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posted on 12 September 2017

Reaching For The Top

Written by

The Dow Industrials advanced to a new all-time closing High today, but not to a new intraday High. The S&P 500 rose to a new all-time closing High today AND to a new all-time intraday High. The NASDAQ Composite and 100 advanced to new all-time closing Highs today, but not to new intraday Highs.

Click for large image at Dangerous and Stupid.

dangerous.ladder


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It seems probable that these moves are the start of the very final upleg of the bull market, of which the top end will be the historic Final Peak that has been building for a very long time. Another possibility is that the Indexes posted their peaks today, and will turn down from here. Another is that the Indexes will post new all-time Highs AND new Intraday Highs on the same day, and then turn down from there.

Does the S&P 500 ETF chart look anything like the man on the ladder pictured above?

spx.2017.sep.12

The Leader Falters

It seems odd that today’s advances were “contradicted" by a 64-cent decline in the shares of Apple, Inc., which is on all four of the major stock Indexes (all of which ROSE today), and which was scheduled to announce a new i-phone today. This phenomenon would seem to indicate a broadened appetite “for anything and everything on the menu."

The Followers Surge Ahead

In that regard, we note that the Russell 2000 and S&P 400 (Midcap) and Smallcap (600) Indexes enjoyed strong rises two days in a row (yesterday and today). Once again, the “man-in-the-street investor" is being inveigled into putting his money into the broader stock market at the tail end of a strong bull run. It happens every time. It happened in January 2000, and it happened again in October 2007, just before the market debacle of 2008-early 2009, the latter of which shaved more than 50% off the Dow Industrials and more than 70% off the NASDAQ.

small.caps.2017.sep.12

Meanwhile, the VIX “fear/complacency Index" reveals a profound state of complacency among investors.Not everyone will be able to squeeze through the melee at the Exit Door or to find a chair when the music finally stops playing.

vix.2017.sep.12

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