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24Apr2015 Market Update: Very Volatile Morning, Afternoon Session Looks Promising

Written by Gary

Markets sea-sawing near the unchanged line, first opening in the green, then falling fractionally into the red and finally recovering into the green zone. The small caps are doing well at of 1% gains and the DOW remains in the green for now, but flat.

Afternoon appears to going, er, melting upwards.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

North and South American markets are broadly higher today with shares in Brazil leading the region. The Bovespa is up 1.92% while Mexico's IPC is up 1.43% and U.S.'s S&P 500 is up 0.20%.

Traders Corner - Health of the Market

Index Description Current Value
Investors.com Members Sentiment: % Bullish (the balance is Bearish) 57%
CNN's Fear & Greed Index Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear 61
Investors Intelligence sets the breath Above 50 bullish 62.5%
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold. +17.67
StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($NYA200R) $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Dropping below 40%-35% signals serious continuing weakness and falling averages. 64.51%
StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. 67.98%
StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction. 74.80%
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) ten year note index value 19.23
StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) As long as the consumer discretionary holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy 77.48
StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors 11,177

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Under Regulators' Scrutiny, Comcast and Time Warner End Deal

The $45 billion merger plan had raised concerns in the Justice Department and the Federal Communications Commission.

Wall St. Is Mixed, but Tech Stocks Shine

The technology-heavy Nasdaq composite index rose far more than the rest of the market.

A Plot To Hold Down Oil Prices Or Just A Happy Coincidence?

Submitted by Leonard Brecken via OilPrice.com,

The recent unprecedented surge in oil imports has again prompted a review of things here. In a prior story, we wrote that the lack of capacity to process light sweet crude at refineries produced via shale plays could be playing a role in the stock build. As mentioned previously, refineries over the next 24 months are expected to add 700,000 B/D in capacity to handle this type of crude. In the meantime, we have noticed an unusual amount of crude being imported, possibly as a result of this imbalance in refinery capacity. Or could it be that a more sinister plot is afoot?

To quantify the scale of the issue, we turn to Cornerstone Analytics' work in uncovering the magnitude of the impact of imports on the rise in oil inventory stocks. We haven't seen this level of import imbalance period since 2013, as the chart below demonstrates via Cornerstone. In the past 6 months, the level of imports relative to the requirement or need by refineries has jumped not once but twice. The 1M B/D "gap" goes a long way in explaining the oil inventory stock build which has been 5MB-10MB per week.

If adjusted, the builds over the past 6 months without such imports would not exist at all or at the very least be greatly reduced. So is this occurring ...

Wall Street rises on tech earnings after Nasdaq record

(Reuters) - U.S. stocks opened higher on Friday as strong results from tech behemoths Google Inc, Amazon.com Inc and Microsoft Corp put the Nasdaq Composite on track to extend its ascent a day after surpassing a 15-year-old record.

U.S. business investment plans fall for seventh straight month

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. business investment spending plans fell for a seventh straight month in March, likely weighed down by a strong dollar and lower energy prices, suggesting the economy could struggle to strongly rebound from the first quarter's soft patch.

Euro zone warns Greece no cash till full reform deal

RIGA (Reuters) - Euro zone finance ministers delivered a stark warning to Greece on Friday that its leftist government will get no more aid until it agrees a complete economic reform plan, as Athens lurches closer to bankruptcy.

Summarizing Today's Greek Negotiations In One T-Shirt

Dear German tourists: please be wary of blowback in Athens today, following the Troika, pardon Institutions' comments saying they are being "pushed toward hostility on Greece."

Source: @Gath___

Durable Goods Improved in March 2015? The Data Continues to Show Economic Softness.

Written by Steven Hansen

The headlines say the durable goods new orders improved reversing the weak data seen since November 2014. The entire gain this month is attributable to civilian aircraft - and the rest of the data is soft. The three month rolling averages are essentially the same as last month, and showing almost no year-over-year growth. Unfilled orders also are essentially unchanged.

Read more ...

U.S. Business Investment Plans Fall for Seventh Straight Month

U.S. business investment spending plans fell for a seventh straight month in March, likely weighed down by a strong dollar and lower energy prices, suggesting the economy could struggle to rebound from a soft patch hit at the start of the year.

Worst Drop In Core Durable Goods Since December 2012

Having missed expectations for 5 of the last 7 months, Durable Goods New Orders jumped 4% MoM in March - the biggest jump since the July Boeing aberration all driven by a 112% surge in defense Aircraft new orders. Not surprisingly the Department of Commerce tried to pull this trick off in late 2007 in a last gasp desperate attempt to mask the arrival of the US recession then.

Durable Goods New Orders (ex-Transports) fell 0.2% MoM (missing expectations of a 0.3% rise) for the biggest YoY drop since 2012, some -1/9%, and under the covers it is ugly - Capital Goods New Orders non-defense, ex-aircraft have now fallen for 7 straight months, missing expectatons dramatically (-0.5% vs +0.3% exp.). These numbers have never fallen for this long a period without a recession.

Durable Goods New Orders Ex-Transports... never fallen for this long witghout a recession...

and Capitakl Goods New Orders Ex Defense/Aircraft dropped yet another month...

'Smaller and simpler' mantra rings through banking boardrooms

LONDON (Reuters) - Deutsche Bank's expected move to sell much of its retail banking business will see it join a growing list of banks choosing to shrink and simplify to survive.

"I'm Not Crazy, I'm Scared" - Why For One Trader, This Time It Is Different

Bloomberg's Richard Breslow, author of "Trader's Notes" is painfully accurate with his latest take on the "markets."

I'm Not Crazy, I'm Scared

The SPX flirted with all-time highs. The Nasdaq Index made 15 year highs; Chinese equities, and so many other equity indices are flying. Bonds sold off this week, but the German 10-year yield is still ~17bps, the U.S. 10-year yield unable to get beyond 2%, and Greek bonds had a two-day rally that would be truly impressive if it wasn't on volume that made it just an exercise moving wide bid/offer spreads, representing sentiment not trading.

The USD is selling off on the view that Greece is saved, the Fed is scared, and a "we can't sit with positions because it never works" mentality. The only really new thing the market needs to digest is that commodities may be nearing a bottom

Happy days seemingly, but there have been some very discordant and troubling comments from the creme de la creme of smart - and big - investors.

Over the last three days, we have reported that some of the most important investment voices in the world are more than a little scared about the ravenous appetite for risk playing out in the market, and the fact that they have been ignored is beyond unnerving. Central banks are driving all investment decisions, and what this implies is that they are in this trade so deeply that there is no obvious or practical exit.

Over the course of this week we have heard Larry Fink of Blackrock talking about the severe risks of investing in Europe; Bill Gross of Janus saying German bonds are the short trader's dream; Pimco warning that markets have not addressed the potential of a Fed tightening (I remember 1994); the incoming CEO of Allianz, that TWO trillion dollar asset manager, saying, "We see generally meager growth prospects, political dangers and risks of a st ...

Equities at all-time high after Nasdaq record

LONDON (Reuters) - Global equity markets rode to new all-time highs on Friday, with positive corporate updates in Europe and a post-dotcom-boom peak for the U.S. Nasdaq stoking investor optimism.

Biogen quarter-one results disappoint Wall Street as Tecfidera sales slow

(Reuters) - Biogen Inc posted lower-then-expected quarterly profit and revenue as its key oral multiple sclerosis (MS) drug Tecfidera showed signs of slowing growth, sending the company's shares down 3 percent in premarket trading on Friday.

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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