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posted on 03 November 2016

Early Headlines: Cubs Win Series, Asia Stocks Mixed, Oil Bounces, Oil Could Break $40, Federal Election Cost $7B, Trump Gains, Clinton Still Leads, Economic Trends Of Populism And More

Written by Econintersect

Early Bird Headlines 03 November 2016

Econintersect: Here are some of the headlines we found to help you start your day. For more headlines see our afternoon feature for GEI members, What We Read Today, which has many more headlines and a number of article discussions to keep you abreast of what we have found interesting.

early-bird-301-180

Global

"Asia markets [saw] a technical rebound, but it not a strong one, given that political uncertainty in the U.S. and the plunge in crude oil prices are two bearish factors that will continue to weigh on market sentiment. This technical rebound might not sustain for long."

asia.pac.2016.nov.03

  • Falling oil prices could crack $40 and get OPEC talking deal (CNBC) Oil prices plunged after a record 14.4-million barrel jump in U.S. crude supply, and they could continue to fall toward $40 a barrel or lower, unless OPEC and global producers make progress on a production deal. The U.S. government's Energy Information Administration Wednesday reported the record inventory increase in its weekly report for Oct. 28. The number is volatile, but there was also a two million barrel increase in U.S. imports to 9 million barrels, the highest since 2012.

U.S.

  • Cubs Win 1st Series Title Since 1908, Beat Indians in Game 7 (Bloomberg) The Cubs gave up a 3-run lead and then won it in the 10th inning. This made Cleveland the only team to lose two 7-game World Series in extra innings (also lost in 1997 to the Florida Marlins in 13 innings). The last time the Cubs won a World Series the games could have been attended by William Jennings Bryan and Mark Twain. Babe Ruth was 13 years old, my father was 5 and my grandfather, who was born before the Civil War started, was 48.

  • UPDATE: Federal elections to cost just under $7 billion, CRP forecasts (opensecrets.org) Of the total being spent, about 1/3 comes from the candidates' campaigns per se, and nearly 2/3 from PACs (political action committees).

total.campaign.spending.1998.2016

  • Trump supporters vastly overestimate unemployment - and they blame politicians for it (The Washington Post) The highest rate of gross overestimation was among Trump supporters exposed to a different experimental framing. People in this blame treatment were told that “rather than being a purely economic issue, unemployment is mainly a political issue - so if the level of unemployment is high and there are lots of people who lost their jobs, politicians and the government share much of the blame." When unemployment was described thusly, both unemployed Clinton supporters and Trump supporters increased their estimate of the unemployment rate, but Trump supporters much more. Econintersect: If the unemployment rate were calculated based on the entire population from age 19-64 (rather than the calculated labor force), the current unemployment rate would be 21%. So every one of these groups thinks the unemployment rate is higher than it could ever be unless you expanded the population to 16-69. If that is done the number would become 29% and only the Trump supporters would be outside the maximum theoretical limit.

  • Secret Recordings Fueled FBI Feud in Clinton Probe (The Wall Street Journal) Secret recordings of a suspect talking about the Clinton Foundation fueled an internal battle between FBI agents who wanted to pursue the case and corruption prosecutors who viewed the statements as worthless hearsay, people familiar with the matter said. Agents, using informants and recordings from unrelated corruption investigations, thought they had found enough material to merit aggressively pursuing the investigation into the foundation that started in summer 2015 based on claims made in a book by a conservative author called “Clinton Cash: The Untold Story of How and Why Foreign Governments and Businesses Helped Make Bill and Hillary Rich", these people said. The account of the case and resulting dispute comes from interviews with officials at multiple agencies.

  • Here’s what citizens who vote for authoritarians have in common (The Washington Post) Education is the biggest determinant. The more education you have, the less likely you are to vote for an authoritarian - even if you have an authoritarian predisposition. That difference is widest for left-wing authoritarian candidates, as you can see. Citizens with no formal schooling are about 20 percentage points more likely to vote for a left-wing authoritarian candidate than those who’ve gone to college and beyond. The education gap in support for right-wing authoritarians is less pronounced - the difference is closer to six percentage points - but it’s still statistically significant.

  • Who will win the presidency? (FiveThirtyEight) Donald Trump has gained ground on Hillary Clinton over the past week. He has opened up leads in states that were very close (Iowa, Ohio, and Arizona) and has put three other states back in play (Florida, Nevada, and North Carolina) where Clinton had sizable leads. But if he does take all six of these states he will still need more to get elected.

538.polls.only.2016.jun.nov.02

nate.silver.projections.2016.nov.02

Click for larger image.

538.winding.path.2016.jun.nov.02.600x500

​​UK

  • Brexit's 'Leave' Votes Came Amid High Inequality (Bloomberg) History might well remember 2016 as the year populism swept the developed world. While that's a political phenomenon, it's underpinned by economic trends. Income inequality seems to have played a role in Britain's June 23 vote to leave the European Union, a move seen as a populist reaction against immigration, based on new research from Brussels-based Bruegel. In the U.S., Republican Donald Trump has tapped into frustrations about lower-quality jobs with stagnating wages - and new research from White House economists shows why his rallying cry might hold so much appeal.

Venezuela

  • Venezuela's Economic Crisis: Does It Mean That the Left Has Failed? (Truth-Out.org) The basis of the collapse in Venezuela starts with a state-controlled forex exchange system which accelerated an inflationary spiral with the decline in oil prices. The other shortcomings of the socialist government, though of some significance, are just window dressing for the main event. This was not a test case for socialism. The vast majority of jobs created during the Hugo Chflvez years were in the private sector, and the size of the state has been much smaller than in France.

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