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08Apr2015 Market Update: Averages Still In The Green, But Trending Down Off Morning Highs, Oils Mostly Trading Sideways And The U.S. Dollar Is Trending Upwards Ahead Of The FMOC Minutes

Written by Gary

The averages rose fractionally from the opening bell on relatively heavy volume amid heavy speculation on what the FMOC minutes might revel. The leading contender is that the minutes will be very 'Hawkish" and move the markets lower.

By 10 am the averages were moving off their morning highs trending down on falling volume. The oils are mostly trading sideways with a hint of weakness while the U.S. Dollar has reversed course and is trending upwards again.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

North and South American markets are broadly higher today with shares in Brazil leading the region. The Bovespa is up 1.17% while Mexico's IPC is up 0.46% and U.S.'s S&P 500 is up 0.42%.

When you make a call on inclusive information as I did this morning, expect to be correct 50% of the time. I did not expect the averages to climb out of the starting box and rise a half percentage point - such is this casino market. (. . . and the help of the HFT algo computers)

Traders Corner - Health of the Market

Index Description Current Value
Investors.com Members Sentiment: % Bullish (the balance is Bearish) 57%
CNN's Fear & Greed Index Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear 48
Investors Intelligence sets the breath Above 50 bullish 59.8%
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold. +18.44
StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($NYA200R) $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Dropping below 40%-35% signals serious continuing weakness and falling averages. 59.64%
StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. 65.54%
StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction. 71.20%
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) ten year note index value 18.99
StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) As long as the consumer discretionary holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy 76.20
StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors 11,068

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Algos Unleash Another Marketwide Stop Hunt To Start The Day

S.S.D.D...

The collapse in revolving credit yesterday appears to have been long forgotten... and the plunge in German factory orders... Just luck the market is broken.

Bonds don't seem as ebulient as all the "traders" in stocks...

Who could have seen that coming?

Almost time for the market-wide HFT stop hunt

zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 8, 2015

Wall St. little changed ahead of Fed minutes

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks were little changed at the open on Wednesday, with traders eyeing a $70 billion mega-deal in the energy space and ahead of minutes from the most recent meeting of the Federal Reserve's policy-setting committee.

Pawn to cushion payday lenders from regulatory blow

(Reuters) - Payday lenders that have substantial pawn operations are better positioned to absorb the blow from proposed U.S. regulations aimed at cracking down on an industry that has been criticized for lumbering borrowers with debt they cannot repay.

Powell, citing crisis damage, says rate hikes to proceed gradually after liftoff

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The effects of the financial crisis are making it hard for the Federal Reserve to measure the level of slack in the U.S. economy, so upcoming rate hikes should proceed at a slow pace as the central bank feels its way back to normal, Fed governor Jerome Powell said on Wednesday.

Neofeudalism 101: Strip-Mining The Upper Middle Class

Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog,

This Neofeudal structure is unstable by its very nature.

I have often examined the Neofeudalist structure of the U.S. economic hierarchy, and the many social and financial fault lines running through this creaking structure. For example: America's Nine Classes: The New Class Hierarchy (April 29, 2014) Are You an Elitist? Class Warfare and the New Nobility (April 26, 2014) Protecting Elites and the Clerisy Class That Serves Them (September 26, 2014) Bifurcation Nation (June 24, 2013) The Three-and-a-Half Class Society (October 22, 2012) Tyranny of the Majority, Corporate Welfare and Complicity (April 9, 2010) Today I'd like to examine the neofeudal strip-mining of the class that pays most of the taxes. ...

U.S. office space rent rises at fastest clip in a decade: report

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stepped-up business hiring pushed the rental price of U.S. office space up 3.1 percent in the first quarter, the highest quarterly gain in a decade, as demand for commercial real estate accelerated, according to Jones Lang LaSalle Inc .

February 2015 Consumer Credit Rate of Growth Essentially Unchanged. Ratio of Total Consumer Loans Outstanding to Consumer Spending Remains Near Historic Highs

Written by Steven Hansen

Consumer credit growth has been trending down since July - but the growth rate was statisically unchanged this month based on the unadjusted data. Although student loan growth rate continues to decelerate - removal of student credit shows some growth in consumer credit. Still, consumer credit annual growth rate is still double the GDP annual growth rate - and repayment of consumer debt is taking a larger share of disposable income. The general situation continues to show consumers are "tapped out".

Apple faces local battles as its prepares global payments push

FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Apple has made mobile payments look easy, after a decade of mostly failed experiments by banks, telecom operators and retailers to woo consumers away from cards and cash.

BMW recalls 53,000 X3s in China on risk of short circuit

BEIJING/FRANKFURT (Reuters) - BMW AG will recall 53,317 imported X3 models in China because a fault in the engine wiring harness and fuel supply system could cause the vehicles to short circuit, the country's top safety regulator said Wednesday.

Shell challenges Exxon dominance with $70 billion bid for BG

LONDON (Reuters) - Royal Dutch Shell agreed to buy smaller rival BG Group for 47 billion pounds ($70.2 billion) in the first major energy industry merger in more than a decade, closing the gap on market leader U.S. ExxonMobil after a plunge in prices.

Putin And Tsipras Are Meeting: Here Are The Main Highlights

While Germany has pre-emptively, and somewhat defensively, come out proclaiming Russian aid to Greece as 'no big deal' - a "routine event" -

As Bloomberg reports, the German government suggests Russia-Greece loan would be a "routine Event."

One country borrowing from another "is nothing special at all," German Finance Ministry spokeswoman Friederike von Tiesenhausen says when asked whether Greece accepting loans from Russia would be in line with European policy. "That's the international financial system."

Declines to comment specifically on possibility of Russian loans to Greece, says that's "hypothetical" and "as far as I know not on the agenda" of Tsipras visit to Moscow

We suspect the signal that it would send would not be entirely great for the EU (and Obama's) 'Russia is evil' meme.

Nonetheless, as Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras meets Russian President Vladimir Putin today, topics for discussion vary from lifting sanctions (bilaterally) or bankrolling a bailout to gas discount from Gazprom. Here's a summary... (via RT),

The new 40-year-old leader of one of the world's most indebted countries with meet with Putin on Wednesday, just one day before the country is due to repay €463.1 million to the International Monetary Fund. The Greek Prime Minister arrives in Moscow on Tuesday.

Is Russia going to bail out Greece?

Rumors have been abuzz that Athens and Moscow are plotting a secret bailout ever since t ...

Royal Dutch Shell to Buy BG Group for Nearly $70 Billion

The BG Group is a major player in liquefied natural gas, and if the deal is completed, the sale would be a rare bright spot for energy deal makers.

Putin Meets With Alexis Tsipras of Greece, Raising Eyebrows in Europe

The Russian president said that the visit by the Greek prime minister "could not have come at a better time."

Oil & gas mega-merger keeps global stocks fizzing

LONDON (Reuters) - Global stocks remained upbeat on Wednesday as a $70 billion mega-deal in the European oil and gas sector stoked the merger and acquisition fever that has gripped investors this week.

Oil falls on U.S. stock build, record Saudi output

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices fell towards $58 a barrel on Wednesday as industry data showed a larger-than-expected weekly increase in U.S. stockpiles and as Saudi Arabia reported record output in March.

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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