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posted on 03 January 2018

Rules For The Road - Part II

Written by , Clarity Financial

No one knows with certainty what the future holds which is why we must manage portfolio risk accordingly and be prepared to react when conditions change.


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While I am often tagged as “bearish" due to my analysis of economic and fundamental data for “what it is" rather than “what I hope it to be," I am actually neither bullish or bearish. I follow a very simple set of rules which are the core of my portfolio management philosophy which focus on capital preservation and long-term “risk-adjusted" returns.

As such, let me remind you of the 15-Risk Management Rules I have learned over the last 30-years:

  1. Cut losers short and let winner’s run. (Be a scale-up buyer into strength.)
  2. Set goals and be actionable. (Without specific goals, trades become arbitrary and increase overall portfolio risk.)
  3. Emotionally driven decisions void the investment process. (Buy high/sell low)
  4. Follow the trend. (80% of portfolio performance is determined by the long-term, monthly, trend. While a “rising tide lifts all boats," the opposite is also true.)
  5. Never let a “trading opportunity" turn into a long-term investment. (Refer to rule #1. All initial purchases are “trades," until your investment thesis is proved correct.)
  6. An investment discipline does not work if it is not followed.
  7. “Losing money" is part of the investment process. (If you are not prepared to take losses when they occur, you should not be investing.)
  8. The odds of success improve greatly when the fundamental analysis is confirmed by the technical price action. (This applies to both bull and bear markets)
  9. Never, under any circumstances, add to a losing position. (As Paul Tudor Jones once quipped: “Only losers add to losers.")
  10. Market are either “bullish" or “bearish." During a “bull market" be only long or neutral. During a “bear market"be only neutral or short. (Bull and Bear markets are determined by their long-term trend as shown in the chart below.)
  11. When markets are trading at, or near, extremes do the opposite of the “herd."
  12. Do more of what works and less of what doesn’t. (Traditional rebalancing takes money from winners and adds it to losers. Rebalance by reducing losers and adding to winners.)
  13. “Buy" and “Sell" signals are only useful if they are implemented. (Managing a portfolio without a “buy/sell" discipline is designed to fail.)
  14. Strive to be a .700 “at bat" player. (No strategy works 100% of the time. However, being consistent, controlling errors, and capitalizing on opportunity is what wins games.)
  15. Manage risk and volatility. (Controlling the variables that lead to investment mistakes is what generates returns as a byproduct.)

The current market advance both looks, and feels, like the last leg of a market “melt up" as we previously witnessed at the end of 1999. How long it can last is anyone’s guess. However, importantly, it should be remembered that all good things do come to an end. Sometimes, those endings can be very disastrous to long-term investing objectives.This is why focusing on “risk controls" in the short-term, and avoiding subsequent major draw-downs, the long-term returns tend to take care of themselves.

Everyone approaches money management differently. This is just the way I do it.

All I am suggesting is that you do “something" as the alternative will be much less beneficial.


Portfolio Update

Over the last couple of weeks, I have discussed looking for the right setup to add some hedges to our current long-equity portfolios. That setup occurred last week, and as discussed previously, we have implemented the following:

  • Rebalanced overweight positions back to target portfolio weights.
  • Added exposure to bonds, utilities and REIT’s bringing allocations up to portfolio weight or slightly overweight.
  • Add a tactical trade of a short S&P 500 position to hedge risk.
  • Move up stops on all positions to current support levels.

We remain invested but are becoming highly concerned about the underlying risk. Our main goal remains capital preservation.

Happy New Year

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