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24Mar2015 Market Update: Markets Little Changed Tuesday, Oil Trending Down As US Dollar Trends Up

Written by Gary

Stocks were little changed on Wall Street on Tuesday, with slight moves in tight lock step with currency variations as traders focused on the dollar's strength and its possible effect on corporate earnings. Brent crude oil fell on Tuesday as the dollar regained its footing against the euro and fears of global oversupply persisted, while U.S. crude's losses were limited by strong domestic economic data.


Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

North and South American markets are mixed. The IPC is higher by 0.35%, while Brazil's Bovespa is off 0.59%. Shares in U.S. are unchanged with the S&P 500 at 2,104.55.

Traders Corner - Health of the Market

Index Description Current Value
Investors.com Members Sentiment: % Bullish (the balance is Bearish) 64
CNN's Fear & Greed Index Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear 48
Investors Intelligence sets the breath Above 50 bullish 58.8
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold. +25.00
StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($NYA200R) $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Dropping below 40%-35% signals serious continuing weakness and falling averages. 59.87%
StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. 62.55
StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction. 72.20
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) ten year note index value 19.08
StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) As long as the consumer discretionary holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy 76.70
StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors 11,072

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Bits Blog: Slack Said to Be in Talks to Raise Money at More Than $2 Billion Valuation

The talks come just four months after Slack, which is run by the entrepreneur Stewart Butterfield, raised $120 million at a valuation of more than $1 billion.

Brent slides, U.S. crude flat on resilient dollar

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Brent crude oil fell on Tuesday as the dollar regained its footing against the euro and fears of global oversupply persisted, while U.S. crude's losses were limited by strong domestic economic data.

Wall St. Rises as Investors Assess Corporate Earnings

The consumer price index rose for the first time in four months, the Labor Department said.

Euro zone and U.S. manufacturing expand, China struggles

LONDON/NEW YORK (Reuters) - Euro zone businesses ramped up activity in March as the European Central Bank started printing money to spur economic growth, while a slowdown among Chinese factories fueled expectations of more monetary stimulus.

Why Wall Streeters Defecting to Silicon Valley Is Good News for the Economy

If you think of finance as a back office function, it's easier to see why some of the best and brightest young people are making moves.

Fed Bubble Spotter Joins Whale Hunter At Hedge Fund

The man who once dared to suggest to his colleagues at the Fed that waiting until there's "decisive proof" of a bubble might be a bad policy because by then it will be too late to fix things resulting in "an implicit policy of inaction," and who subsequently resigned from his position amongst one group of PhDs to return to work with another, is taking his talents to BlueMountain Capital where he'll advise Andrew Feldstein (the man who once harpooned a certain British whale) on how inept the government is when it comes to regulating the industry, among other fun topics.

Here's more via WSJ:

Jeremy Stein signed up as a paid consultant to BlueMountain Capital Management, the more than $20 billion New York hedge-fund firm, the firm confirmed.

Mr. Stein, 54, made a quick impact in his two years as a Fed governor, warning of potential asset bubbles from the central banks' sustained post-crisis stimulus programs. That set him apart from his colleagues who felt that financial stability concerns were far from the top priority in a sluggish economic environment. He resigned in May 2014.

More recently, he has said he is bullish on the U.S. economy, and relatively unsure on whether the Fed will raise rates in June.

At BlueMountain, Mr. Stein will advise on macro policies, financial regulation and risk management, among other issues.

And ...

Google hires Morgan Stanley's Porat as CFO

(Reuters) - Morgan Stanley Chief Financial Officer Ruth Porat is leaving the bank to become Google Inc's CFO, the latest Wall Street executive to move to Silicon Valley, where fortunes can be built fast but businesses can also become irrelevant overnight.

Global demand to help oil prices despite U.S. glut-senior Gulf OPEC delegate

RIYADH (Reuters) - Stronger-than-expected global oil demand should help support crude prices at around $55-$60 a barrel in the next two months despite some signs of a growing glut in the United States,†a senior Gulf OPEC delegate told Reuters on Tuesday.

First Images Of Germanwings Crash Debris Emerge; White House Says "No Indication Of Terrorism"

While the White House, seemingly an expert in determining airplane crashes causes within hours if not minutes of the accident (see flight MH-17) has already opined on the tragic crash of the Lufthansa Germanwings airplane:

WHITE HOUSE: NO INDICATION OF TERRORISM IN AIRPLANE CRASH

This will hardly be comfort to the families of the 148 people who lost their lives the crash which took place in the south Franch alps, and where the first images of the debris have just been released, via Airlive.net

Further evidence that the airplane crash was not a midair disintegration is that while the vertical airspeed was susbtantial, it wasn't freefall, and it took the airplane about 10 minutes to drop from a height of 11.5 to its final resting place some 2 kilometers high in the alps (via Zeit).

And here are all the latest crash developments from AP:

A local lawmaker says the debris from the plane crash in the French Alps th ...

Fed's Bullard says zero U.S. rates no longer appropriate

LONDON (Reuters) - Federal Reserve policymaker James Bullard said on Tuesday that zero percent interest rates were no longing appropriate in the United States, and that a rate hike in the summer would still leave policy extremely accommodative.

Orwell & Kafka Do America: How The Government Steals Your Money - "Legally," Of Course

Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog,

Due process and rule of law have been replaced with "legalized" looting by government in America.

Did you know that the government of Iran steals your cash if they find more than loose change in your car? They don't arrest you for any crime, for the simple reason you didn't commit any crime; but it isn't about crime and punishment--it's about"legalizing" theft by the state. So the government toadies don't charge you with a crime or arrest you--they just steal your money.
Pity the poor Iranian people--clearly, there is no rule of law to protect them from their predatory, rapacious, fake-democracy, quasi-totalitarian government. Did you also know that if you deposit too much money in modest sums, the government of Iran steals all your deposits? They will claim--oh, the twisted logic of Orwellian, repressive governments--that you are obviously a drug dealer who is avoiding laws that require banks to report large deposits to the government. Once again, you won't be charged with a crime--in true Orwellian fashion the suspicion that you may have committed a crime is sufficient reason to steal your cash. Pity the poor Iranian people, living in such a banana-republic kleptocracy. Did you also know that if you are caught with any drug paraphernalia in your vehicle, the government of Iran steals your vehicle? The crime isn't a drug crime--it's a property crime: what are you doing with the go ...

Wall Street little changed; Google boosts Nasdaq

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks were little changed on Wall Street on Tuesday, with slight moves in tight lock step with currency variations as traders focused on the dollar's strength and its possible effect on corporate earnings.

U.S. consumer inflation firming; new home sales at seven-year high

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. consumer prices rebounded in February as gasoline prices rose for the first time since June, and there were also signs of an uptick in underlying inflation pressures, keeping the Federal Reserve on course to raise interest rates this year.

Lifestyles Of The Not So Austere & Socialist: Island Villa Edition

Two weeks ago Twitter got a gift when Yanis Varoufakis posed for a Paris Match photo shoot which depicted the Greek FinMin living a not-very-austere looking lifestyle. While the pictures didn't show Varoufakis being chauffeured around in any Rolls Royces, they did include one shot of what appeared to be a rather ostentatious picnic (with the Acropolis in the background) that contrasted starkly with the plight of the large number of Greeks who now have difficulty scraping together meals. It also came at a time when the government was actively considering borrowing money from public pension funds to make debt payments to the IMF and the ECB. At the time, we said the following:

As the Greek people live in perpetual fear of financial ruin and are subjected, on a near hourly basis, to rumors about just what kind of humiliation they may be forced to endure next in order to insure that Christine Lagarde gets the money she needs to prop up Ukraine for another couple of months, Yanis Varoufakis isn't about to roll over and allow his people to drown in despair. On the contrary, the finance minister apparently believes the best way to restore the faith is to show the Greek people just how good life could be.

One possibly fake middle finger kerfluffle and exactly no progress with European creditors later, we discover that Varoufakis has a vacation villa that he's willing to rent for the bargain price of just €5,000/week. For those who are interested, here's an idea of what you'll get for your money.

You can enjoy a dip in this very austere pool…

Exclusive: Greece to run out of cash by April 20 without fresh aid-source

(Reuters) - Greece will run out of money by April 20 unless it receives fresh aid from creditors, a source familiar with the familiar with the matter told Reuters on Tuesday.

March 2015 Chemical Activity Barometer Flat - Again Blamed on the Weather

from the American Chemistry Council

The Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB), was flat in March following a 0.3 percent and 0.1 percent upward revision in January and February, respectively. Data is measured on a measured on a three-month moving average (3MMA). Accounting for adjustments, the CAB remains up 3.0 percent over this time last year, a slight deceleration over prior year-over-year growth.

Google Hires Finance Chief Ruth Porat From Morgan Stanley

Ms. Porat, who has been Morgan Stanley's chief financial officer since 2010, will become one of the most powerful women in Silicon Valley.

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey Shows Contraction in March 2015

Of the three regional Federal Reserve surveys released to date, two show manufacturing expanding weakly and now the Richmond survey shows contraction. The market expected this survey index at -4 to +5 (consensus 2.0) versus the -8 actual [note that values above zero represent expansion].

Read more ...

New Home Sales Data Goes Full Retard With Report Frozen Northeast Saw 153% Surge

This is how ridiculous government data has become: in the same month in which both Housing Starts and Existing Home sales significantly missed expectations, misses which were promptly blamed on the weather, the Census Bureau moments ago released a stunner of a New Home Sales number, which supposedly rose from an upward revised 500K to 539K, smashing expectations of 481K, a 25% spike from a year ago and up 7.8% from January, which incidentally is also the highest number since February 2008, even as the median home price dropped to the lowest since September.

And a close-up on the divergence...

Thanks to the biggest beat since 2005...

All of this would be great... if it was remotely credible. It isn't, for three reasons.

First, as Census always admits in the fine print, the 90% confidence interval on the 7.8% increas is +/- 15.2%

HSBC Not Closing Gold Vaults â€" Safety Deposit Boxes of Clients? Being Closed

HSBC Not Closing Gold Vaults â€" Safety Deposit Boxes of Clients‏ Being Closed

- Incorrect rumors abound around blogosphere that HSBC is rapidly and quietly closing gold vaults
- HSBC are in fact closing down their safety deposit box facilities in vaults in branches
- Banks internationally closing boxes as not profitable and move to "cashless society"
- Incorrect speculation that HSBC move forcing gold clients to sell bullion
- Speculation understandable given poor communications from HSBC and manipulation of precious metal markets
- Salutary lesson to all â€" media and blogosphere â€" to be more rigorous
- Underlines vital importance of owning gold in allocated manner outside financial system

An incorrect rumor that HSBC is rapidly and quietly closing gold vaults where clients gold bullion was stored and gold in the GLD ETF is stored has been swirling around the internet.

Safety Deposit Boxes in Sentinel Vaults in Dublin, Ireland

Safety Deposit Boxes in Sentinel Vaults in Dublin, Ireland

After conversations with key players in the industry including a bullion dealer who used the safety deposit boxes for storage and delivery to clients, we can now confidently say that the speculation was incorrect.

What HSBC is actually doing is closing its safety deposit box facilities some of which are in vaults and strong rooms in branches. The vaults are not specialist gold vaults rather standard vaults or strong rooms which contain safety deposit boxes. These safety deposit boxes hold all sorts of valuables â€" from legal documents, to family heirlooms, to art w ...

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey Collapses To 2-Year Lows

Despite Markit's PMI exuberance, it appears the awesomeness did not reach Richmond. Printing at a disastrous -8, against expectations of +3, Richmond Fed is the lowest since January 2013. The last 5 months have seen the index drop at its fastest rate since Lehman.

Not awesome...

Not awesome-er...

Charts: Bloomberg

U.S. new home sales hit seven-year high in February

New U.S. single-family home sales surged in February to their highest level in seven years despite harsh winter weather, in a hopeful sign for the housing market.

US Manufacturing PMI 'Survey' Defies Every Hard Data Print In Last 7 Weeks, Jumps To 5-Month Highs

Markit just issued the results of their Manufacturing PMI survey... and it shows everything is awesome again. Printing at 55.3 - the highest since October 2014 - it is utterly incredulous that this represents any reality as US macro data has completely collapsed in the last 2 months. Exports are down for the first time since November, but Markit is very excited, pitching deflation as good and careful to not be too sanguine about the rise for fear of sparking some Fed action...

Spot The Odd One Out...

As Markit explains,

"While economic growth looks set to disappoint again in the first quarter, with GDP set to rise by a rate perhaps slightly below the 2.2% expansion seen in the fourth quarter of last year, the upturn in order books in particular gives some reassurance that the pace of economic growth is likely to pick up as we move towards the summer.

But the punchline is...

"However, the rate of expansion in manufacturing clearly remains well below the peaks seen last year, which is largely the result of exporters struggling in the face of a strong dollar. The March survey showed export ...

U.S. factory activity inches up in March - Markit

Growth in the U.S. manufacturing sector edged higher in March, with factory activity showing the best gain since October, according to an industry report released Tuesday.

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