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posted on 14 August 2016

Risk, Uncertainty Separately Cloud Global Growth Forecasting

from the Dallas Fed

-- this post authored by Alexander Chudik, Enrique Mart'nez-Garc'a and Valerie Grossman

Forecasts of global growth have historically been imprecise, punctuated by periods of optimism and pessimism. Inaccuracy in forecasting partly reflects quantifiable risks to the global outlook as well as economic uncertainty.

The reliability of global economic forecasts is an increasingly pressing concern for households, firms and policymakers. The possibility of greater trade and foreign investment opportunity can affect households' income potential and factor into current consumption and savings decisions.

Firms can raise prices, expand their workforces and invest in new productive capacity based on expected strength in world demand rather than just domestic activity.

Thus, how households and firms assess global prospects has major implications for economic activity and ultimately for central bank policymaking

Growth estimates have been imprecise over the past quarter century, based on a review of the accuracy of forecasts of next-year annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth for 40 advanced and emerging economies. Forecasts for these countries are obtained from Consensus Economics' Consensus Forecasts and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The nations' collective output represents more than 80 percent of the world's GDP in purchasing power parity-adjusted terms (allowing cross-country comparisons) from 1991 to 2014.

[click on image to continue reading]

Source: http://www.dallasfed.org/ assets/ documents/ research/ eclett/ 2016/ el1609.pdf

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