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posted on 12 April 2017

The Real 401k Plan Manager 10 April 2017

Written by , Clarity Financial

The Real 401k Plan Manager - A Conservative Strategy For Long-Term Investors


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There are 4-steps to allocation changes based on 25% reduction increments. As noted in the chart above a 100% allocation level is equal to 60% stocks. I never advocate being 100% out of the market as it is far too difficult to reverse course when the market changes from a negative to a positive trend. Emotions keep us from taking the correct action.

401k-PlanManager-AllocationShift

Trump Trade Fading?

Over the last several weeks, I have been writing the 401k model needs to be adjusted up to 100% equity allocation. We still have a couple of the seasonally strong months of the year left ahead of us, and as noted above, the bullish trend remains intact.

The current consolidation in the market over the last few weeks, and the current risk/reward setup as noted above, is moving us toward an opportunity to incrementally increase exposure most likely in the next week or so.

As noted in the 401k-chart above, the current extension above the moving average has started to correct. The buy signals are beginning to contract and the deviation above the long-term average is being reduced. As long as the correction process is confined to a bullish trend, a short-term buy signal will allow for an increase in the model exposure.

WARNING: If you do not pay close attention to your 401-k plan, or are just more conservative, there is a substantial possibility that any increase in the model allocation could be reversed within a fairly short time frame.

The markets continue to hold together hoping for some movement on fiscal policy. However, the weak employment report on Friday may buy investors some time the slide in economic data may sideline the Fed from further rate hikes in June. This could be bullish for equities in the short term and we will likely know the market’s answer next week.

I did note four weeks ago, the run-up in interest rates HAD put bonds into a favorable position to add exposure in portfolios. That suggestion played out very favorably but with rates now back to short-term overbought condition, refrain from adding further fixed income holdings until the market bounces.

If you need help after reading the alert; don’t hesitate to contact me.


Current 401-k Allocation Model

The 401k plan allocation plan below follows the K.I.S.S. principal. By keeping the allocation extremely simplified it allows for better control of the allocation and a closer tracking to the benchmark objective over time. (If you want to make it more complicated you can, however, statistics show that simply adding more funds does not increase performance to any great degree.)

401k Choice Matching List

The list below shows sample 401k plan funds for each major category. In reality, the majority of funds all track their indices fairly closely. Therefore, if you don’t see your exact fund listed, look for a fund that is similar in nature.

401k-Selection-List

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