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10Mar2015 Market Close:

Written by Gary

Markets ended down today nearly 2% as the DOW is off 333 at the close on moderate to heavy volume. Indicators show the next down session will be the last in 5 and the markets may go upwards again as they have done in the past. Failing this SWAG look for more down side to coincide with falling oil.

The Ukraine situation is heating up with the U.S. Sending 100 tanks and considering more. The U.S. Dollar rose to a new high of 98.65 which some claim was instrumental to the markets collapse today.

Todays S&P 500 Chart

Our medium term indicators are leaning towards Hold portfolio of non-performers and the session market direction meter (for day traders) is 54 % bearish. We remain mostly conservatively bullish, but with a bearish slant. I am very concerned any downtrend could get very aggressive in the short-term and any volatility may also promote sudden reversals that will only please the day traders. members' sentiments are 72% Bearish.

Traders Corner - Health of the Market



Current Value

CNN's Fear & Greed Index

Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear


Investors Intelligence sets the breath

Above 50 bullish

60.3 Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO)

anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold.

-40.27 NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($NYA200R)

$NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Dropping below 40%-35% signals serious continuing weakness and falling averages.

54.11% NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA)

Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash.

62.60 S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX)

In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction.

73.40 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX)

ten year note index value

21.76 Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY)

As long as the consumer discretionary holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy

74.64 NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA)

Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors


The Market in Perspective

Here are the headlines moving the markets. xxxxxxxxxxx

Nasdaq looks different 15 years after its peak: then and now

(Reuters) - Happy anniversary, Nasdaq. It has been 15 years since the bubble peaked on March 10, 2000, and the Nasdaq composite index hit its lifetime intraday high of 5,132. Back then many of us were watching reality TV shows like "Survivor" and bidding up stocks of companies that had no earnings.

US Sends Over 100 US Tanks, Armor To Latvia As Nuland "Confirms" Russia Delivering Weapons

No lesser trustworthy character than Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland explained this morning that the US can "confirm" new Russian weapons delivery to Ukraine and that they "can tell" when Russia sends in new weapons (though offering no explanation of this statement). This comment to the Senate Committee comes a day after the US delivered 'lethal aid' to Latvia - 120 armored units (including tanks) - with US Army General John O'Conner who witnessed the tanks arriving on Latvian soil said, "Freedom must be fought for, freedom must be defended." And finally, one more shot in the eye of the germans, deputy under-secretary of Defense Brian McKeon said the US is "actively considering more weapons for Ukraine," seemingly implying they alreadt sent some?

The rhetoric is heating up







And this comes a day after the US delivered lethal aid to Latvia...

As RT reports,

Latvia has confirmed more than 120 armored units, including tanks, have been delivered by the US. According to the Latvian Ministry of Defense, these include M1A2 Abrams tanks and ...

Dollar rally sinks oil; Brent down more than U.S. crude

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A rallying dollar sent oil prices sharply lower on Tuesday, with Brent falling more than U.S. crude as players took profits on recent highs in Brent's premium, traders said.

Emerging Markets Lose Their Luster as Crises Mount

Once seen as a necessity in portfolios, investments in countries like Brazil and Russia are being reassessed because of messy politics and flagging economies.

Meanwhile In Greece, "Emotional Apathy Sinking In"

By Pantelis Boukalas ok Kathimerini

Emotional apathy sinking in

In the past five years, despite consecutive "bailout programs," or maybe because of them, the terms "last chance," "Grexit," "ultimatum" and "destruction" have been doing the rounds with exhausting regularity in Greek and international headlines.

To begin with, they are exhausting our souls. They are also exhausting the country's economy, which could not have withstood such a barrage of negativity even if it had been among the strongest in Europe. And that it is not has been acknowledged even by the most fervent champions of the famous "success story" which left Greece unable to meet its current obligations.

Whether these proclamations of doom are based on reality are blown out of proportion or invented is neither here not there because their effect remains the same â€" corrosive. And, unfortunately or fortunately, we cannot all deal with the fear being cultivated in the same way as Former Finance Minister Gikas Hardouvelis, who admitted to spiriting money out of Greece because he was scared. The overwhelming majority of Greeks cannot even dream of the kind of income he made.

The result is that gradually, from one scare to another, many â€" and especially those who have nothing left to lose â€" have given up looking for defenses, whether individual or collective, and have given in to the sin of sloth. They are not lazy or indifferent but experiencing emotional apathy. It has become a certainty that our destruction is much worse than a self-fulfilling prophecy: It has been orchestrated from outside. Either to punish the "lazy Greeks" or to warn others being tempted in ...

State of the Art: Apple Watch Displays Your Digital World, at a Glance

The Apple Watch is good looking for a smartwatch and not hard to use, according to initial impressions. But who knows if it is really a necessary purchase.

More Americans are quitting their jobs, which could mean larger paychecks are on the way

WASHINGTON (AP) — Quitting your job — all but unheard of during and after the Great Recession — is becoming more common again. That could mean pay raises are coming for more Americans. The trend has already emerged in the restaurant and retail industries, where quits and pay are rising faster than in the overall economy. Workers in those industries appear to be taking advantage of rising consumer demand to seek better pay elsewhere. Workers who quit typically do so to take higher-paying jobs.

That's why rising numbers of quits typically signal confidence in the economy and the job market. As the trend takes hold, employers are often forced to offer higher pay to hold on to their staffers or attract new ones. The Labor Department said Tuesday that the number of people who quit jobs rose 3 percent from December to January to 2.8 million — the most in more than six years. Quits have jumped 17 percent over the past 12 months.

Wall St. falls 1 percent as dollar strength raises profit fears

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell more than 1 percent on Tuesday afternoon as strength in the dollar increased worries about the earnings outlook for multinational companies.

Next Mega-Bailout On Deck: White House Studying "New Bankruptcy Options" For Student-Loan Borrowers

A quick reminder of what the biggest debt bubble currently facing America's population is.

Why is this a problem? Because as the TBAC revealed a few months back, the default risk from the $1 trillions in student loans is several orders of magnitude above the 9% student loans which the Fed has revealed as currently "in default", as one has to add those 12% of loans in deferment and 11% in forbearance to the entire risk pool. In short: a third of all student loans are likely to end up unrepaid!

And, the punchline: according to the TBAC's worst case scenario of the future of student debt, this gargantuan load will triple over the next decade, to as much as $3.3 trillion by 2024.

This means ...

Exclusive: KKR nears $2 billion deal for Air Medical - sources

(Reuters) - KKR & Co LP is in advanced talks to acquire Air Medical Group Holdings Inc in a deal that could value the U.S. helicopter ambulance company at around $2 billion, including debt, according to people familiar with the matter.

Do Not Show Mario Draghi This Chart

This was not supposed to happen... Once again it appears that front-running the central banks hints and selling the actions is the new normal as (just as occurred in the period around the Q€ announcement), despite pushging higher last week, inflation expectations have tumbled lower since Draghi unleashed the trillion-euro bazooka...

We're gonna need a bigger bazooka - and some ETFs to buy...

Chart: Bloomberg

Allied Nevada Gold Files For Bankruptcy Protection

Just as in the case of oil currently, the problem with gold (and countless other commodities) trading where it does, is that as we have shown repeatedly on previous occasions, it is at or below the marginal production cost of various gold producers.

And with miners losing money on every incremental ounce (or barrell) they pull out of the ground, there is only so much capital they can burn before they have not choice but to file for bankruptcy. Which is precisely what happened to Allied Nevada Gold, the operator of the gaming state's Hycroft mine, which earlier today filed for bankruptcy in Delaware.

The company blamed its deteriorating financial condition on the drop in gold and silver prices in recent years, an overleveraged capital structure, delays in a key expansion project, and currency swap exposure.

Yes, this is that Allied Nevada whose stock price traded as high as $45 when gold hit its all time high of over $1,900 hours before the SNB imposed its first, and now failed, currency floor which translated into a market cap of just about $4.5 billion.

It was trading at under a $1, and since the company is now bankrupt, the equity is most likely worthless as the creditors take over the equity.

The company, incorporated in Delaware in 2006, owns more than 50 Nevada properties acquired in a merger, as well as interests in what it calls some of state's " ...

U.S. wholesale inventories rise; labor market tightening

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. wholesale inventories unexpectedly rose in January as sales recorded their biggest decline since 2009, lifting the number of months it would take to clear warehouses to its highest level in more than 5-1/2 years.

US May Run Out Of Oil Storage Space As Soon As June

On Sunday, we noted that the economics of the floating storage play could spell further declines for crude prices. With a global stock increase that's some 3 times larger than that which occurred during the last period of oversupply, expect cheap, on-land storage to prove inadequate necessitating the use of VLCCs. According to Soc Gen, determining how far the front end of the curve would have to fall in order for traders to arbitrage the difference between buying and storing physical oil and selling paper forward is a good indicator for where prices may find a floor:

...the bank is looking for the front end of the curve to fall until the contango is wide enough to make the floating storage play enticing.

The example Soc Gen uses shows that Brent needs to see ~$49 before the trade is sufficiently profitable.

The takeaway, we noted, is that storage availability and contango should be taken into account when considering the future direction of oil prices. With production still climbing despite the decline in rig count, it seems supply may, in short order, outstrip storage capacity for as the following two charts show, crude storage capacity in the US is now at 60% and is set to be completely exhausted by June:

Foreign Central Banks Buy More Than Half Of 3 Year Treasury Auction, Highest Indirect Takedown Since March 2010

Kicking off the weekly Treasury issuance was today's 3 Year auction which was another very strong auction, with the High Yield of 1.104%, despite being the highest since April 2011, pricing 1.1 bps inside of the When Issued at 1.115% at 1 pm. The Bid to Cover of 3.33 was right on top of the TTM average, and just a fraction below the 3.345 in January.

But the real story was in the internals, which again saw subdued Directs interest, who took down 8% of the final allotment, it was the Indirects (i.e., foreign central banks) which once again loaded up, taking down 51.4% of the auction, which was also the highest Indirect takedown since March 2010. This meant dealers were left with 40.5% of the issue, weill below the TTM average of 47%, which is understandable since in the lack of POMO, dealers can no longer "flip that bond" right back to the Fed in the next POMO in a few days.

Altogether a very strong auction, and certainly another confirmation that nobody is concerned about a surge in short-term rates any time soon.

â€'BREXIT' Poses Risks To Sterling Assets â€" UK Stocks and London Property

â€'BREXIT' Poses Risks To Sterling Assets â€" UK Stocks and London Property

Political uncertainty beginning to impact bond and property markets

UK bonds and stocks at all time record highs and â€'bubbly'

FTSE looks overvalued and ripe for sharp correction

"Air of caution in the run-up to the general election" hits London property

City of London has most to lose from Brexit

Brexit may isolate UK â€" "North Korea option" â€" or lead to strong, independent UK, like Hong Kong

Real diversification remains only "free lunch"


With all the focus on Grexit in recent weeks, investors have not paid much attention to the risk posed by â€'Brexit' or the possibility of the UK leaving the European Union.

This is the case in currency and stock markets with the FTSE and sterling remaining buoyant despite obvious risks. Indeed, gilts remain close to all time record highs â€" in part due to QE.

The FTSE 100's successive new record highs in recent weeks despite the deteriorating global economic backdrop has echoes of previous bubbles. We all know how those ended â€" see chart below.

Recovery? 50% More New Yorkers Sleeping In Shelters Than In 2010

On Friday we enthusiastically pointed out that in February, the US economy added nearly 60,000 new waiters and bartenders, the largest increase since August 2013, in what is obviously a sure sign that US economic growth has finally reached "escape velocity" (nevermind that real GDP growth is tracking around 1.2%). We also noted that even as the unemployment rate ticks lower, the number of Americans not in the labor force just hit a fresh high of nearly 93,000,000 while the labor force participation rate sits at a nearly four decade low. Finally, we thought it worth mentioning that February's auto sales numbers and the rising rate of repeat foreclosures in January suggest that perhaps autos and housing aren't doing as well as the media would have you believe.

It is against this backdrop that we present the following, which should serve as further evidence of the underlying strength in the US economy...

Via Bloomberg:

Volunteers of America, which has offices at LaGuardia and JFK, counted a monthly average of 45 chronic homeless people at LaGuardia in 2014, an 80 percent increase over the average mo ...

Dow Down 600 From "Nasdaq 5,000 Melt-Up" Highs

From the meltup to Nasdaq 5,000 day to today... The Dow is down 600 points from its highs...

Dow over 600 points below highs...

It seems like a very systemic drop in stocks...

as carry trades are unwound en masse...

The "No Warming In 16 Years" Crock

This video shows the deconstruction of the data reviewed here yesterday. continues to be the premier resource for climate denial debunkings online. SkS provides discussions of, and often, links to, the primary resources, peer reviewed papers, and other credible resources on a wide range of climate topics.

The Dow Is a Sham

Wim Grommen has been claiming for years that the Dow Jones Industrial Average is a sham, because it is manipulated to push up the market.

Investment manager and writer Barry Ritholtz notes today:

The venerable Dow ... remains deeply flawed in its methodology, driven rather arbitrarily by the price weightings of its constituents rather than their market values.

You can see how this affects the weighting of each component in the index. Companies with higher stock prices such as Visa and Goldman Sachs have a 9.7 percent and 6.7 percent weight, respectively, while lower-priced stocks such as Cisco Systems and General Electric are merely 1.05 percent 0.91 percent, respectively. Why Goldman Sachs, with an $84 billion capitalization, matters more to the Dow than General Electric, with a $257 billion capitalization, is rather mystifying. A high-priced, smaller company carrying more weight than a lower-priced, bigger company makes no sense.

Not only that, but it is an actively selected — though not actively traded — portfolio, managed by a group of editors. Originally these editors were employees of Dow Jones, the company, but since 2012 the index has been 73 percent owned by McGraw Hill Financi ...

EURUSD Tumbles To 1.06 Handle, Swissy Slides To USD Parity

When does the Euro become the Ruble?

This is the weakest for the Euro since April 2003...



Charts: Bloomberg

WTI Crude Slides To $48 Handle As Chevron Cuts Costs, Ramps Production

The almost-$2 surge in WTI crude prices on Friday - proving recovery is here and stability is back - is gone... long gone. Following comments from Chevron of major cost cutting, slashing capex (down 13% YoY), but ramping production of shale and tight assets, WTI crude has tumbled back to a $48 handle.






WTI gives up Friday's gains...

And then Chevron added:


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