posted on 20 January 2017
by Jeff Miller, A Dash of Insight
Last week’s Stock Exchange illustrated how different approaches worked to generate varied ideas. If you missed last week, you will find it to be useful background for today’s topic.
In the last two weeks the market has been relatively quiet. Dow 20K is still a gleam in the eye. Some are announcing that the “Trump Rally" is over. If you are an aggressive trader, is there any way to exploit this situation?
Our technical experts have ideas, which are also interesting for those of us emphasizing fundamentals. Anyone who has worked with a group of traders knows that there are many opinions. While you might not agree with them, it is often worth listening. Many traders use social networks for this purpose. One brokerage advertises this feature of their site. Another invites you to call one of their “experts." The chief problem? Finding people worth following! The brokerages just want you to do a lot of trading. The more opinions the better.
Our Stock Exchange participants can provide better help for those who are not working in a trading room. Even better, the trades work pretty well! Let’s dig in with this week’s ideas. As usual, I will conclude with a brief observation.
I have offered a new (free) service to subscribers to our Felix/Oscar update list. You can suggest three favorite stocks and sectors. We will report regularly on the “favorite fifteen" in each category - stocks and sectors - as determined by readers. Sign up with email to “etf at newarc dot com". Suggestions and comments are welcome. In the tables below, green is a “buy," yellow a “hold," and red a “sell." Each category represents about 1/3 of the underlying universe. Please remember that these are responses to reader requests, not necessarily stocks and sectors that we own. Sign up now to vote your favorite stock or sector onto the list!
This Week - Ideas from the Trading Room
This week I’m buying high fashion! Michael Kors (KORS), trading at 42.83.
The stock looks to be consolidating at a higher low from the previous big down move (40.70) of May 17 2016, which is higher than the move before that of 35.79 and Jan 15, 2016. All these higher lows give me the chance to buy here and watch carefully that KORS stays above the previous low. What is my upside target? Well, the highs seem to be lower too…so I’m thinking 48.60 the current 200d MA is a worthy target…but I’ll be watching carefully. If I get the rally and the stock starts to roll over I’ll be a quick seller.
Don’t need to hit homers all the times, many games are won with timely singles.
J: Homers versus singles? Have you been spending more time with Oscar?
H: He did take me to the “dog night" at “The Cell" last year.
J: It is now called “Guaranteed Rate Field."
H: No!! Oscar still calls it Comiskey.
J: Turning to your KORS idea, have you been following retail sales reports, especially for the luxury sector?
H: As you know, I read charts, not news.
J: The stock looks good on a fundamental basis as well. Here is the basic F.A.S.T. graph.
H: It looks like “value" investors might have been stuck in this one for some time. My rebound strategy is clearly better!
My pick this week, Fifth-Third Bancorp (FITB), has started to level off since November’s rally. I like that price action. As you know by now, I’m most enthusiastic about a stock when I think it’s due for a pop. FITB is still underpriced based on my technical indicators. We were closer to fair valuation at the end of December. I might hold onto this one for three or four weeks, and hope for a small gain.
J: Once again you have a choice that fundamental investors can also embrace. I have been recommending regional bank stocks for many months. The recent increase in interest rates has helped the group. If the economy continues to improve, the Fed will raise short-term rates. The prime rate goes up instantly. Rates paid to savers go up more slowly - much more slowly. That means more profit for banks.
A: Your complex methods can sometimes lead you to a conclusion that is obvious from the chart.
J: This time my methods allowed me to enjoy that November surge.
A: Let us see if they get you out in a timely fashion as well.
I will begin this week with my responses to reader votes for the favorites list.
My list provides rankings within each zone, as well as the basics about buy, hold, and sell. The list includes the top overall vote getters from our (free) subscription list as well as some new requests I got during the week.
J: The stocks are about the same as last week.
F: The list changes, but only as the reader favorites change. I encourage my fans to submit requests.
J: The order of the ratings has changed. Are you going to resume showing us the week-over-week comparison?
F: I am thinking about that problem. Some of the stocks were not rated last week. For the moment, readers must follow their favorites each week.
J: Maybe we’ll get some good new suggestions. What is your featured stock for this week?
F: I suspect that you will not like my answer. I have nothing new this week.
J: Didn’t you just request a raise?
F: Yes. As you know I have had the best performance since you added me in September. I have been better than the dog, and a lot better than Oscar.
J: That is only five months, but I agree about your good start. That does not give you license to take the week off.
F: I worked, but there are no new ideas for my style. You told us all not to trade just to prove we are doing something. The holding period for my stocks averages five quarters. I am not going to have a fresh trade each week.
J: That makes sense. Just stay on the job and don’t reach for new positions. I don’t want to encourage you to get ideas from those high-frequency models in Chicago. They play a very different game.
F: So I have heard!
Here are my ratings for the top reader interests. There are still three open slots, so keep the questions coming.
J: Interesting. What do you have for us this week?
O: I’ve talked about oil and oil refiners a lot over the past few weeks. Judging by the dip we’ve seen over the past year - and the rough patch we had in January 2016 - there was an awful lot of value to be found in this sector. I see a similar (albeit more modest) opportunity in Refiners now. Valero Energy (VLO) is a suitable example. Note the contraction so far in the month of January. Our 50-day moving average has spiked, while the 200-day moving average has barely evened out. I would be very surprised to see a correction here continue for much longer - despite the volatility in this sector.
J: Many people mistakenly trade in overall energy ETFs that include refiners. The characteristics are quite different. Crude is a raw material for refiners, so lower prices can be very good. Gasoline demand is important. Twice a year they make a switch from the summer blend to winter, and vice-versa. It is early for the summer switch, but could that be what you are seeing?
O: I see what the chart tells me. I just put it in the tank no matter whether it is winter or summer. Gas prices will be going higher and VLO will probably cash in!
Our models provide an interesting “trading group". We see many interesting ideas. We never know in advance what will be chosen, but a study of the charts is often revealing. Sometimes the trades are attractive on the fundamentals as well. That provides an assist for long-term shoppers who are looking for a good entry point.
Be receptive to methods different from your own. You are not the only expert!
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