econintersect.com
       
  

FREE NEWSLETTER: Econintersect sends a nightly newsletter highlighting news events of the day, and providing a summary of new articles posted on the website. Econintersect will not sell or pass your email address to others per our privacy policy. You can cancel this subscription at any time by selecting the unsubscribing link in the footer of each email.



posted on 15 April 2017

Will My Life Be Getting Better?

Written by

At the end of every month, I take stock of the economic releases that month and try to quantify the affects on the median person in the USA. My forecasts over the past two years has been very weak growth.


Please share this article - Go to very top of page, right hand side for social media buttons.


Overall the main street economy has strengthened over the last five months (relative to the previous 5 months) but that does not mean the improvement is noticeable on Main Street. The chart below is from our economic forecast which looks at elements which affect Main Street. You will note that our view is that the Main Street economy remains near the lower boundary of values seen since the end of the Great Recession.

One good way to measure the goods consumption end of the economy uses rail data - which is now doing better than it did last year - but remains below the levels seen in 2015.

Unfortunately a major contributor to rail movements is coal - which should be removed as coal consumption is not economically intuitive. The red line on the graph below removes coal and grain - and shows growth relative to the rolling averages one year ago.

Coal production has been growing recently and there are more coal rail movements. Currently the intuitive economic portions of rail remain below the levels of last year even though total rail movements are above the levels of one year ago.

Summing It Up

As discussed in last week's post - GDP is not properly capturing the economy. If people are buying a higher percentage of used goods than they did in the last century - rail movements too would be understating the economy. But the real question is whether the USA will improve enough to be noticed?

Many of the non-monetary trend lines are improving (but are not relatively strong). I do not trust the monetary measures as they need to be inflation adjusted (and everyone sees a different inflation impact). Many others have found "religion" and are choosing a more modest lifestyle than was enjoyed in the last century.

What makes economic measurement difficult is that there is such a divergence of views of what is economically important. Measuring money flows (like GDP components) is not important to the average Joe. - with the majority asking a simple question - "will my life be getting better". Is there any metric to measure quality of life?

Other Economic News this Week:

The Econintersect Economic Index for April 2017 improvement trend continues although the value remains in the territory of weak growth. The index remains below the median levels seen since the end of the Great Recession. Six-month employment growth forecast indicates modest improvement in the rate of growth.

Bankruptcies this Week from bankruptcydata.com: Ciber, Unilife

Weekly Economic Release Scorecard:

>>>>> Scroll down to view and make comments <<<<<<

Click here for Historical News Post Listing










Make a Comment

Econintersect wants your comments, data and opinion on the articles posted. You can also comment using Facebook directly using he comment block below.




Econintersect Contributors


search_box

Print this page or create a PDF file of this page
Print Friendly and PDF


The growing use of ad blocking software is creating a shortfall in covering our fixed expenses. Please consider a donation to Econintersect to allow continuing output of quality and balanced financial and economic news and analysis.


Take a look at what is going on inside of Econintersect.com
Main Home
Analysis Blog
Why Long-Run Theories of Profit and Accumulation Fall Short
Brexit - Who Wins and Loses
News Blog
What Would A Civilization 1 Billion Years Older Than Us Be Like
Understanding The Downward Trend In Labor Income Shares
Why Renegotiating NAFTA Could Disrupt Supply Chains
Public Relations Nightmares
Catch Me If You Can
U.S. Consumer Debt Rises Overall, Housing Debt Drops
Infographic Of The Day: Graphene Is The Game-Changing Material Of The Future
Early Headlines: CB Bal. Sheets Still Growing, GOP Doing Too Much, May Threw Ulster Under Bus, French Election, China Vs. Pollution, Venzuela Gave To Trump Inaug., And More
NOAA and JAMSTEC Issue Seasonal Updates - Winter in Doubt
Over 200,000 People Have Been Displaced From Mosul
Heat From The Atlantic Ocean Is Melting Arctic Sea Ice Further Eastwards Than Ever Before
Number Of Americans Without Healthcare Insurance Has Dropped
What We Read Today 22 April 2017
Investing Blog
The Week Ahead: Build That Wall!
How To Trade Earnings Announcements
Opinion Blog
What Does The Strong Q1 Growth Mean For China?
Marx, Orwell And State-Cartel Socialism
Precious Metals Blog
Three Gold Plays For The New Era Of Chaos
Live Markets
21Apr2017 Market Close: US Stocks Slipped Moderately, WTI Crude Slips On Renewed Concerns Of Increasing U.S. Production, Industrial Businesses' Cash Outflows Concern Investors
Amazon Books & More






.... and keep up with economic news using our dynamic economic newspapers with the largest international coverage on the internet
Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government































 navigate econintersect.com

Blogs

Analysis Blog
News Blog
Investing Blog
Opinion Blog
Precious Metals Blog
Markets Blog
Video of the Day
Weather

Newspapers

Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government
     

RSS Feeds / Social Media

Combined Econintersect Feed
Google+
Facebook
Twitter
Digg

Free Newsletter

Marketplace - Books & More

Economic Forecast

Content Contribution

Contact

About

  Top Economics Site

Investing.com Contributor TalkMarkets Contributor Finance Blogs Free PageRank Checker Active Search Results Google+

This Web Page by Steven Hansen ---- Copyright 2010 - 2017 Econintersect LLC - all rights reserved