econintersect.com
       
  

FREE NEWSLETTER: Econintersect sends a nightly newsletter highlighting news events of the day, and providing a summary of new articles posted on the website. Econintersect will not sell or pass your email address to others per our privacy policy. You can cancel this subscription at any time by selecting the unsubscribing link in the footer of each email.



posted on 18 May 2016

Sell In May And Go Away? What Is The Truth About Seasonality In The Markets?

by Michael Clark

We have all heard the Wall Street axiom: "Sell in May and go away." Is there any truth to this axiom?

I am interested in this question for practical reasons, and also out of a curiosity that is more philosophical. My main (philosophical) reasons for expecting a major transition in 2019 -- 'the end of the world, the beginning of the world' -- a transition turning the negative of what I call the Night-Cycle (2001-2019) into the positive of what I call the Day-Cycle (2019-2037) is an understanding that there is a (positive) growth period always followed by a (negative) rest period.

So I expect that there is some truth in the axiom "Sell In May and Go Away". I expect to find some truth in this. Afterall, my Day-Cycles of Growth are essentially seasons of nature, beginning in December and ending in June, Winter to Summer projections.

Having said that, I downloaded Dow Jones Industrial Average prices from 1928-2015. Then I measured price gain every year from December 21 through June 21 and compared this with price gain every year from June 21 through December 21.

The Ancient world recognized these two seasonal doors as extreme movements and points of change of direction. Twin gates into changed experiences. The Gate of Capricorn. And the Gate of Cancer. In astrology, the Gate of Cancer opens the door into the Human Experience; the Gate of Capricorn into the Trans-Human Experience. The Gate of Capricorn is a door out of the Human Experience on Earth, the Material Kingdom; it is a door that opens up to Heaven.

In my youth, I felt all of this quite spectacularly. My manuscript TWO AND A HALF LOVES explores this experience of the miraculous. I was fifteen in 1965, when my friend Ralph Vasey, my next door neighbor, brought one of his brother's albums over to our house: Bob Dylan's BRINGING IT ALL BACK HOME.

This marked, I see this only through reflection, the beginning of the Night-Cycle 1965-1983. Of course, each of us will have a different central, see experience, such as my Bob Dylan initiation. Keep in mind: the Day-Cycle is about vertical growth (more physicality, think of the tree); the Night-Cycle is about horizontal growth (breadth instead of height -- nourishment of the earth-bound root system instead of the heaven-bound fruit system). The Day-Cycle is the 'going out' into adventure; the Night-Cycle is the 'bringing it all back home' part of the journey, the return cycle.

The Day-Cycle is the Sun-governed growth system that produces fruit, evolution, history. The Night-Cycle is the Moon-governed rest system that prepares the seed for the next stage of life, after a period of gestation and dreaming.

Both cycles are about growth. The Day-Cycle is about outward growth, bodily growth. The Night-Cycle is about inward growth, spiritual growth, God-awareness growth. Ideas. Bob Dylan introduced me in a very immediate way to the power of ideas. Ideas are seeds; seeds that become fruit, through time. The Night-Cycle is a time of planting seeds. In truth, this process takes time. The Day-Cycle ends in Summer, at Noon, on June 21, with the fruit at the top of the tree, fully grown. Remember, we are speaking in metaphor. This is what we expect to find from our stock market study also. From June 21 to December 21 we expect to find the long descent of the seed trapped in the corrupt, decaying body, the long fall out of the tree (heaven) back to the earth. The seed freed from that decaying body. The burial of that see in the earth. The vitalization and inspection, the warming of the local or national, the non-global, of that root-system -- the seed is buried in the earth to keep it warm and protect it from the cold wind of Winter storms -- and the initiation into true time, Eternal Time. Nature's cycles.

Ancient myths always talk about the rebirth of the Sun, the seed, the Earth, in December. December 21. This is the birth of the New Idea, the New Man. During the Day-Cycle we all grow physically; our cities grow; our material self-consciousness grows. But then it reaches its Growth-Limit. As the Life-Energy reaches its outward growth-limit, it inverts and begins growing in the opposite direction. It changes sides. Physical creative energy inverts into Spiritual creative energy, leaving entropy where it once was vitality. During the entire Night-Cycle entropy rules the abandoned physical realms. Chaos grows. Positive energy turns into negative energy (...1929, 1965, 2001...). From our perch in the Physical Tree of Life we see this Death as something demonic. Let's look more closely. The Life Principle, the Middle Principle, the Creative Principle, is enjoined to create both Heaven and Earth. In 1965, when the Creation of the Earth Cycle ends -- or in 2001 -- the Middle Principle reverses direction, stops guiding Man on Earth -- and re-begins his endless service in the inner realm, beginning his 18-year cycle of re-building Heaven (Ideas, Philosophy), joining the Gods, abandoning humanity.

Then humans on earth watch everything around then decay, deconstruct, turn to Chaos. Isis this time. Global Communism from 1965-1983. Global Fascism from 1929-1947. Extremism is the form of imbalance or Chaos that deconstructs the world we build every 36 years. If we view all of this as a process, we see that the world we re-build from 1947-1965 we destroy from 1965-1983. The world we re-build from 1983-2001 we destroy from 2001-2019. This is a microcosm of the world as it is: creation-destruction-creation-destruction. Destruction is creation in the opposite direction.

The Middle Principle does not rest, creating the Earth (Physical Man, the Ego) and then creating Heaven (Spiritual Man, the Self) in turns, one after the other, sequentially in time.

So, Spiritual (Heavenly) re-creation began in 2001, the creation of the Next Idea of the World -- we can see this from our perspective as the 1983 seed culminating in the global fruition or fruit in 2001 and then being metaphorically harvested, the body falling into decay, disrepair, collapse, the Night rushing in to fill the void. This deconstruction process (which is a reconstruction process in the Realm of Ideas) ends in 2019. How do I know this? It has taken a life-time of reflection and writing for me to discover this scale. For now you will just have to take my word on this. See if you can see the seams in the world: like looking for the seams in the baseball.

From 1965 through 1983, my experience was dark: becoming darker each year. In 1976 I met the woman who was going to be my wife -- only she was already married. My first love became my last love, my lost love, and I was forced to leave my home in Wyoming and travel west, to Oregon. This was my first exile. (There would be another.) I began work on a major novel that would document my descent into hell: CONVERSATIONS ON A DYING AGE. This was not just about my death; our entire culture was dying. THE DECLINE OF THE WEST became a major theme in this novel. Dante was guiding me through my hell, as Virgil had guided Dante through his. Dante and James Joyce. And Helena Blavatsky who built a great bridge over hell with her THE SECRET DOCTRINE written at the turn of the century. Blavatsky was the Great Moon Goddess shining in the sky when the Sun went out, turned black. This cycle I was experiencing was the replica of the larger cycle of human history: the microcosm. Blavatsky was the Moon, Wisdom, that built the bridge to rebirth. I was the murdered Sun, going in to the underworld, seeking the gift of immortality. (This similar death-experience returned, much to my surprise, in the 2001-2019 Night-Cycle, which reflected my earlier 1965-1983 Night-Cycle descent into Depth experience.)

Was this experience real? Is the dream real? I would say the dream is as real as the waking experience is real. Both are real in their own realms. Both are real and unreal at the same time. When we sleep we forget the Waking World -- and it becomes unreal to us from that perspective. When we awaken we forget the Dreaming World -- and it slips away from us.

It was the Western Idea that died every 18 years, the individual separate existence, cut off from the group, the Tribal East. During my death experience, I became more and more alienated from America, Western Civilization, Science, Capitalism, the Rugged Individual standing alone against the World. In 1965 -- Dylan is a vital symbol of this -- the re-building of a World Against the West began -- and it became clear to me that Noon (1929, 1965, 2001) were symbols of the Son's exile from Heaven, exile from the Father; the journey back to the Mother began. The Day-Cycle (1947-1965) was the time of the Father's conquest of the Earth. The Son was on the Father's side. The Mother had vanished. But then the Mother came back into view. The Back to Nature Movement was a return to the Mother, a rejection of the Father's Independence Movement, Individuality Destiny Religion. The Father's World was higher, more powerful, with more light. But the Mother's World was deeper, darker, and more mysterious, leading to the miracle of rebirth.

Looking back, I see we need both sides to this circle. The Sun, the Father, rules part of the world; the Moon, the Mother, rules the other part. As in our study of the stock market, from December to June should reflect the Sun and the Father's rule; and stocks from June to December should reflect the Moon and the Mother's rule, the dark gestation part, the burial of the seed, and the preparation for rebirth.

What did we find in our study? In 87 years, 87 trading components, the Father's World had 59 winning hands, and 28 losing hands. The Mother's World had a comparable record: 56 winning hands, and 30 losing hands. Did this debunk our theory? Not entirely. Remember our view is that Day-Cycles are about vertical growth; Night-Cycles are about consolidation, and not a return to zero. Night-Cycles are about horizontal growth. When we dream each night we do not return to our physical childhood. Our body rests, it does not return to zero. Rest is consolidation. Let's look further at our data:

From December to June every year in our study -- the Father's World -- Winter to Summer -- the Dow returned a total of 10,909 points, an average gain of 125.39 points per season. The Mother's World -- Summer to Winter -- the Dow returned a total of only 6,924 points, an average gain of only 80.5 points per season.

If we look at this in terms of average gains instead of total points -- points tilts the results dramatically toward the present, with Dow Inflation being very obvious -- we see that the Father's World returned a total of 253% (adding all the average gains and losses) and the Mother's World returned a total of -3.7% from 1928-2015.

There is no debunking here. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (as it is, yes, we can quibble about this change in composition also) shows a very clear GROWING SEASON (December to June) and a quite clear REST SEASON (June to December).

Could one "Sell in May and Go Away"? Yes, one might. In June. One could invest December to June and then park one's resources in a decent interest-bearing investment from June to December.

Remember, the Bear Cycle (when the Bear goes into his cave to hybernate) is a rest cycle that only looks like apocalypse. It is a hybernation cycle, not an extinction cycle.

The FED is so terrified of deflation that it has risked the destruction of our currency to try to avoid it. But the Bear Market Cycle is the Rest Cycle, a consolidation, not an apocalypse. The dark descent, the Night-Cycle, is not the end of the world, it is the regeneration of the world. Seeds need to darkness in order to germinate. Our fear of deflation comes from a lack of understanding. The material world is not the real world, in the sense of 'the only real world'. If the material world decays and breaks that does not mean the breaking is permanent. It is a stage in the recovery or the regeneration process. This understanding is Wisdom, which comes from the Moon, from the Female Principle. The Male Principle's Active Intelligence is only part of the process. The Female Principle's less Active Intelligence (Reason) is the bridge over Hell, the bridge connecting the East to the West. We need both. We need both the Father's World and the Mother's World. We need both the Day-Cycle of literal, vertical growth and the Night-Cycle of horizontal, dream growth -- the world of Ideas precedes the world of Practical Manipulation of those Seed-Ideas into a Global Conjunction of Fruit-Ideals.

In 2019 we will all witness the transition from the Moon back into the Sun, the Mother back into the Father. In 1983, the ATONEMENT WITH THE FATHER suggested the appearance of Ronald Reagan as the returned Father Figure. In 2019, the RE-ATONEMENT WITH THE FATHER suggests the re-enthronement of the Father Figure. This appears to be King Donald Trump.

The world nearly was destroyed in 1983 as the great Sun Alliance of Western Civilization came within whiskers of World War III (the queen of England even had written and practiced delivering the announcement to her people of the beginning of World War III).

www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-23518587

What kept this war from happening? The intransigence of our European allies -- especially Germany and France. We will have the same impetus to World War when/if King Donald ascends the throne in 2019. We need to understand that the energy quotient of the World Destroyer peaks in 2019, and begins to dissipate. We let the air out of, in other world. In 1983, Global Communism was on the march, in Asia and in central and Latin America, in Europe and in America. But that was the end of its energy quotient. Global Feminism peaked in 1983. Dissipation of Global Communism became complete with the destruction of the Berlin Wall.

Islam, as a form of World Destruction, will peak in 2019. Then it will begin to break down, weaken. Islam is a Moon Religion. Christianity is a Sun Religion. Western Christianity will see its darkest moment in 2019 (remember Herod seeking to kill out all the male children; Herod is a kind of symbolic Islamic Terrorism) -- and 2019 is a point of rebirth of the West and the Power of the Sun.

This is the first part of my Seasonality issues. I have also broken the Dow into the Four Seasons, to see which seasons are most profitable. I think you will enjoy what I discovered there also.

We do not need to be afraid. We have spiritual guides who are assisting us.

Additional disclosure: SEASONALITY IN THE DOW -- ORIGINAL RESEARCH

>>>>> Scroll down to view and make comments <<<<<<

Click here for Historical Investing Post Listing










Make a Comment

Econintersect wants your comments, data and opinion on the articles posted.  As the internet is a "war zone" of trolls, hackers and spammers - Econintersect must balance its defences against ease of commenting.  We have joined with Livefyre to manage our comment streams.

To comment, using Livefyre just click the "Sign In" button at the top-left corner of the comment box below. You can create a commenting account using your favorite social network such as Twitter, Facebook, Google+, LinkedIn or Open ID - or open a Livefyre account using your email address.



You can also comment using Facebook directly using he comment block below.





Econintersect Investing


search_box

Print this page or create a PDF file of this page
Print Friendly and PDF


The growing use of ad blocking software is creating a shortfall in covering our fixed expenses. Please consider a donation to Econintersect to allow continuing output of quality and balanced financial and economic news and analysis.


Take a look at what is going on inside of Econintersect.com
Main Home
Analysis Blog
Energy and Falling Productivity
Reinhard Selten: Pioneering Analyst of Rationality and Human Behaviour
News Blog
Early Headlines: Japan Needs Fed Hike, Mexico Tanker Ablaze, 1.5C Limit Within 10 Yrs, Africa's Growth Problems, Did US Destroy Syria Truce?, Merkel: No Help For DB And More
Americans Wary Of Drone Delivery
Britain's Wealthiest Households
What Next In The South China Sea
The Dollar - Gold Relationship
Almost Half Of Rape Cases End Without A Conviction
People With 'Obesity Gene' Can Still Lose Weight
The World's Most Generous Countries In 2016
What We Read Today 24 September 2016
Is The Butterfly Effect Real
August 2016 Philly Fed Coincident Index Shows Continuing Slowing Of Economic Rate of Growth
Global Bonds: Why Our Analyst Says Things Just Got "Monumental"
Trends In Expenditures By US Colleges And Universities, 1987-2013
Investing Blog
The Week Ahead: How Will Election News Impact The Market?
How To Protect Your Money Against Negative Interest Rates
Opinion Blog
There's No Wall Between The Fed And Banco De Mexico
The Setting Sun: Japan Faces Monetary Exhaustion
Precious Metals Blog
War On Cash Turns To $20, $50, And $100 Bills
Live Markets
23Sep2016 Market Close: US Indexes Close Lower As Crude Prices Slip, Fed Lowers Economic Growth Prospects, Indicators Melting Into Bearish Territory
Amazon Books & More






.... and keep up with economic news using our dynamic economic newspapers with the largest international coverage on the internet
Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government



Crowdfunding ....






























 navigate econintersect.com

Blogs

Analysis Blog
News Blog
Investing Blog
Opinion Blog
Precious Metals Blog
Markets Blog
Video of the Day
Weather

Newspapers

Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government
     

RSS Feeds / Social Media

Combined Econintersect Feed
Google+
Facebook
Twitter
Digg

Free Newsletter

Marketplace - Books & More

Economic Forecast

Content Contribution

Contact

About

  Top Economics Site

Investing.com Contributor TalkMarkets Contributor Finance Blogs Free PageRank Checker Active Search Results Google+

This Web Page by Steven Hansen ---- Copyright 2010 - 2016 Econintersect LLC - all rights reserved