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posted on 26 November 2017

Real-time Data Inaccuracies Pose Challenges To Gauging The Oil Market

from the Dallas Fed

-- this post authored by Justin J. Lee and Jesse Thompson

There is no direct measurement of global crude oil inventory outside of domestic stocks estimates prepared by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).

The implied change in global petroleum inventories (or stocks) is often derived from the difference between estimated global daily production and consumption.

This is an indicator of the extent to which the market anticipates production surplus or shortage. Often, initially released production and consumption data are revised. These changes frequently send conflicting signals of surplus or shortage, potentially contributing to inefficient pricing.

Market participants use this and other data to assess profitability of futures or equity. Moreover, they look closely at consumption figures, which tend to be initially less reliable than those depicting production.

[click on image below to continue reading]

Source research/eclett/2017/el1713.pdf

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