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posted on 28 January 2018

Early-Stage Mortgage Delinquencies Elevated Post Hurricanes

from CoreLogic

-- this post authored by Molly Boesel

In October 2017, 5.1 percent of home mortgages were in some stage of delinquency, down from 5.2 percent a year earlier and the lowest for any October since 2006, when it was 4.5 percent, according to the latest CoreLogic Loan Performance Insights Report. The measure includes all home loans 30 days or more past due, including those in foreclosure. For the month of October, the share of delinquent mortgages was highest - 11.5 percent - in October 2010.

The foreclosure inventory rate, meaning the share of mortgages in some stage of the foreclosure process, was 0.6 percent in October 2017, down from 0.8 percent a year earlier. The foreclosure rate is back to the pre-crisis level of 0.6 percent.

The share of mortgages that were 30 to 59 days past due - considered “early-stage" delinquencies - was 2.3 percent in October 2017, up from 2.2 percent in October 2016. This increase over a year ago reflects the impact of the hurricanes in Texas, Florida, and Puerto Rico. The share of mortgages 60 to 89 days past due was 0.9 percent in October 2017, up from 0.7 percent in October 2016.

In addition to delinquency rates, CoreLogic tracks the rate at which mortgages transition from one stage of delinquency to the next, such as going from being current to 30 days past due. Figure 1 shows that while the current- to 30-day transition rate remained well below housing crisis levels in October, it increased above recent months, most likely due to the hurricanes. The October 2017 current- to 30-day rate was 1.1 percent, up from 1 percent in October 2016. The 30- to 60-day transition rate was 21.4 percent in October 2017, up from 17.3 percent in October 2016, while the 60- to 90-day transition rate was 28.9 percent this October, unchanged from a year earlier.

Figure 2 shows the states with the highest and lowest rate of mortgages in some stage of delinquency. In October 2017 that rate was highest in Florida - 9.7 percent - and North Dakota had the lowest rate at 2 percent. Florida and Texas jumped into the top five list in October due to effects from the late summer 2017 hurricanes. The delinquency rate in Florida increased from 6.4 percent in October 2016 to 9.7 percent in October 2017, and the delinquency rate in Texas increased from 5.5 percent in October 2016 to 6.8 percent in October 2017.

Figure 3 shows the 30-plus-day past-due rate for the 10 largest metro areas[1]. The impact of the hurricanes is also evident in the metro-level numbers. That rate was highest - 12.5 percent - in the Miami metro area and lowest - 1.7 percent - in San Francisco. Both Miami and Houston saw large increases in delinquency rates from a year ago. The delinquency rate in Miami rose from 7.6 percent in October 2016 to 12.5 percent in October 2017, and the delinquency rate in Houston rose from 5.8 percent in October 2016 to 10.9 percent in October 2017.


[1] Metro areas used in this report are the ten most populous Core Based Statistical Areas.

© 2018 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved.


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