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06Mar2015 Market Open Commentary: Markets Weaker On Back Of Good Jobs Report

Written by Gary

The markets opened lower with the S&P 500 on track for a second week of decline. Strong monthly jobs report heightened expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve could raise interest rates sooner than anticipated which is not market friendly.


Here is the Market Open from CNN Money

North and South American markets are mixed to lower. Shares in Brazil are off as the Bovespa drops 0.55%. The S&P 500 is down 0.44% while the IPC in Mexico is unchanged.

Traders Corner - Health of the Market

Index Description Current Value
CNN's Fear & Greed Index Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear 63
Investors Intelligence sets the breath Above 50 bullish 61
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold. -10
StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($NYA200R) $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Dropping below 40%-35% signals serious continuing weakness and falling averages. 57%
StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. 76
StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction. 69
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) ten year note index value 22
StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) As long as the consumer discretionary holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy 76
StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors 48

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines that are moving the markets.

January 2015 Trade Data Headlines Show Weakness in Exports and Imports

Written by Steven Hansen

A quick recap to the trade data released today again shows both the unadjusted value of import and export rolling averages decelerating month-over-month. Many care about the trade balance (which was better than last month and at expectations), but trade balance simply has little correlation to economic activity. Likely much of the bad data is due to the West Coast ports labor issues.

Read more ...

Oil climbs toward $61 on Middle East supply concerns

LONDON (Reuters) - Brent crude oil rose toward $61 a barrel on Friday as fighting in Libya and Iraq stoked output worries, while traders kept a close eye on Iran nuclear talks that could eventually bring more supply to world markets.

Apple to replace AT&T in Dow industrials

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Apple Inc, the nation's largest company by market value, will join the Dow Jones Industrial Average on March 18, replacing AT&T Inc, S&P Dow Jones Indices said on Friday.

Nissan expands North America hood latch recall to 878,000 Altima sedans

DETROIT (Reuters) - Nissan Motor Co expanded the North American recall of its top-selling Altima sedan to about 878,000 vehicles because a secondary hood latch may fail and cause the hood to fly up while the car is in motion, according to a company filing with U.S. safety regulators.

BLS Jobs Situation Continued to Improve in February 2015 With Year-over-Year Rate of Growth Accelerating

The BLS jobs report headlines from the establishment survey were strong and above expectations. The unadjusted data shows relatively strong jobs growth. The household survey continues to tell a different story - and consider that the unadjusted data from the establishment survey was about average for growth seen in times of economic expansion. The rate of jobs growth continues to accelerate.

Read more ...

U.S. labor market flexes muscles in February

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. employment accelerated in February and the jobless rate fell to a more than 6-1/2 year low of 5.5 percent, signs that could encourage the Federal Reserve to consider hiking interest rates in June.

Staples sales miss estimates on weak demand, strong dollar

(Reuters) - Staples Inc reported lower-than-expected fourth-quarter sales, hurt by a strong dollar and weak demand for computers and related accessories, and the company said sales in the current quarter would be lower than those in the same quarter last year.

Americans Not In The Labor Force Rise To Record 98.9 Million As Participation Rate Declines Again

For those (very few now, with even the Fed admitting the unemployment rate has become a meaningless, anachronistic relic) still wondering why the unemployment rate dropped once again, sliding from 5.7% to 5.5%, the reason is that while the number of unemployed Americans dropped by 274K thousand while those employed rose by 96K, the underlying math is that the civilian labor force dropped from 157,180 to 157,002 (following the major revisions posted last month), while the people not in the labor force rose by 354,000 in February, rising to a record 92,898,000 (people who currently want a job rose to 6,538K) matching the all time high number of Americans not in the labor force.

End result: the labor force participation rate dropped once more, declining to only 62.8%, which as the chart below shows is just off the lowest print recorded since 1978.

Source: BLS

US Trade Deficit Worse Than Expected As Auto Exports Tumble

As Chinese exports crashed in January (and imports were extremely weak), one could be forgiven for expecting the US trade deficit to be more extreme than the tumble it experienced in December... but no. The US Trade Deficit printed $41.8bn, slightly worse than the $41.1bn expectation but 'better' than the adjusted $45.6 billion. Imports dropped 3.9% in January and Exports fell 2.9% but YoY imports fell 0.17% and exports fell 1.75% - the last time both fell YoY was November 2008. This is the 2nd month in a row of worse than expected deficits (and 4th of last 5). The shift is led by big drops in Food & Beverage (-9.1%) and Auto (-7.0%) exports and an 11.3% plunge in Industrial Supplies imports.

4th of last 5 month bigger than expected trade deficit...

Takeovers See U.S. Losing Tax Revenue

A wave of foreign takeovers is steering more tax revenue away from Uncle Sam.

Retiring: Retirement in a Community. But Which One?

Asking the right questions before making a move can prevent a wrong decision, which can be painful emotionally and financially.

Alan Greenspan Warns Stocks Are "Without Doubt Extremely Overvalued"

While America 'believes' it is highly productive, former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan instantly dispels that myth in another ominous appearance on CNBC this morning, "American productivity has gone nowhere in the last few years," and that is what is holding back wage growth. Furthermore, reiterating his concerns about the inverse relationship between surging entitlements and weak savings rates, Greenspan noted, "the annual rate of increase in entitlements of 9% per year...and the people that receive it believe they are getting their money back and have a right to it." There simply is no long-term investment as businesses favor short-term actions as the Maestro explains Fed QE lowering the real rate of interest "has been responsible for the rise in P/E multiples... and when rates normalize, that will reverse," adding that "we can't argue that we are extremely overvalued in the marketplace."

Greenspan explains... Productivity... Savings... Entitlements... Euro Failure... QE...Fed bubble-blowing... stock overvaluation and 1929 looms...

06Mar2015 Pre-Market Commentary: Markets Quiet Awaiting USA Jobs Report

Written by Gary

The markets are quiet awaiting the release of the BLS Jobs Report. Some are predicting if the jobs report comes in strong, it may cause pressure on the Fed to raise rates sooner than later. Asian and European Markets are mixed.

Read more ...

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To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

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