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posted on 08 November 2016

Early Headlines: Asia Stocks Mostly Up, Oil Demand Forecast Up, Trump Chances Fading, Senate Forecast 50:50, Filipinos Still Like America, China Trade Surplus Weakens And More

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Early Bird Headlines 08 November 2016

Econintersect: Here are some of the headlines we found to help you start your day. For more headlines see our afternoon feature for GEI members, What We Read Today, which has many more headlines and a number of article discussions to keep you abreast of what we have found interesting.

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Global

  • Asian markets close mostly higher ahead of US election day (CNBC) Most Asian bourses eked out modest gains Tuesday after oscillating between positive and negative territory, as the world's most closely watched election drew near. Market participants noted nervousness ahead of the U.S. presidential vote that has dominated global headlines. "Traders were apprehensive in Asia Pacific because of an underlying fear of the presidential outcome," said Stephen Innes, senior trader at Oanda. Aside from election jitters, China's trade figures and Australia's NAB business survey also dampened risk sentiment.

asia.pac.2016.nov.08

  • OPEC Raises Oil-Demand Forecast on Outlook for Cheaper Crude (Bloomberg) OPEC raised its forecast for global oil demand next year and through the end of the decade, anticipating that cheaper crude will spur consumption even as economic growth slows. Demand will reach 95.3 million barrels a day in 2017, according to the producer group’s annual World Oil Outlook report released Tuesday. That’s an increase of 300,000 barrels a day from last year’s forecast. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries also raised its outlook for oil use in 2018, 2019 and 2020, when it sees demand reaching 98.3 million barrels a day, or 900,000 more than the group projected in its previous annual outlook. OPEC cut its estimates for crude prices by $20 a barrel for each year from 2016 to 2020, compared with its previous outlook. The group assumes crude will average $40 a barrel in 2016, and it raised its projected price by $5 a barrel in each of the following years through 2020. Brent has averaged about $44 a barrel so far this year.

U.S.

  • U.S. top court may curb presidential appointment powers (Reuters) Supreme Court justices, hearing a dispute over presidential powers a day before the U.S. election, indicated on Monday they might curb a president's authority to staff top administration posts in a case involving the National Labor Relations Board. The eight justices heard an hour-long argument in a 2014 legal challenge brought by Arizona-based private ambulance company SW General Inc to President Barack Obama's temporary appointment of Lafe Solomon in 2011 as NLRB general counsel. Obama also nominated Solomon to fill the position permanently, a move that required U.S. Senate approval. The company, a subsidiary of Envision Healthcare Holdings Inc, challenged Solomon's appointment after the labor board found SW General had committed an unfair labor practice by discontinuing bonus payments for long-term employees. If SW General wins, the NLRB order would be thrown out because of Solomon's participation. Solomon filled in for former general counsel Ronald Meisburg, who resigned in 2010. Obama withdrew Solomon's nomination after it stalled for more than two years. The Senate ultimately confirmed Richard Griffin to the post in 2013.

  • Patrick Caddell: The real election surprise? The uprising of the American people (Fox News) Hat tip William Kurtz. Democratic pollster Patrick Caddell says the significance of Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump is not recognized by most in media, and, indeed, many in politics. (Econintersect: The two leading non-establishment candidates - Trump and Sanders - got 2.5 million more primary votes between them than the two leading establishment candidates - Cruz and Clinton - if you can actually call Cruz an establishment guy.) Caddell:

For more than two years the American people, in a great majority, from left to right, have been in revolt against the political class and the financial elites in America. It is a revolt with historic parallels, most closely resembling the Jacksonian revolution of the 1820s. It is an uprising. It is a peaceful uprising of a people who see a country in decline and see nothing but failure in the performance of their leadership institutions. And they have signaled their intent to take back their country and to reclaim their sovereignty.

Unfortunately, the analysts, the pollsters and most importantly the commentariat of the political class have never understood, and in fact are psychologically incapable of understanding what is happening. And for the entire cycle of this presidential campaign they have failed to grasp what was happening before their eyes - for it runs counter to everything they believe about themselves.

  • Popular-vote winner might not win Electoral College (Tribune Washington Bureau) The chance is slim, but Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump could win the popular vote nationwide but lose the Electoral College vote and the presidency. That’s because the election is not decided by the nationwide popular vote. It’s decided by electoral votes, with all of the votes for most states awarded to the winner of the popular vote in that state. (Maine and Nebraska award electoral votes proportionately.) That happened 16 years ago in the disputed contest between Democrat Al Gore and Republican George W. Bush. Gore, the vice president at the time, won the popular vote, beat Bush nationwide by about 550,000 votes. But he was five electoral votes short of the 270 needed to be elected. Bush won the presidency. Econintersect: In an article we will post this week, it will be shown that it is theoretically possible for a candidate in a 2-way race to lose the electoral college vote while garnering 54% of the popular vote. With typical voter turnout, that could amount to a loss with as much as an 11 or 12 million popular vote margin.

  • Early Results in Key States to Hint at Election Outcome (The Wall Street Journal) For anxious election-watchers on Tuesday evening, early returns from several East Coast states will offer clues to how the night might unfold. Here are some of the first states to watch as results come in.

What would make Hillary Clinton nervous: President Barack Obama won Virginia twice, and opinion surveys have consistently found Mrs. Clinton leading there. But Virginia could look like a nail-biter early in the evening, before results are tabulated from the heavily populated northern part of the state that tends to favor Democrats.

What would make Donald Trump nervous: Polls also close at 7 p.m. in Georgia. The state hasn’t backed a Democrat since 1992, but several recent surveys have shown Mrs. Clinton within a point or two of Mr. Trump. If the results look close, it could be a sign that African-American voters, who are expected to make up nearly one-third of Georgia’s electorate, are coming out in force there and across the country for Mrs. Clinton. Weak turnout among African-Americans could signal problems for Mrs. Clinton in other states where those voters are crucial to victory, such as Pennsylvania and Michigan.

  • Who will win the presidency? (FiveThirtyEight) The forecast is slowly slipping away from Donald Trump, although he clearly could finish closer than the latest most probable outcome indicates. This model now only has a slightly better than 1-in-4 chance that he can win.

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  • Who will win the Senate? (FiveThirtyEight) After having a forecast advantage of gaining a senate majority for most of the campaign, the forecast is now for a tie with 50 seats for each party after the election. Thus, tie votes along party line will be decided by the Vide President and Democrats would hold the majority positions in the new chamber.

538.senate.map.2016.nov.07

538.senate.odds.history.2016.nov.07

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UK

Philippines

  • Anxiety in Manila as Duterte Blasts U.S., Embraces China (Bloomberg) During long hours stuck in Manila’s choking traffic, taxi driver Maning Yabut constantly hears about the anxieties of Filipinos from all walks of life. These days, the talk is all about whether President Rodrigo Duterte’s anti-U.S. outbursts are good for the Philippines. Particularly concerned, he said, are those with close links to America, such as the call-center workers at the heart of the $20-billion business-process outsourcing industry. Maning’s own sister moved to the U.S. and is now part of the 3.5 million-strong Filipino-American community there.

Japan

  • Japan ratifies Paris Agreement after the pact enters into force (Reuters) Japan on Tuesday ratified the 2015 Paris Climate Change Agreement to cut emissions and prevent climate change, four days after the global pact officially entered into force. The agreement seeks to wean the world economy off fossil fuels in the second half of the century, limiting the rise in average world temperatures to "well below" 2.0 degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) above preindustrial times. The delay in ratification could limit Japan's ability to influence negotiations on the finer details of the agreement. Those talks were set to formally begin during the COP-22 meeting in Morocco that started on Monday.

China

  • China's October exports down 3.2 pct, imports up 3.2 pct (Xinhuanet) China's exports in yuan-denominated terms declined less than previous months to fall 3.2% year on year in October, while imports picked up steam by increasing 3.2%, customs data showed on Tuesday. Foreign trade volume reached 325.2 billion yuan (47.97 billion U.S. dollars) in October. Econintersect: The increasing import value, especially in the face of a declining yuan, indicates continued strength in the domestic economy.

Bolivia

  • We must be prepared for the impact of Bolivia’s fast-melting glaciers (Independent) Bolivia’s glaciers have shrunk by more than 40% in the past few decades. This puts further pressure on an already stressed water supply, while the meltwater lakes left behind risk collapsing in sudden and catastrophic outburst floods. That’s the conclusion of a new study of the country’s glaciers.

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