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posted on 21 January 2017

Disentangling Cyclical From Structural

from Lakshman Achuthan, Co-Founder and Chief Operations Officer of ECRI

It has long been ECRI's view that confusion between longer-term structural shifts, and shorter-term cyclical ebbs and flows in economic growth was (and still is) a key driver behind policy errors since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC).

On January 6th I gave a talk in Hong Kong titled, "Disentangling Cyclical from Structural".

That topic is the focus of a recent ECRI paper Cyclical Misconceptions Driving Policy Mistakes: Keys to the Productivity Puzzle. The charts that I'd like to discuss today help illustrate that structural backdrop, and also the cyclical shifts currently underway, so that the distinction between structural an cyclical developments is clear.

[click on image below to continue reading]

Source: 1701_ECRI_Hong-Kong.pdf

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