econintersect .com

FREE NEWSLETTER: Econintersect sends a nightly newsletter highlighting news events of the day, and providing a summary of new articles posted on the website. Econintersect will not sell or pass your email address to others per our privacy policy. You can cancel this subscription at any time by selecting the unsubscribing link in the footer of each email.

posted on 18 March 2017

Fed Not Crying Wolf

from Lakshman Achuthan, Co-Founder and Chief Operations Officer of ECRI

In early February, following the last Fed statement, March rate hike probabilities fell to just 15%, with the markets expecting only two rate hikes in 2017. In contrast, we explained why faster rate hikes were likely and declared in an ECRI report: “The Fed will be spurred to hike rates more than most believe. That is the inescapable logic of the current state of the economic cycle."

Today, a March rate hike is seen as a virtual lock, with three or four rate hikes this year considered the most likely scenario (chart), meaning that expectations have shifted dramatically toward ECRI’s view. That cyclical perspective has proved to be just as prescient this year as it was last year, when the Fed failed to deliver on its rate hike promises, following ECRI’s declaration that the “Fed’s rate hike plans are on a collision course with the economic cycle."

As always, ECRI’s forecasts have been rooted in its analysis of cyclical forces, based on its leading indexes of economic growth and inflation. For a more detailed look into our Fed rate hike outlook, please see this excerpt from February’s U.S. Essentials report.

>>>>> Scroll down to view and make comments <<<<<<

Click here for Historical News Post Listing

Make a Comment

Econintersect wants your comments, data and opinion on the articles posted. You can also comment using Facebook directly using he comment block below.

Econintersect Contributors

Print this page or create a PDF file of this page
Print Friendly and PDF

The growing use of ad blocking software is creating a shortfall in covering our fixed expenses. Please consider a donation to Econintersect to allow continuing output of quality and balanced financial and economic news and analysis.

Keep up with economic news using our dynamic economic newspapers with the largest international coverage on the internet
Asia / Pacific
Middle East / Africa
USA Government

 navigate econintersect .com


Analysis Blog
News Blog
Investing Blog
Opinion Blog
Precious Metals Blog
Markets Blog
Video of the Day


Asia / Pacific
Middle East / Africa
USA Government

RSS Feeds / Social Media

Combined Econintersect Feed

Free Newsletter

Marketplace - Books & More

Economic Forecast

Content Contribution



  Top Economics Site Contributor TalkMarkets Contributor Finance Blogs Free PageRank Checker Active Search Results Google+

This Web Page by Steven Hansen ---- Copyright 2010 - 2018 Econintersect LLC - all rights reserved