Markets sea-sawing near the unchanged line, first opening in the green, then falling fractionally into the red and finally recovering into the green zone. The small caps are doing well at of 1% gains and the DOW remains in the green for now, but flat.
Afternoon appears to going, er, melting upwards.
Here is the current market situation from CNN Money
North and South American markets are broadly higher today with shares in Brazil leading the region. The Bovespa is up 1.92% while Mexico's IPC is up 1.43% and U.S.'s S&P 500 is up 0.20%.
$NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Dropping below 40%-35% signals serious continuing weakness and falling averages.
The recent unprecedented surge in oil imports has again prompted a review of things here. In a prior story, we wrote that the lack of capacity to process light sweet crude at refineries produced via shale plays could be playing a role in the stock build. As mentioned previously, refineries over the next 24 months are expected to add 700,000 B/D in capacity to handle this type of crude. In the meantime, we have noticed an unusual amount of crude being imported, possibly as a result of this imbalance in refinery capacity. Or could it be that a more sinister plot is afoot?
To quantify the scale of the issue, we turn to Cornerstone Analytics' work in uncovering the magnitude of the impact of imports on the rise in oil inventory stocks. We haven't seen this level of import imbalance period since 2013, as the chart below demonstrates via Cornerstone. In the past 6 months, the level of imports relative to the requirement or need by refineries has jumped not once but twice. The 1M B/D "gap" goes a long way in explaining the oil inventory stock build which has been 5MB-10MB per week.
If adjusted, the builds over the past 6 months without such imports would not exist at all or at the very least be greatly reduced. So is this occurring ...
(Reuters) - U.S. stocks opened higher on Friday as strong results from tech behemoths Google Inc, Amazon.com Inc and Microsoft Corp put the Nasdaq Composite on track to extend its ascent a day after surpassing a 15-year-old record.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. business investment spending plans fell for a seventh straight month in March, likely weighed down by a strong dollar and lower energy prices, suggesting the economy could struggle to strongly rebound from the first quarter's soft patch.
RIGA (Reuters) - Euro zone finance ministers delivered a stark warning to Greece on Friday that its leftist government will get no more aid until it agrees a complete economic reform plan, as Athens lurches closer to bankruptcy.
The headlines say the durable goods new orders improved reversing the weak data seen since November 2014. The entire gain this month is attributable to civilian aircraft - and the rest of the data is soft. The three month rolling averages are essentially the same as last month, and showing almost no year-over-year growth. Unfilled orders also are essentially unchanged.
U.S. business investment spending plans fell for a seventh straight month in March, likely weighed down by a strong dollar and lower energy prices, suggesting the economy could struggle to rebound from a soft patch hit at the start of the year.
Having missed expectations for 5 of the last 7 months, Durable Goods New Orders jumped 4% MoM in March - the biggest jump since the July Boeing aberration all driven by a 112% surge in defense Aircraft new orders. Not surprisingly the Department of Commerce tried to pull this trick off in late 2007 in a last gasp desperate attempt to mask the arrival of the US recession then.
Durable Goods New Orders (ex-Transports) fell 0.2% MoM (missing expectations of a 0.3% rise) for the biggest YoY drop since 2012, some -1/9%, and under the covers it is ugly - Capital Goods New Orders non-defense, ex-aircraft have now fallen for 7 straight months, missing expectatons dramatically (-0.5% vs +0.3% exp.). These numbers have never fallen for this long a period without a recession.
Durable Goods New Orders Ex-Transports... never fallen for this long witghout a recession...
and Capitakl Goods New Orders Ex Defense/Aircraft dropped yet another month...
Bloomberg's Richard Breslow, author of "Trader's Notes" is painfully accurate with his latest take on the "markets."
I'm Not Crazy, I'm Scared
The SPX flirted with all-time highs. The Nasdaq Index made 15 year highs; Chinese equities, and so many other equity indices are flying. Bonds sold off this week, but the German 10-year yield is still ~17bps, the U.S. 10-year yield unable to get beyond 2%, and Greek bonds had a two-day rally that would be truly impressive if it wasn't on volume that made it just an exercise moving wide bid/offer spreads, representing sentiment not trading.
The USD is selling off on the view that Greece is saved, the Fed is scared, and a "we can't sit with positions because it never works" mentality. The only really new thing the market needs to digest is that commodities may be nearing a bottom
Happy days seemingly, but there have been some very discordant and troubling comments from the creme de la creme of smart - and big - investors.
Over the last three days, we have reported that some of the most important investment voices in the world are more than a little scared about the ravenous appetite for risk playing out in the market, and the fact that they have been ignored is beyond unnerving. Central banks are driving all investment decisions, and what this implies is that they are in this trade so deeply that there is no obvious or practical exit.
Over the course of this week we have heard Larry Fink of Blackrock talking about the severe risks of investing in Europe; Bill Gross of Janus saying German bonds are the short trader's dream; Pimco warning that markets have not addressed the potential of a Fed tightening (I remember 1994); the incoming CEO of Allianz, that TWO trillion dollar asset manager, saying, "We see generally meager growth prospects, political dangers and risks of a st ...
(Reuters) - Biogen Inc posted lower-then-expected quarterly profit and revenue as its key oral multiple sclerosis (MS) drug Tecfidera showed signs of slowing growth, sending the company's shares down 3 percent in premarket trading on Friday.
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