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14Apr2015 Market Update:

Written by Gary

After a brief spike of 'sheeples' pre-orders moving the markets up fractionally (Bull Trap), the averages have moved solidly down into negative territory which may or may not be the lows for the day. Traders love it and investors loath the volatility, but that is what is to be expected for now. The BTFDers are starting to buy in as they think this is the low for the day.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

North and South American markets are lower today with shares in Brazil off the most. The Bovespa is down 0.86% while Mexico's IPC is off 0.30% and U.S.'s S&P 500 is lower by 0.21%.

Traders Corner - Health of the Market

Index Description Current Value
Investors.com Members Sentiment: % Bullish (the balance is Bearish) 57%
CNN's Fear & Greed Index Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear 60
Investors Intelligence sets the breath Above 50 bullish 60.9%
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold. +5.45
StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($NYA200R) $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Dropping below 40%-35% signals serious continuing weakness and falling averages. 60.94%
StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. 66.67%
StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction. 72.40%
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) ten year note index value 18.69
StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) As long as the consumer discretionary holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy 75.82
StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors 11,082

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

JPMorgan profit rises as fixed-income trading rebounds

(Reuters) - JPMorgan Chase & Co, the biggest U.S. bank by assets, reported a better-than-expected rise in first-quarter profit, with a rebound in bond trading bolstering Chief Executive Jamie Dimon's argument that size and diversification are advantages.

Wall St. edges up after JPMorgan, J&J results

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rose modestly on Tuesday as investors digested the initial major earnings of the first-quarter reporting season, which showed some weakness despite companies topping lowered expectations.

J.C. Penney executive inadvertently discloses same-store sales

(Reuters) - J.C. Penney Inc said a senior executive inadvertently disclosed information on its same-store sales in the first quarter so far to an analyst.

Market Open Buying-Panic Treja-Vu

Fool me three times...

and a reminder of what happened yesterday...

Charts: Bloomberg

Global investors stick to stocks for now but bubble fear mounts

LONDON (Reuters) - International investors are getting increasingly anxious that stock markets may be due a downward lurch with more of them rating equities as "overvalued" than at any time since 2000, a global survey said on Tuesday.

Peripheral EU Bond Risk Surges As Grexit Contagion Spreads

Despite all the money-printing, bond-buying, ponzi-scheming; the looming reality of a possible Greek default is spreading rapidly across the rest of peripheral European bonds. Greek 3Y bond yields are up 167bps, breaking over 23% today. The last week has seen Italian, Portuguese, and Spanish bond risk rise 12-16bps - a dramatic move off such low Q€-driven bases. Already there is chatter that Spain's resurgent Podemos party will look to negotiate restructuring their debt, which merely confirms the fact that for all the bluster, EU leaders are scared stiff of the implications of 'allowing' Greece to exit...

Greek bonds are dumping...

And peripheral European bond risk is contagion-ing...

Charts: Bloomberg

Detroit, Stockton bankruptcies may flag wider problems: Fed's Dudley

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The municipal bankruptcies in Detroit and Stockton, California, may foretell more widespread problems in the United States than is implied by current bond ratings, a top Federal Reserve official said on Monday.

Retail sales rebound, post largest gain in a year

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. retail sales rose in March for the first time since late last year as consumers stepped up purchases of automobiles and other goods, suggesting a sharp slowdown in economic growth in the first quarter was temporary.

Small Business Optimism Plunges To 9-Month Lows As Hiring Plans Tumble

Remember back at the turn of the year when NFIB Small Business Optimism was surging and the mainstream media proclaimed that jobs were coming back thanks to small business, and Obama stated "the shadow of crisis is behind us." Well, if March's Small Business Optimism index is to be believed... it's not. At 95.2 (missing expectations for the 3rd month in a row), this is the least optimistic small businesses have been in 9 months. Worse still, all those jobs that were going to be created by this optimism.. Hiring Plans dropped to 6-month lows.

Optimism fading fast...

And along with it, Hiring Plans...

Charts: Bloomberg

Small business confidence falls; labor indicators weak

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Small business confidence fell in March as hiring and capital spending plans weakened, adding to signs that economic growth braked sharply in the first quarter.

Wells Fargo Profit Beats as Mortgage Banking Recovers

The largest U.S. mortgage lender reported a 2.6 percent fall in quarterly profit on Tuesday as the bank set aside more money to cover bad loans.

March 2015 Overall Producer Prices Continue in Deflation Year-over-Year

Written by Steven Hansen

The Producer Price Index inflation continued its year-over-year deflation. The intermediate processing continues to show a large deflation in the supply chain.

I.M.F. Warns of Uneven Economic Growth

Despite improvements in the United States and Europe, the International Monetary Fund pointed to emerging economies, high levels of debt and fragile banks as possible threats.

Bits Blog: Twilio Adds Video to Its Offerings for Software Developers

A company that makes it possible to add voice or text communications to any application will include video capabilities in its package.

Japan PM adviser Hamada says dollar at Y120 acceptable

TOKYO (Reuters) - The yen is fairly valued around current levels, a key economic adviser to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said on Tuesday, a day after comments he made were taken to mean the yen was too weak.

JPMorgan Chase Profit Rises 12% on Strong Trading

The bank experienced rebounds in some of the big businesses that had been lagging and fueling criticism of the company.

Citi seeking to sell retail FX arm: source

LONDON (Reuters) - Citigroup Inc is seeking a buyer for its retail forex brokerage CitiFX Pro as part of efforts to streamline the banking world's biggest currency trading operation, a source familiar with the situation told Reuters on Tuesday.

Retail Sales Miss For 4th Month In A Row: First Time Since Lehman

After 3 months of missed expectations and the first consecutive drop in retail sales since Lehman, retail sales rose 0.9% in March (missing expectations of +1.1%), following a revised 0.5% drop in February. While the 0.9% rise is the biggest since March last year, this is now the worst streak of missed expectations in retail sales since 2008/9. Ex-Autos, retail sales also mised expectations (rising just 0.4% vs 0.7% exp).

This is the worst March YoY growth in retail sales (control group) since 2009...

The breakdown shows what we already know: courtesy of soaring non-revolving loans, auto sales spiked in March...

... however offset by modest increases in other category, with electronics, food and online sales posting a decline. Too warm outside to spend money on Amazon.com?

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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