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posted on 12 August 2017

Early Headlines: 4% GDP Forecast, Long-Term Unemployment, Soaring Euro, Germany's Prosperity Illusion, Why N. Korea Is Important, And More

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Early Bird Headlines 12 August 2017

Econintersect: Here are some of the headlines we found to help you start your day. For more headlines see our afternoon feature for GEI members, What We Read Today, which has many more headlines and a number of article discussions to keep you abreast of what we have found interesting.

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U.S.

  1. Trump said he was just joking when he thanked Russian President Vladimir Putin for kicking out U.S. diplomats.
  2. He suggested U.S. military involvement in Venezuela.
  3. He dismissed the possibility that Pence would mount a separate campaign for president in 2020.
  4. Trump kept bashing Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), despite warnings from other Republicans that the sparring could hurt his agenda on Capitol Hill.
  5. He is still hoping for health-care reform, despite its dramatic failure in the Senate.
  6. He is still evaluating the U.S. role in Afghanistan.
  7. Trump is loving his new chief of staff, John F. Kelly, a retired Marine general.
  8. He's excited to return home to Trump Tower on Sunday for the first time since becoming president.
  • ‘We’ve Had Enough’: Conservatives Relish the ‘Fury’ in Trump’s Talk (The New York Times) Criticism of Mr. Trump’s emphatic rhetoric came this week from foreign leaders, policy experts, some Washington Republicans, including Senator John McCain of Arizona, and others, who called it a break with decades of carefully measured American diplomatic language in dealing with the volatile situation on the Korean Peninsula. However, what many grass-roots American conservatives heard was not a brash provocation, but a brave and unequivocal calling out of a bully.
  • Atlanta Fed Forecast - 4% GDP Growth (The Daily Shot) The first estimate of the Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast for the third quarter GDP is a whopping 4%.

  • Nevada Parole Board Unaware of O.J. Simpson’s Old Conviction (The New York Times) During the hearing on July 20, members of the Nevada Board of Parole Commissioners said that before his 2008 conviction for the robbery in a hotel in Las Vegas, Mr. Simpson had no history of a criminal conviction. That was incorrect. In 1989, he pleaded no contest in Los Angeles to misdemeanor battery of Ms. Nicole Brown Simpson, who was then his wife. Mr. Simpson was acquitted in 1995 of the murders of his former wife Nicole Brown Simpson and Ronald Goldman, in the most-watched trial in American history.
  • Despite Continued Job Growth, Long-Term Unemployment Persists (The Century Foundation) Hat tip to Roger Erickson. On the face of it, the unemployment rate measure has vastly improved, so much so that some are some are saying that the nation is approaching full employment. That’s clearly not the case as just 78.7% of prime age workers (24 - 54) are employed, compared to 80.3% and 81.9% at the peak of the last two recoveries in January 2007 and April 2001, respectively.

But the hidden story is the unprecedented levels of long-term unemployment. The average unemployed person is out of work for 24.9 weeks, compared to an average duration of 12.8 weeks the last time the unemployment rate was at 4.3 percent, in March 2001. The duration of unemployment makes all the difference. During short spells of unemployment, workers are able to rely on their savings and unemployment, while during long spells serious deprivation sets in.

lt.unemployment.1976.2017

EU

  • The Joys of ECB Procrastination (Bloomberg Businessweek) The dollar has been on its worst run against the euro since 2011. That is a headache for the European Central Bank's efforts to stoke economic growth and get inflation back to its target -- and it's leaving a lot of investors in a vulnerable position.

Germany

North Korea

  • 3 maps that explain North Korea's strategy (Business Insider) Korea is a peninsula jutting southward from Manchuria surrounded by the Yellow and Japan seas. It shares an 880-mile border with China and has a 30-mile frontier with Russia. Korea's northeastern border is about 70 miles from Vladivostok, Russia's major eastern port. The southeast corner juts to within 100 miles of Japan to its south, and the peninsula's southwest shore angles westward only about 300 miles from Shanghai. This article explains why North Korea as a buffer is important to all its neighbors but the country as a viable economy is wanted by no one.

  • North Koreans rallied at Kim Il Sung Square in Pyongyang on Wednesday
  • Photos showed citizens holding propaganda and waving their fists in the air
  • Footage shows thousands of North Korean workers dressed in white shirts as they marched through the square brandishing flags
  • The elite class, who were dressed in black, applauded the workers as they rallied
  • It came after a strict round of sanctions were passed by the United Nations security council over the weekend
  • North Korea also officially dismissed Donald Trump's threats of 'fire and fury'

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