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posted on 23 October 2017

Global And National Shocks Explain A Large Share Of State Job Growth

from the Dallas Fed

-- this post authored by Alexander Chudik, Janet Koech and Mark A. Wynne

Global and U.S. national shocks on average appear to equally explain more than half of the fluctuations in state employment growth, an important measure of assessing real economic activity. The overall assessment, however, conceals a wide variation among states.

Employment growth is a widely used and closely watched indicator of real economic activity at the state level. Booms are associated with rapid employment growth, while recessions are associated with job losses.

Employment growth in Texas, for example, has run at almost twice the average rate of growth in the United States as a whole since 1990. During the 2007 - 09 recession, job losses in Texas were less than the national average.

There is considerable variation in the rate of job gains and losses across the 50 states during the business cycle (Chart 1). The gap between states with the most job increases and the least, as measured by year-over-year employment growth, averaged 8.3 percentage points from 1980 through 2016. These variations can contribute to large differences in state unemployment rates.

[click on image below to continue reading]

Source documents/ research/eclett/ 2017/el1710.pdf

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