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posted on 16 March 2016

Special Update 15 March 2016: Tactical SP Sector Rotation Portfolio Model

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Special Update March 15, 2016 Tactical S&P Sector Rotation Portfolio Model

The MTI crossed above its moving average on February 25, generating a bear market rally buy signal. As noted in the Weekly Technical Review on February 25, I allocated a 25% long position in the Utilities ETF (XLU) at $47.28, and a 25% long position in the Consumer Staples ETF (XLP) at $51.65. The balance (50.0%) is in cash.

buy.sell.sign.380x200

I am selling the 25% position in the Utilities ETF (XLU) at $48.23, and the 25% position in the Consumer Staples ETF (XLP) at $52.52 at 9:52am pst. The portfolio will now be 100% in cash.

Review

The Major Trend Indicator generated a bear market signal on January 6, when the S&P closed below 1993, and was confirmed on January 14. The Tactical Sector Rotation program went 100% short when the S&P closed at 1990.26 on January 6. The short position was reduced to 50% on February 8 when the S&P closed at 1853, further lowered to 25% early on February 24 as the S&P traded under 1895, and closed on February 25 when the S&P was 1942. The S&P's average 'cover' price on the short trade was 1885.75. The short trade earned 5.2%.

Note: Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

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