your seat belt as the encroaching market roller coaster ride may be be very bumpy.
Having some cash on hand now is not a bad strategy as negative market changes are happening everyday, 99% of them are minor, it is that 1% I am worried about. Many investors are starting to take in some profits from 'high-fliers' as a precaution and to build a better cash base for the 'dips'.
As of now, I do see some leading indicators that are warning of a 'long-term' reversal within six months. I believe one is most likely to occur later in 2015, but any market fluctuations we see now are more of a internal market rectification than a bear market. If you are not worried, then at least be cautious. A good rule is that one cannot be prepared for a situation if you do not anticipate the possibility of that situation materializing.
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