Markets ended down today nearly 2% as the DOW is off 333 at the close on moderate to heavy volume. Indicators show the next down session will be the last in 5 and the markets may go upwards again as they have done in the past. Failing this SWAG look for more down side to coincide with falling oil.
The Ukraine situation is heating up with the U.S. Sending 100 tanks and considering more. The U.S. Dollar rose to a new high of 98.65 which some claim was instrumental to the markets collapse today.
Todays S&P 500 Chart
Our medium term indicators are leaning towards Hold portfolio of non-performers and the session market direction meter (for day traders) is 54 % bearish. We remain mostly conservatively bullish, but with a bearish slant. I am very concerned any downtrend could get very aggressive in the short-term and any volatility may also promote sudden reversals that will only please the day traders.
$NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Dropping below 40%-35% signals serious continuing weakness and falling averages.
(Reuters) - Happy anniversary, Nasdaq. It has been 15 years since the dot.com bubble peaked on March 10, 2000, and the Nasdaq composite index hit its lifetime intraday high of 5,132. Back then many of us were watching reality TV shows like "Survivor" and bidding up stocks of companies that had no earnings.
No lesser trustworthy character than Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland explained this morning that the US can "confirm" new Russian weapons delivery to Ukraine and that they "can tell" when Russia sends in new weapons (though offering no explanation of this statement). This comment to the Senate Committee comes a day after the US delivered 'lethal aid' to Latvia - 120 armored units (including tanks) - with US Army General John O'Conner who witnessed the tanks arriving on Latvian soil said, "Freedom must be fought for, freedom must be defended." And finally, one more shot in the eye of the germans, deputy under-secretary of Defense Brian McKeon said the US is "actively considering more weapons for Ukraine," seemingly implying they alreadt sent some?
The rhetoric is heating up
*ASSISTANT SEC. OF STATE NULAND SPEAKS BEFORE SENATE COMMITTEE
*U.S. CAN CONFIRM NEW RUSSIAN WEAPONS DELIVERY TO UKRAINE:NULAND
*NULAND SAYS U.S. CAN TELL IF RUSSIA SENDS IN NEW WEAPONS
*NULAND SAYS UKRAINE LEADERS KNOW IN RACE TO REFORM GOVERNMENT
*DEPUTY UNDER SECRETARY OF DEFENSE BRIAN MCKEON SPEAKS TO SENATE
*U.S. 'ACTIVELY' CONSIDERING MORE WEAPONS FOR UKRAINE: MCKEON
And this comes a day after the US delivered lethal aid to Latvia...
As RT reports,
Latvia has confirmed more than 120 armored units, including tanks, have been delivered by the US. According to the Latvian Ministry of Defense, these include M1A2 Abrams tanks and ...
In the past five years, despite consecutive "bailout programs," or maybe because of them, the terms "last chance," "Grexit," "ultimatum" and "destruction" have been doing the rounds with exhausting regularity in Greek and international headlines.
To begin with, they are exhausting our souls. They are also exhausting the country's economy, which could not have withstood such a barrage of negativity even if it had been among the strongest in Europe. And that it is not has been acknowledged even by the most fervent champions of the famous "success story" which left Greece unable to meet its current obligations.
Whether these proclamations of doom are based on reality are blown out of proportion or invented is neither here not there because their effect remains the same â€" corrosive. And, unfortunately or fortunately, we cannot all deal with the fear being cultivated in the same way as Former Finance Minister Gikas Hardouvelis, who admitted to spiriting money out of Greece because he was scared. The overwhelming majority of Greeks cannot even dream of the kind of income he made.
The result is that gradually, from one scare to another, many â€" and especially those who have nothing left to lose â€" have given up looking for defenses, whether individual or collective, and have given in to the sin of sloth. They are not lazy or indifferent but experiencing emotional apathy. It has become a certainty that our destruction is much worse than a self-fulfilling prophecy: It has been orchestrated from outside. Either to punish the "lazy Greeks" or to warn others being tempted in ...
WASHINGTON (AP) — Quitting your job — all but unheard of during and after the Great Recession — is becoming more common again. That could mean pay raises are coming for more Americans. The trend has already emerged in the restaurant and retail industries, where quits and pay are rising faster than in the overall economy. Workers in those industries appear to be taking advantage of rising consumer demand to seek better pay elsewhere. Workers who quit typically do so to take higher-paying jobs.
That's why rising numbers of quits typically signal confidence in the economy and the job market. As the trend takes hold, employers are often forced to offer higher pay to hold on to their staffers or attract new ones. The Labor Department said Tuesday that the number of people who quit jobs rose 3 percent from December to January to 2.8 million — the most in more than six years. Quits have jumped 17 percent over the past 12 months.
A quick reminder of what the biggest debt bubble currently facing America's population is.
Why is this a problem? Because as the TBAC revealed a few months back, the default risk from the $1 trillions in student loans is several orders of magnitude above the 9% student loans which the Fed has revealed as currently "in default", as one has to add those 12% of loans in deferment and 11% in forbearance to the entire risk pool. In short: a third of all student loans are likely to end up unrepaid!
And, the punchline: according to the TBAC's worst case scenario of the future of student debt, this gargantuan load will triple over the next decade, to as much as $3.3 trillion by 2024.
(Reuters) - KKR & Co LP is in advanced talks to acquire Air Medical Group Holdings Inc in a deal that could value the U.S. helicopter ambulance company at around $2 billion, including debt, according to people familiar with the matter.
This was not supposed to happen... Once again it appears that front-running the central banks hints and selling the actions is the new normal as (just as occurred in the period around the Qâ‚¬ announcement), despite pushging higher last week, inflation expectations have tumbled lower since Draghi unleashed the trillion-euro bazooka...
We're gonna need a bigger bazooka - and some ETFs to buy...
Just as in the case of oil currently, the problem with gold (and countless other commodities) trading where it does, is that as we have shown repeatedly on previous occasions, it is at or below the marginal production cost of various gold producers.
And with miners losing money on every incremental ounce (or barrell) they pull out of the ground, there is only so much capital they can burn before they have not choice but to file for bankruptcy. Which is precisely what happened to Allied Nevada Gold, the operator of the gaming state's Hycroft mine, which earlier today filed for bankruptcy in Delaware.
The company blamed its deteriorating financial condition on the drop in gold and silver prices in recent years, an overleveraged capital structure, delays in a key expansion project, and currency swap exposure.
Yes, this is that Allied Nevada whose stock price traded as high as $45 when gold hit its all time high of over $1,900 hours before the SNB imposed its first, and now failed, currency floor which translated into a market cap of just about $4.5 billion.
It was trading at under a $1, and since the company is now bankrupt, the equity is most likely worthless as the creditors take over the equity.
The company, incorporated in Delaware in 2006, owns more than 50 Nevada properties acquired in a merger, as well as interests in what it calls some of state's " ...
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. wholesale inventories unexpectedly rose in January as sales recorded their biggest decline since 2009, lifting the number of months it would take to clear warehouses to its highest level in more than 5-1/2 years.
On Sunday, we noted that the economics of the floating storage play could spell further declines for crude prices. With a global stock increase that's some 3 times larger than that which occurred during the last period of oversupply, expect cheap, on-land storage to prove inadequate necessitating the use of VLCCs. According to Soc Gen, determining how far the front end of the curve would have to fall in order for traders to arbitrage the difference between buying and storing physical oil and selling paper forward is a good indicator for where prices may find a floor:
...the bank is looking for the front end of the curve to fall until the contango is wide enough to make the floating storage play enticing.
The example Soc Gen uses shows that Brent needs to see ~$49 before the trade is sufficiently profitable.
The takeaway, we noted, is that storage availability and contango should be taken into account when considering the future direction of oil prices. With production still climbing despite the decline in rig count, it seems supply may, in short order, outstrip storage capacity for as the following two charts show, crude storage capacity in the US is now at 60% and is set to be completely exhausted by June:
Kicking off the weekly Treasury issuance was today's 3 Year auction which was another very strong auction, with the High Yield of 1.104%, despite being the highest since April 2011, pricing 1.1 bps inside of the When Issued at 1.115% at 1 pm. The Bid to Cover of 3.33 was right on top of the TTM average, and just a fraction below the 3.345 in January.
But the real story was in the internals, which again saw subdued Directs interest, who took down 8% of the final allotment, it was the Indirects (i.e., foreign central banks) which once again loaded up, taking down 51.4% of the auction, which was also the highest Indirect takedown since March 2010. This meant dealers were left with 40.5% of the issue, weill below the TTM average of 47%, which is understandable since in the lack of POMO, dealers can no longer "flip that bond" right back to the Fed in the next POMO in a few days.
Altogether a very strong auction, and certainly another confirmation that nobody is concerned about a surge in short-term rates any time soon.
On Friday we enthusiastically pointed out that in February, the US economy added nearly 60,000 new waiters and bartenders, the largest increase since August 2013, in what is obviously a sure sign that US economic growth has finally reached "escape velocity" (nevermind that real GDP growth is tracking around 1.2%). We also noted that even as the unemployment rate ticks lower, the number of Americans not in the labor force just hit a fresh high of nearly 93,000,000 while the labor force participation rate sits at a nearly four decade low. Finally, we thought it worth mentioning that February's auto sales numbers and the rising rate of repeat foreclosures in January suggest that perhaps autos and housing aren't doing as well as the media would have you believe.
It is against this backdrop that we present the following, which should serve as further evidence of the underlying strength in the US economy...
Volunteers of America, which has offices at LaGuardia and JFK, counted a monthly average of 45 chronic homeless people at LaGuardia in 2014, an 80 percent increase over the average mo ...
This video shows the deconstruction of the data reviewed here yesterday. http://www.skepticalscience.com continues to be the premier resource for climate denial debunkings online. SkS provides discussions of, and often, links to, the primary resources, peer reviewed papers, and other credible resources on a wide range of climate topics.
Wim Grommen has been claiming for years that the Dow Jones Industrial Average is a sham, because it is manipulated to push up the market.
Investment manager and writer Barry Ritholtz notes today:
The venerable Dow ... remains deeply flawed in its methodology, driven rather arbitrarily by the price weightings of its constituents rather than their market values.
You can see how this affects the weighting of each component in the index. Companies with higher stock prices such as Visa and Goldman Sachs have a 9.7 percent and 6.7 percent weight, respectively, while lower-priced stocks such as Cisco Systems and General Electric are merely 1.05 percent 0.91 percent, respectively. Why Goldman Sachs, with an $84 billion capitalization, matters more to the Dow than General Electric, with a $257 billion capitalization, is rather mystifying. A high-priced, smaller company carrying more weight than a lower-priced, bigger company makes no sense.
Not only that, but it is an actively selected — though not actively traded — portfolio, managed by a group of editors. Originally these editors were employees of Dow Jones, the company, but since 2012 the index has been 73 percent owned by McGraw Hill Financi ...
The almost-$2 surge in WTI crude prices on Friday - proving recovery is here and stability is back - is gone... long gone. Following comments from Chevron of major cost cutting, slashing capex (down 13% YoY), but ramping production of shale and tight assets, WTI crude has tumbled back to a $48 handle.
*CHEVRON SIGNALS LOWER CAPITAL SPEND
*CHEVRON SIGNALS AGGRESSIVE COST MANAGEMENT
*CHEVRON CURTAILING CAPITAL SPENDING & LOWERING COSTS
*CHEVRON: POSITIONED FOR 20% PRODUCTION GROWTH TO 2017
*CVX TO CONTINUE TO RAMP-UP PROD FROM OUR SHALE & TIGHT ASSETS
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