econintersect.com
       
  

FREE NEWSLETTER: Econintersect sends a nightly newsletter highlighting news events of the day, and providing a summary of new articles posted on the website. Econintersect will not sell or pass your email address to others per our privacy policy. You can cancel this subscription at any time by selecting the unsubscribing link in the footer of each email.



posted on 24 January 2017

How Bond Investors Were Fooled Twice

from Elliott Wave International

Most investors, including large groups of professional money managers, extrapolate financial trends into the future. So they are often completely caught off guard when a trend changes. The history of financial markets is full of such instances.

*********

Right now, let's focus on bonds. As you look at this chart from our July 11, 2016 Short Term Update, keep in mind that Large Speculators represent the trend followers who are usually caught off guard at important price junctures. Conversely, the Commercials routinely take the opposite side of the trade.

The sentiment backdrop for [30-year U.S T-bond prices] is strongly bearish for prices. We continue to point out the extremes that remain in place in the Commitment of Traders data (shown above). In overnight trading last night, prices nudged up to 177^11.0 and then reversed lower during the day session. A decline below 173^15.0 would indicate that prices have reversed their rising trend and a larger selloff is underway.

The high of 177^11.0 remained intact, and as you probably know, prices careened below 173^15.0 as a large selloff took bonds sharply lower and interest rates rose.

Fast forward five months.

Our Dec. 5, 2016 Short Term Update showed subscribers that the price and sentiment picture had changed:

Tonight's chart shows the weekly pattern in [30-year U.S. T-bond futures], which have made a low at 148^11.0 so far (Dec. 1). ... After reaching a 21-year record extreme in conjunction with the wave (5) July peak, both the Large Speculators and Commercials have completely reversed their positions. ... A countertrend rally is fast approaching.

Just 10 days later, on Dec. 15, 30-year U.S. Treasury bond prices declined to 147^04.0, and since then, the expected rally has started.

This Jan. 6, 2017 Short Term Update chart tells the story:

[U.S. 30-year T-bond futures] pushed to 153^09.0 early this morning, just shy of filling the open gap at 153^25.0 from November 28.

Investors should now be keeping a close watch on the evolving market action. We suggest focusing on the Elliott wave price pattern and time-tested sentiment measures.


Markets all around the world are at a critical juncture -- you must see this free report now.

This is the fifth year EWI has created our annual State of the Global Markets Report. And since many markets around the world are at a critical juncture, this may be the most-timely edition of the State of the Global Markets Report yet!

It comes right out of the pages of their paid publications. For a limited time, you can see this report at no cost.

Get your 21-page State of the Global Markets Report -- 2017 Edition now.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline How Bond Investors Were Fooled Twice.

>>>>> Scroll down to view and make comments <<<<<<

Click here for Historical News Post Listing










Make a Comment

Econintersect wants your comments, data and opinion on the articles posted.  As the internet is a "war zone" of trolls, hackers and spammers - Econintersect must balance its defences against ease of commenting.  We have joined with Livefyre to manage our comment streams.

To comment, using Livefyre just click the "Sign In" button at the top-left corner of the comment box below. You can create a commenting account using your favorite social network such as Twitter, Facebook, Google+, LinkedIn or Open ID - or open a Livefyre account using your email address.



You can also comment using Facebook directly using he comment block below.





Econintersect Contributors


search_box

Print this page or create a PDF file of this page
Print Friendly and PDF


The growing use of ad blocking software is creating a shortfall in covering our fixed expenses. Please consider a donation to Econintersect to allow continuing output of quality and balanced financial and economic news and analysis.


Take a look at what is going on inside of Econintersect.com
Main Home
Analysis Blog
Is Free Trade Harming the Economy?
Bank of England Endorses Post-Keynesian Endogenous Money Theory
News Blog
Early Headlines: Asia Stocks Up, Dollar, Oil Up, Gold Down, Investors Bet Higher Oil, Kraft-Unilever Deal Off, French Election Turmoil, Trump Worries Germans More Than Putin, Japan Imports Surge And More
Most Read Articles Last Week Ending 18 February
Living Through The Greek Crisis: An Anthropologist Reports From Thessaly
ITunes Still Popular Among U.S. Music Lovers
President Trump, You Need A Lesson In Autism - Here It Is
Defense Budgets Are Surging In The Baltic States
What We Read Today 19 February 2017
Half Of Small Businesses Say Regulations Are A Problem
Historical Photos In Color
Total Household Debt Nears 2008 Peak But Debt Picture Looks Much Different
Parental Proximity And The Earnings Consequences Of Job Loss
The Evolution Of Home Equity Ownership - Part Two Of Five
How To Easily ID Support And Resistance On Your Charts
Investing Blog
Bulls Keep Running, But . . .
The Week Ahead: Trump And The Business Cycle
Opinion Blog
Charity Is Not How We Solve Poverty
At A Turning Point In US History, Shepard Smith Denounces Trump
Precious Metals Blog
The Best Gold Stock To Buy Right Now
Live Markets
17Feb2017 Market Close: US Markets Close In The Green Surprising The Bearish Analysts, Monday Markets Will Be Closed For Presidents Day Holiday
Amazon Books & More






.... and keep up with economic news using our dynamic economic newspapers with the largest international coverage on the internet
Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government





























 navigate econintersect.com

Blogs

Analysis Blog
News Blog
Investing Blog
Opinion Blog
Precious Metals Blog
Markets Blog
Video of the Day
Weather

Newspapers

Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government
     

RSS Feeds / Social Media

Combined Econintersect Feed
Google+
Facebook
Twitter
Digg

Free Newsletter

Marketplace - Books & More

Economic Forecast

Content Contribution

Contact

About

  Top Economics Site

Investing.com Contributor TalkMarkets Contributor Finance Blogs Free PageRank Checker Active Search Results Google+

This Web Page by Steven Hansen ---- Copyright 2010 - 2017 Econintersect LLC - all rights reserved